Poll: which party are you going to vote in up coming elections?

Who will you be voting for?

  • Total voters
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Tunney said:
I certainly wouldn't want to live next door to a UKIP MEP!
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This graph would seem to confirm that Romanians are more likely to commit crime.

If Romanians and Bulgarians combined account for 144,000 of our 63.2m population, then you'd expect them to represent about 0.2% of the prison population.

So if they represent 0.6%, that means they are more than three times more likely to end up in prison. And we're not even comparing like-for-like as the population figure includes Bulgarians whereas your graph does not.

In short: UKIP are spot on with their comments.
 
deuse said:
This has been reported on the news for ages. But this must mean that most conservative voters are racist blah blah blah.
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That isn't how statistics work.

A greater proportion of UKIP voters are racists (compared to the rest) & it would be reasonable to assume that racists are more likely to vote for UKIP - but neither of these two assertions implies that a majority of UKIP voters are racist.

I'd argue that most UKIP voters are just disenfranchised with modern politicians & have swallowed the predictable peddled rhetoric of blaming the outsider - with a small (but still quite notable & vocal) population of outright racists.

Thompson_NCL said:
This graph would seem to confirm that Romanians are more likely to commit crime.

If Romanians and Bulgarians combined account for 144,000 of our 63.2m population, then you'd expect them to represent about 0.2% of the prison population.

So if they represent 0.6%, that means they are more than three times more likely to end up in prison. And we're not even comparing like-for-like as the population figure includes Bulgarians whereas your graph does not.

In short: UKIP are spot on with their comments.
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As above, this isn't how statistics work.

A larger proportion of immigrants tend to be younger males (who have a statistically significantly higher crime rate) - in reality you wouldn't want to live next to a male under the age of 30. In the 62 million you are including women, the elderly & children (who have a very low incarceration & economic migrant rate).

For example,

17.6% of the population is under the age of 15, 50% are women (who only account for 4% of the prison population) & 20% are over 60 (who account for 4% of the prison population).

The 16 to 30 age group represents 20% of the population but 40% of the prison, taking that into account.

"Research conducted by PKO BankPolski, Poland’s biggest retail bank, showed that over 60% of Polish immigrants into the UK were between the ages of 24 and 35 and that 40% of them had a university degree." - a good example of economic migrants. Looking at the data below, only 3% of the inmates in prison possessed a degree, making it a reasonable assumption to conclude that living next-door to an economic migrant is actually safer than living next door to a comparative in age/gender English person due to the huge difference in education levels.

www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/sn04334.pdf‎

• Approximately 5% of prisoners were educated to a level higher than A levels,
including 3% who held university degrees

Nowhere in any of these studies does it remotely support the premise that economic immigrants moving to the UK are more inclined to criminality, in-fact quite the opposite. This should not be a surprise, as if you look at the kind of friends you know who got a job abroad or moved abroad to find work you tend to see the more motivated & educated people embark on this kind of journey - not the poorly educated criminals.
 
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Thompson_NCL said:
This graph would seem to confirm that Romanians are more likely to commit crime.

If Romanians and Bulgarians combined account for 144,000 of our 63.2m population, then you'd expect them to represent about 0.2% of the prison population.

So if they represent 0.6%, that means they are more than three times more likely to end up in prison. And we're not even comparing like-for-like as the population figure includes Bulgarians whereas your graph does not.

In short: UKIP are spot on with their comments.
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Lol someone trying to be too clever , the met have said before that 97% of cash point crime is Romanians.
 
ubersonic said:
That's a Kardashian not a Romanian
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As in, Kim?

elmarko said:
:D

kSaFpZ1.jpg
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Bah, beaten :(
 
Thompson_NCL said:
This graph would seem to confirm that Romanians are more likely to commit crime.

If Romanians and Bulgarians combined account for 144,000 of our 63.2m population, then you'd expect them to represent about 0.2% of the prison population.

So if they represent 0.6%, that means they are more than three times more likely to end up in prison. And we're not even comparing like-for-like as the population figure includes Bulgarians whereas your graph does not.

In short: UKIP are spot on with their comments.
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You're much more likely to be of Irish or Jamaican nationality and be in prison than Romanian. Why that is, is likely to be a non trivial question.

Source: ONS 2012 https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...087/omsq-q1-2012-prison-population-tables.xls

badcompany said:
Lol someone trying to be too clever , the met have said before that 97% of cash point crime is Romanians.
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That's fine, but saying it isn't enough, I want a source.
 
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