Winter 2015 - Weather Predictions

I hope the bad weather does stay away until after the festive period as getting boxes from the docks is hell when the wind/fog/snow comes.
 
Latest runs showing more areas of high pressure building to the north of the UK at the end of the year - so far not the right configuration to allow really cold and snowy weather off the pole but enough that there could be some snow showers possibly building up to more. Also a spur of high pressure for awhile running north/south to the west of the UK just after Christmas day that might allow for limited intrusion of colder/wintery weather.
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/30594705

BBC are now suggesting we could be seeing the coldest air of winter so far by Sunday after a wind and windy Saturday with some hill snow it looks sunny for most on Sunday though the south could see some rain a a bit of snow. Next week they are going for it to be cold with the winds easing allowing some frost and fog
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:D What a difference from last Winter, heading into 2015 is looking good so far

Anyone take a look at the models as we head towards 2015? Looks like a huge scandi high with possible easterly winds.. Just one of many possible outcomes, it could go either way, could go mild!

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Update from previous post and extracted references to discuss progress :)

So, those attempts, especially by the old prototype GFS, to prematurely flatten the pattern are proving as wrong as they seemed

As suspected in recent days, the continued drive forward in -ve tendency AAM and consistently predicted dotted progress of GWO through Phases 1 and 2 at the close of the year fully support the increased amplification signal in the Atlantic which has gained modelled ascendency over the last 48 hours - with ridging into Scandinavia, on the back of the SE tracking low next weekend..


This second orbit through Phase 2 in higher amplitude proving more beneficial than the first one (signal very muted) we see for Christmas itself - although, that said, a fine crisp day and frost morning and evening is infinitely much more welcome for the day than the rain and strong gales last year

Progress into Phase 3 supports, as we start the New Year, some westerly push increasing Atlantic influence thereafter as some vortex energy heads back over the pole towards Canada - but this is where it might get even more interesting as we look at undercut potential of heights by this time bedding in over Scandinavia to UK.

The -ve frictional torque which precipitates the -ve mountain torgue over the US (wave 2 breaking) which in turn forces the GWO through phases 1/2 signposts the positive momentum transport indicated between 50 and 60 degrees north - but also it supports the increase in easterly trade winds indicated around 30 degrees south which increases sub tropical Jetstream flow.


This GEFS produced prediction, is a favourably enough divvied up jet energy budget, to underpin latest ECM suggestions of split Atlantic flow in the 10 day + term and support for maintaining the blocking structures across Scandinavia into UK. On this basis, we should view any modelled sinking of the cold high to be over progressive, (and short-lived should it occur, at the very least).

It translates to an excellent holding pattern of surface cold while the stakes on that New Year polar vortex bonfire rise ever higher to get arctic upper cold towards us.

Could we be cued for a cold anticyclone waiting to be sucked northwards by Arctic/Svalbard Heights as zonal winds across the polar field dive to negative reverse polarity in response to the combination of wave 2 uppercut from the troposphere (MT) and then next, a singeing head blow this time from the upper stratosphere?

Its a stratosphere thread watch here in this respect - but it is not at all beyond the bounds of possibility as a longer term evolution. In the meantime plenty of interest and a little wiggle room available to keep interests up for wintry prospects on the back of the weekend low and NSSC snow potential thereafter :wink: :D

A very Happy Christmas to everyone :smiliz58: :)
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https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/8...ussion-the-final-stretch-to-christmas/page-49

:D
 
Looking like Northern US and Canada could get hit by quite a polar vortex type scenario the week after next or so - still highly variable as to what we'll get but nothing showing significant cold/snowy weather other than brief bursts of cold and possibilities of some hill snow.
 
From the met office

UK Outlook for Sunday 18 Jan 2015 to Tuesday 27 Jan 2015:


A largely dry and cold day for most on Sunday, although there will be showers around northern and western coasts, falling as hail and sleet near immediate coasts and snow further inland. There is also a low risk of some more persistent rain and perhaps snow moving across southern and central areas for a time. Through next week, there is a trend towards generally colder conditions than of late bringing an increased risk of snow, more especially in northern and eastern areas. Temperatures will be generally below average with overnight frosts, locally severe. Winds will be generally moderate, but strong at times near coasts and heavy shower. There may also be some milder and wetter interludes.
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Probably nothing will come of it but after the storm coming through on Wednesday there is a period of northern blocking which if it lasts for any length of time could let colder weather take hold:

theweatheroutlook.com said:
This morning’s 6z GFSP shows pressure building to the north of the UK and across Scandinavia allowing bitterly cold air to flood in from the east. The chart below is for 18GMT on Thursday 22nd January and has the -10C 850hPa isotherm advancing westwards over most of the UK.
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Rroff said:
Probably nothing will come of it but after the storm coming through on Wednesday there is a period of northern blocking which if it lasts for any length of time could let colder weather take hold:
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This is also a good factor, it happened in 2010

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el_dazza said:
I vote we all listen to the Daily Express. They seem to know of IMPENDING WEATHER DOOM FOR WEEKS TO COME and that there will be EIGHTY FEET OF SNOW IN 5 HOURS TO BATTER BRITAIN.

Then again we could just look outside.

I do think it'll be reasonably mild again. As long as it's nothing like 2010 then I won't mind.
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It seems to be 99% perpetuated by their writer called "Nathan Rao", every single year he warns of both a "THREE MONTH FREEZE" and then "HOTTEST SUMMER IN 400 YEARS" or variations thereof.
 
Winter 2015 will be awful, maybe 16-22deg during the day, and dropping down to a single figure overnight ....
 
D.P. said:
So far the winter is going exactly as I predicted, I.e. As the metoffice and ECMF predicted.
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Going by that, the met office are predicting cold weather to hit as from this weekend onwards. Some places had thunderstorms and snow last night

Then there's this

- MET UPDATE - Strong signal for colder or much colder weather next week, albeit extremely low skill on snow risk in any one area (not even worth speculating!).
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Looking more promising than anything we've had in the last few months, still a lot of mixed models for it though.
 
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