LOL. The lefties seem to think he's the other JC reincarnate (no, not Jezzer Clarkson, the dude in the New Testament) so who knows, maybe he is.Someone should tell Corbyn he can't win the 2010 electionUnless he's a Time Lord.
Typo edited.
The labour Leader thread...
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Typo edited.
Someone should tell Corbyn he can't win the 2010 election
No chance as he's stuck in time.
My read on the last election result was that the Tories have the distinction of being the least unappealing alternative. Their vote was hardly a ringing endorsement, but then, neither was Labour's. Both, by the way, marginally increased vote share, but the Tories gained a couple of dozen seats and Labour lost a couple of dozen. It wasn't a direct transfer, though. It was more complex than that.
I suspect that the relevance to the leadership race would be a consideration of, after several years of "austerity", quite why the Tories went from largest party and coalition, to an overall majority even if a slender one?
Something about Labour 2015 was distinctly unappealing to the electorate. But what? A good chunk of it was losing Scotland to the SNP. The reasons for that, in my opinion, make it unlikely they'll gain large numbers of those lost seats back any time soon. And if Labour can't, it means they've got to do much, much better taking seats from the Tories, and that means they have to do much better in those marginal areas that Blair won, several times, and Brown and Miliband couldn't reach, like the South East, and East Anglia. It's not just those areas, but without inroads in those areas, it's hard to see Labour winnng in 2020.
So .... in areas traditionally centre, or slightly right of centre, will Corbyn reach them when Brown or Miliband couldn't? Standard electoral logic would suggest it's highly unlikely.
If JC wins, as seems likely, the next four years leading up to Gen Elec 2020 should be ..... interesting.
I wasn't arguing Labour's chances of a majority. I was arguing that, with such a narrow majority and coming out of such a close election, it would be wrong for anyone to think that the Conservatives are somehow safe, or that Labour are somehow finished. The reality is, political power in this country is currently balanced on a knife-edge.
I can't see Labour winning a majority in 2020 either, but it wouldn't take much of a swing to render the Conservatives unable to form a government. The only people that would back them for a minority government are the DUP, so they can't come any more than maybe 8 short of a majority. More than that and the most likely outcome is a Labour government of some variety.
With that in mind, 2020 most certainly is up for grabs, even without Scotland. There are more than enough Labour/Tory marginals out there to swing the result.
i wouldn't be so sure about that, I've noticed the usually very very very labour attitude is starting to change especially among the lads buying houses.
Soldato
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No chance as he's stuck in time.
Somewhere in the 1970s judging by his policies.
The Mid Staffs crisis occurred between January 2005 and March 2009.
Andy Burnham became was Secretary of State for Health between from June 2009 until May 2010.
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The lack of boundary changes has had an impact that currently favours labour (compare the 1992 and 1997 elections results
, John Major gets 42% of the vote in 92 with 336 seats yet Blair gets 43% with 418 seats). They were meant to be revised in the last parliament but the Lib Dems didn't back them as they were protesting over the cut in the higher rate of tax I think. 2015 could and should have been a lot worse for Labour.
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If the Torys change the boundaries as they wanted last time, Labour will suffer more, so thats a good thing in my books.
not a chance, the tories will think it's Christmas come early if that lunatic gets elected
I'm a Labour man but I don't want Corbyn as leader. I hate the way these hard left socialists attack anyone and everyone who does not agree with Corbyn as if they were Tories and not fellow Labour supporters.
I don't want to be apart of all that.
I don't want to be apart of all that.
Tories are scared, now they have opposition with a backbone that will actually challenge the evil tory policies.
Almost all of the advantage was in Scotland which is now SNP and boundary positions are not the only factor skewing it one way or another.
They weren't "meant to be revised"; the Tories wanted to revise them to help tilt the election in their favour. The Lib Dems refused to back them after the Tories broke their coalition agreement deal to back Lord's reform (although Clegg's reforms were dire so that's not too bad a thing).
Tories are scared, now they have opposition with a backbone that will actually challenge the evil tory policies.
That would make for a great pantomime.
Wasn't the remit to make all constituencies of similar size? The boundary commission would be responsible for implementing the actual boundaries. So it isn't really about tilting it in their favour but more about removing the advantage that Labour currently have.
Tories are scared, now they have opposition with a backbone that will actually challenge the evil tory policies.
Why would they care? They have a majority government, so they can force through any legislation they want.
The expected composition of the new boundaries would have heavily skewed the arithmetic in the Tories favour so that Labour needed a much larger %age of the vote than they did to win. There's also an issue with lower registration rates in urban areas so the constituencies won't really be equal in size anyway.
They have a very slim majority, indeed, and likely to wither before we see the end of this parliament. Cameron needs to tread carefully to keep all wings of his party on side.
They lost their first vote of this term just this week...so, it seems they can't just do what they want.
Which is a good thing.