Poll: The Official OcUK EU Referendum Exit poll (and results discussion thread)

[adam cool dude]

One thing this is truly showing is how much the rest of Joe public has had with London.

 

[fornowagain]

https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/eu-referendum-rolling-forecasts-1a625014af55#.ytioqorpy

EU referendum rolling forecasts
03:00 Fifth forecast update
My predictions continue to be much more pessimistic for Remain than the betting markets, though they seem to be in between estimates from Michael Thrasher and JP Morgan.
Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0
(81 of 382 areas reporting.)
Predicted vote share for Remain: 47.1 percent.
(90% prediction interval: 46.1 to 48.1 percent)

 

[Gilly]

One thing this is truly showing is how much the rest of Joe public has had with London.

Plus how important indyref was

 

[StriderX]

One thing this is truly showing is how much the rest of Joe public has had with London.

Time to make it a citystate?

 

[dowie]

We need to see the big cities return yet. The London results could (but probably won't) kick this over to Remain. I expect people to start calling it about 6.

Some London results are already in... Birmingham could be interesting and is supposed to be coming soon...

 

[StriderX]

Sterling crashing again.

 

[robfosters]

Still think London will swing it. Depends on the ratio of non-London areas to London areas, if you get my drift.

 

[datalol-jack]

Aberdeen

 

[robfosters]

Odds coming back to neck and neck.

 

[Chojin]

Going from the BBC map looks like England is going to be a sea of blue except for London - similar to the Tory vote last year.

 

[fornowagain]

Peter Kellner, the former YouGov president who was predicted a remain win earlier (see 10.15pm), has changed his mind.


Peter Kellner @PeterKellner1
Seems we are heading for result bad for UK, bad for pollsters and (least important) embarrassing for me

 

[robfosters]

Leave just gone Betfair fav.

 

[vincent1989]

Well leave have got another London remain vote in the bank at the minute.

 

[Mynight]

If we do vote out I'm certainly interested to see what happens with other countries in the EU. IIrc the French were considering a referendum.

Hope we stay in though personally.

 

[robfosters]

Well leave have got another London remain vote in the bank at the minute.

Could be a couple of votes. Not every single borough will be 80/20.

 

[vincent1989]

Lots of the areas around the west midlands coming in for leave, fingers crossed for brum!

 

[squerble]

@christopherhope
A former minister in David Cameron's Cabinet tells me: "Cameron is toast." #EUreferendum

@christopherhope
Tomorrow will be huge for the PM. A small win and he has to set a leaving date. A Brexit and he can't last. #EUreferendum

 

[Akagi]

Well leave have got another London remain vote in the bank at the minute.

Eh?

 

[Gilly]

10 million votes, leave lead by over 150k

 

[Tombstone]

If we do vote out I'm certainly interested to see what happens with other countries in the EU. IIrc the French were considering a referendum.

Hope we stay in though personally.

I think there were 4 other countries considering one. Could well cause a domino effect that spells the end of the EU