Brexit thread - what happens next

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jl10000 said:
Keiser report Brexit special


"We are joined by Mitch Feierstein in order to dissect the economic, monetary and financial consequences of the ‘shocking’ Brexit vote"
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As much as I don't like RT, Max is a legend (possibly not for all the right reasons).. Putin is surely loving this..
 
In answer to the original question, here is my uneducated take (just fact finding abilities) of the things we have to do now, please note this isn't *scare tactics* as the vote is done.

This is drawing logical conclusions from actual real facts:

  • Re-establish global trading relations - ETA 10 years
  • Rewrite the last 40 years of law - this will have to be done fast and will be done not by our democratically elected members of parliament (there isn't time) but by government... aka... un-elected civil servants.
  • Spend billions of £££ propping up our economy.
  • Make massive concessions (most likely in the form of tax) to convince banks and big business not to flee the country.
  • Find funding for all the places that were EU backed, science and research centres, farming etc..
  • More social welfare funds as unemployment rises.
  • As prices go up, people will spend less money and we will be peering down the barrel of a multi year recession.
 
doofer said:
I would say Iceland, Switzerland, Norway and the UK would have some serious Financial Clout, probably more than enough together to squeeze the EU for some very good deals, better deals that the EU would concede to each of those Countries alone. But what do I know, I just tell people to go to Rhyl whenever they ask 'Spec me a holiday'.
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EEA countries can negotiate individual deals. They do not need to act as a group.
 
dowie said:
no he's not said that, that would involve allowing freedom of movement which we will be pushing for concessions on - it is going to be a hybrid agreement (which I predicted months ago in Burnsey's thread)
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Do you reckon we could squeeze in retaining the passporting of international banking licenses into that agreement. Would be crucial imo.
 
regulus said:
Yes, but try and put that genie back in the bottle. Try and explain that to your average Leave voter.
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I think the sort of leave voter that would get violent over this would be placated by just being told we'd left, hand sackfuls of cash to The Sun, The Mail and The Express for them to peddle the lie and then forget about it.
 
fail at the internets said:
Why would the public accept joining the EEA what's wrong with just joining the EFTA like Switzerland?
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The uk was originally one of the EFTA founding members, it was what people voted for in the original referendum. A block of countries with free trade between them. The EFTA then had to agree to freedom of movement when it made a deal of free trade with the EU block.

So joining the EFTA means freedom of movement still.

But the EFTA is a pure trade union and not a political union alike the EU.
 
Jono8 said:
So we have all this upheaval just to shed some EU legislation but in return have NO say in what goes on in the EU.

Total and utter lunacy.
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no... you're all just misinterpreting a simple article

feel like banging my head against the wall here but we're not going to be in the EEA - we're going to have to come to a compromise agreement - BoJo's article talks about a points based system! They're unlikely to grant complete access on that basis.
 
Moses said:
You misunderstand there to be a perk of an emergency break we'd actually be able to apply. Great.

With the being able to negotiate trade deals bit, that also means not being involved in EU external trade deals, right? So we can't join in the 500m bloc and benefit from the scale of that market? What makes you think our ability to be more nimble when trying to arrange trade deals will make us more money than sacrificing that right and being able to negotiate with the EU as one bloc?

Then laws in fewer areas, but in the areas we have their laws we have basically no control. Great.
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Forget the emergency brake. Stop working yourself up over it. It is a legal right and doubt it will be used unless something serious happens.

EEA countries get the same access that the EU has but can also arrange their own trade deals if desired.
 
Caged said:
I think the sort of leave voter that would get violent over this would be placated by just being told we'd left, hand sackfuls of cash to The Sun, The Mail and The Express for them to peddle the lie and then forget about it.
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You're right imo. Then get their boss to sack them and tell them it's all their fault lol.
 
JBod said:
In answer to the original question, here is my uneducated take (just fact finding abilities) of the things we have to do now, please note this isn't *scare tactics* as the vote is done.

This is drawing logical conclusions from actual real facts:

  • Re-establish global trading relations - ETA 10 years
  • Rewrite the last 40 years of law - this will have to be done fast and will be done not by our democratically elected members of parliament (there isn't time) but by government... aka... un-elected civil servants.
  • Spend billions of £££ propping up our economy.
  • Make massive concessions (most likely in the form of tax) to convince banks and big business not to flee the country.
  • Find funding for all the places that were EU backed, science and research centres, farming etc..
  • More social welfare funds as unemployment rises.
  • As prices go up, people will spend less money and we will be peering down the barrel of a multi year recession.
Click to expand...

You're forgetting overseeing the breakup of the UK.
 
regulus said:
Yes, but try and put that genie back in the bottle. Try and explain that to your average Leave voter.

This thing is a complete mess. DC shot his mouth off with the 'must evoke article 50 immediately upon a Leave vote' rhetoric. He made it crystal clear.

I understand the technicalities. I think the actualities are more complicated.
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maybe but waht is not complicated is that the EU will never let us access the single market unless we accept free movement, that is not complicated it is set in stone and will never change as it is the fundamental corner stone of the EU single market,

We can carry on with our delusions of grandeur and nostalgia of the old empire and how the UK has influence, but in this case it is black and white. You want single market access then you take free movement. Any deal cut will always have freedome of movement in it, if single market access is the end goal. So yes it might be complicated if the UK wants to to WTO route, but if its going EEA or EFTA it's taking freedom of movement lock stock and barrel. People need to start realising this.
 
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