Brexit thread - what happens next

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wildman said:
he can suggest that system, but again as it doesn't constitute Free Movement as laid out under the EU legislation then it means no free single market access.
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and I'm not claiming he'll be able to get complete single market access... my prediction for a while has been that there could easily be some hybrid deal
 
dowie said:
not in percentage terms no...

you can see where this is going though - Boris is going to sell himself as the unity leader... he's then going to pitch the idea of a hybrid deal as a compromise and nod to the fact that nearly half the country wants to stay... so he'll also then have an excuse as to why he's going to end up with a deal whereby plenty of EU citizens will still be able to move here quite easily
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Then hell ignore half of each side, the most vocal and most vitriolic... Glorious clap of hands.
 
B&W said:
If Boris or whoever it is don't leave the EU then they've just gave the next GE to UKIP.

Unless some kind of deal is done which enables us to carry on without accepting immigrants, can't see that happening.

Junckers is the one who needs to be shot, stubborn, corrupt old *******.
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But at the same token you could argue that the Tory party is somewhat screwed since BOTH anti-EU and pro-EU people would feel betrayed by them in different ways. The voters who want to get out of the EU might gravitate to UKIP,but all the people who want to stay in the EU(younger people,and the wealthier people) might gravitate towards pro-EU parties. If more younger people feel they need to vote after seeing what happened in the referendum things might not be so clear cut IMHO.
 
Macro said:
*whoosh* the point being in one breath you say 1.4m is not a slim lead and then say 3.5m is an insignificant number to be ignored. Jeez, try to keep up.
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Who are you yapping at n00b? I am Oct 2002 - Forum God - recognise :p

Your 3.5m figure is irrelevant because the petition is irrelevant, not because 3.5m is insignificant.

Jeez, try to keep up.
 
BubbySoup said:
The petition has been outed as a bot script run by 4chan/anonymous "for the lulz"
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Even if it was a legitimate petition, the whole premise of the thing should only affect any future Referenda in the country.

To change the rules on a referendum that has had its ballot counted would be shifting the goal posts after the game is over, then declaring the goal invalid that was originally scored.
 
The voters gravitating to UKIP also ruin Labour, so its a **** show all round.

The only hilarity i can take from this is if ultimately we do get a labour/SNP coalition... something that pushed people to the Toffs in the first place.
 
Macro said:
Out of 60m it is when you consider 3.5m have already signed a petition to re run the referendum, a number which Brexit supporters are calling "insignificant". Cake and eat it springs to mind.
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no.
 
Mauller said:
Even if it was a legitimate petition, the whole premise of the thing should only affect any future Referenda in the country.

To change the rules on a referendum that has had its ballot counted would be shifting the goal posts after the game is over, then declaring the goal invalid that was originally scored.
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You're aware the petition was set up by a Brexit supporter?
 
The Mad Rapper said:
Of course he does. There is a betrayal narrative coming; certain sections of the electorate are not going to get what they thought they were voting for.
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I was very much in favour of Remain, but I also don't believe that one should hold vote after vote until you get the result you want. Britain voted Leave. They didn't vote, "go back to the EU and threaten to leave and hope we get nice things because of it". They voted Leave. It was a terrible decision on the part of the country and it might be a great example of how the entire Referendum was massively simplistic... But it is what it is and any attempt by any government not to honour that is a betrayal of democracy.

UK is leaving the EU. I think Scotland will break away and remain, separately. Suggesting that the government will not honour the referendum is heading down a very thorny path and you're basically saying we're not a democratic country at that point.

Pound has continued to sink, by the way. Down around 1.34 at the moment. Still ostriches over in the GPU forum insisting this is a temporary blib and it will soon be back where it was. :(
 
CAT-THE-FIFTH said:
But at the same token you could argue that the Tory party is somewhat screwed since BOTH anti-EU and pro-EU people would feel betrayed by them in different ways. The voters who want to get out of the EU might gravitate to UKIP,but all the people who want to stay in the EU(younger people,and the wealthier people) might gravitate towards pro-EU parties. If more younger people feel they need to vote after seeing what happened in the referendum things might not be so clear cut IMHO.
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Boris isn't stupid, he's just incredibly good at playing a stupid person. He knows he can't go for the full leave option. He wants to be PM, he's going to run on a platform of leaving, get elected probably because this country is awful, and then negotiate something worse than we have now because he has no choice, but it won't be a full Leave option because then all his business buddies will crucify him and he won't have a job to go to after his term.
 
dowie said:
and I'm not claiming he'll be able to get complete single market access... my prediction for a while has been that there could easily be some hybrid deal
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there will be no access period unless he takes free movement. Hybrid deals would mean he has to forget about negotiating with the EU and start negotiating with individual member states, which under the EU framework they can;t do, only the EEA/EFTA members can , so we will have deals with Norway, Iceland, Lichtenstein and Switzerland.

As much as Germany might want to cut a deal direct with the UK they can't unless they also leave the EU and become an EEA/EFTA member.

There is no hybrid deal to be had that includes any access to any EU markets other than the current EEA ones unless the UK takes free movement.
 
Cern said:
You're aware the petition was set up by a Brexit supporter?
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Still the same, you can't hold a referendum then decide to change the rules then apply them to the referendum that just passed. Then decide to have another based on the new rules.

You are just shifting the goalposts.

Also, the premise of that petition and the rules it advises are unworkable, you could easily end up in an endless loop of referenda if everyone vehemently voted.
 
lol his solution to the immigration crisis is simple we implement a points system.

We retain EU free movement (remember this is actually less than half all immigration anyway).

We have a points system for the rest of the world and he gets to say we have our borders back.

Very little actually changes.
 
wildman said:
there will be no access period unless he takes free movement. Hybrid deals would mean he has to forget about negotiating with the EU and start negotiating with individual member states, which under the EU framework they can;t do, only the EEA/EFTA members can , so we will have deals with Norway, Iceland, Lichtenstein and Switzerland.

As much as Germany might want to cut a deal direct with the UK they can't unless they also leave the EU and become an EEA/EFTA member.

There is no hybrid deal to be had that includes any access to any EU markets other than the current EEA ones unless the UK takes free movement.
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well that will probably change then since various EU members are rather keen to work out some association agreement as we've already seen from the comments from Germany, Iceland....
 
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