Brexit thread - what happens next

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anticonscience said:
So why say there would be an emergency budget?
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There would've been an emergency budget had article 50 been invoked already.

What's the point in an emergency budget having seen the result of a referendum but no article 50 employed? The fiscal policy will change when trade agreements and so on change. They haven't yet.

Glaucus said:
rebate doesn't come into it. we pay essentially the same per head after the rebate.

most laws wont need updating, as
A) we wanted most of them, we voted for some insane number in the 90+% range
B) most of these "laws" are actually regulations to do with trade and those we will have to abide by.

and on the last point if we want access to the single market, which is vital for us, due to uk being a service based economy, we have to accept free movement,
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The laws will still need review, surely? We'll also need to expand the civil service to cover ourselves what the EU were doing. My understanding is that the civil service has been driven down in headcount under recent governments because of our links into Europe.

We have two ways into the market. Either freedom of movement or to pay tariffs. Neither of which appeal...
 
Gilly said:
So I need to write some things down to ensure I've understood.

  • The money that Norway pays in order to gain access, per capita, is the same as our EU subscription
  • Given the above, not only will we continue to pay ~£19b per annum in order to trade with the EU it will cost us more because there will be no rebates and no EU grants awarded to deprived areas
  • Also given the above, we will need to fund the thousands of individuals tasked with the updating of law, the securing and managing of trade agreements outside the EU, and we'll be trading at defecit for approx. 10 years while these agreements are bottomed out
    [*]It's likely that our AAA credit rating will not survive given what happened during the last recession and we're looking at the real possibility of a depression
  • None of the Leave campaigners looking like potential Cons leaders have any appetite to reduce immigration

So the only impacts we can see are likely are that the moves will cost us for decades and immigration will continue either at the level it is at the moment - or even at increased levels given some of the things said over the weekend.

Is that all about right?
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We've already lost our AAA rating, Moodys has downgraded us since the referendum to Negative.
 
deuse said:
That guy is talking crap. We can do what Canada has done ;)
Come on people think out the box.

And since the EU sell far more to us then we do to them. I don't see a problem
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Have you tried to drive to Canada lately?
Im sure if you think outside of the box you'll figure out a way

Yeah the EU do sell more to us , ergo we need their stuff, ergo if they charge more for it we'll pay

Giz
 
Gilly said:
So I need to write some things down to ensure I've understood.

  • The money that Norway pays in order to gain access, per capita, is the same as our EU subscription
  • Given the above, not only will we continue to pay ~£19b per annum in order to trade with the EU it will cost us more because there will be no rebates and no EU grants awarded to deprived areas
  • Also given the above, we will need to fund the thousands of individuals tasked with the updating of law, the securing and managing of trade agreements outside the EU, and we'll be trading at defecit for approx. 10 years while these agreements are bottomed out
  • It's likely that our AAA credit rating will not survive given what happened during the last recession and we're looking at the real possibility of a depression
  • None of the Leave campaigners looking like potential Cons leaders have any appetite to reduce immigration

So the only impacts we can see are likely are that the moves will cost us for decades and immigration will continue either at the level it is at the moment - or even at increased levels given some of the things said over the weekend.

Is that all about right?
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That's how I understand it.
 
Originally posted by Boris Johnson.

"I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe, and always will be.

"There will still be intense and intensifying European co-operation and partnership in a huge number of fields: the arts, the sciences, the universities, and on improving the environment.

"EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected, and the same goes for British citizens living in the EU.

"British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI - the BDI - has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market.

"The only change - and it will not come in any great rush - is that the UK will extricate itself from the EU's extraordinary and opaque system of legislation: the vast and growing corpus of law enacted by a European Court of Justice from which there can be no appeal."
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Oh Boris.

Source
 
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Gilly said:
So I need to write some things down to ensure I've understood.

  • The money that Norway pays in order to gain access, per capita, is the same as our EU subscription
  • Given the above, not only will we continue to pay ~£19b per annum in order to trade with the EU it will cost us more because there will be no rebates and no EU grants awarded to deprived areas
  • Also given the above, we will need to fund the thousands of individuals tasked with the updating of law, the securing and managing of trade agreements outside the EU, and we'll be trading at defecit for approx. 10 years while these agreements are bottomed out
  • It's likely that our AAA credit rating will not survive given what happened during the last recession and we're looking at the real possibility of a depression
  • None of the Leave campaigners looking like potential Cons leaders have any appetite to reduce immigration

So the only impacts we can see are likely are that the moves will cost us for decades and immigration will continue either at the level it is at the moment - or even at increased levels given some of the things said over the weekend.

Is that all about right?
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Yup. This whole thing is lunacy to the highest order.
 
Gilly said:
I don't think there's any real need for that. All we can do right now is share opinions. Instead of attacking someone else's just counter it with your own.
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But yet when the salty remain voters continue to post swiping remarks such as "the idiots that voted leave" or other comments that insinuate that all leave voters didn't do their research, working class or whatever nonsense is being spouted in this thread...

That's all fine?

I've posted my opinion many times across the threads we've had on this matter, I could continue posting until I'm blue in the face, but Facebook qualified economists and the like on here will continue to ignore it and post their opinions as if it's fact
 
Gilly said:
So I need to write some things down to ensure I've understood.

  • The money that Norway pays in order to gain access, per capita, is the same as our EU subscription
  • Given the above, not only will we continue to pay ~£19b per annum in order to trade with the EU it will cost us more because there will be no rebates and no EU grants awarded to deprived areas
  • Also given the above, we will need to fund the thousands of individuals tasked with the updating of law, the securing and managing of trade agreements outside the EU, and we'll be trading at defecit for approx. 10 years while these agreements are bottomed out
  • It's likely that our AAA credit rating will not survive given what happened during the last recession and we're looking at the real possibility of a depression
  • None of the Leave campaigners looking like potential Cons leaders have any appetite to reduce immigration

So the only impacts we can see are likely are that the moves will cost us for decades and immigration will continue either at the level it is at the moment - or even at increased levels given some of the things said over the weekend.

Is that all about right?
Click to expand...

not necessarily, I don't think it is politically feasible to simply go for an EEA solution with no curbs on immigration - we're going to have to compromise somewhere

and those aren't the only impacts, negotiating trade arrangements unilaterally with other countries is a major one and they don't have to be held up/stalled by or skewed by other vested interests from other EU countries that don't affect us
 
S&P changed their prediction on us maintaining AAA to negative, but haven't actually changed it. I thought the other rating agencies had already dropped us to AA well before this referendum happened?
 
Gilly said:
So I need to write some things down to ensure I've understood.

  • The money that Norway pays in order to gain access, per capita, is the same as our EU subscription
  • Given the above, not only will we continue to pay ~£19b per annum in order to trade with the EU it will cost us more because there will be no rebates and no EU grants awarded to deprived areas
  • Also given the above, we will need to fund the thousands of individuals tasked with the updating of law, the securing and managing of trade agreements outside the EU, and we'll be trading at defecit for approx. 10 years while these agreements are bottomed out
  • It's likely that our AAA credit rating will not survive given what happened during the last recession and we're looking at the real possibility of a depression
  • None of the Leave campaigners looking like potential Cons leaders have any appetite to reduce immigration

So the only impacts we can see are likely are that the moves will cost us for decades and immigration will continue either at the level it is at the moment - or even at increased levels given some of the things said over the weekend.

Is that all about right?
Click to expand...

Yes, no point in trying to point out any facts...its like auguring with religion...
 
Steedie said:
But yet when the salty remain voters continue to post swiping remarks such as "the idiots that voted leave" or other comments that insinuate that all leave voters didn't do their research, working class or whatever nonsense is being spouted in this thread...

That's all fine?

I've posted my opinion many times across the threads we've had on this matter, I could continue posting until I'm blue in the face, but Facebook qualified economists and the like on here will continue to ignore it and post their opinions as if it's fact
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There are leave voters in this thread that freely admit that they struggled to understand and didn't have time/knowledge enough to fully research. You are right though, to broad-brush all leave voters like that is wrong.

It's a very fast moving thread, and you must understand that makes it difficult to moderate. If you see something you don't lik then report it and that ensures it will be reviewed.
 
I find it strange that the young have been victimised by the current government, they never listen to the under 35s now all of a sudden they are being put on the media and using them to try and change people view.
 
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