Brexit thread - what happens next

[deuse]

I'd expected it but missed the confirmation of it.

Are you sure?

Read a post up from yours

 

[Freakbro]

With reference to our credit ratings

Standard & Poor's credit rating for the United Kingdom stands at AAA with negative outlook. Moody's credit rating for the United Kingdom was last set at Aa1 with negative outlook. Fitch's credit rating for the United Kingdom was last reported at AA+ with stable outlook.

 

[Gilly]

Read a post up from yours

They were posted at the same time but yes, I've now seen it.

 

[toshj]

So I need to write some things down to ensure I've understood.

• The money that Norway pays in order to gain access, per capita, is the same as our EU subscription
• Given the above, not only will we continue to pay ~£19b per annum in order to trade with the EU it will cost us more because there will be no rebates and no EU grants awarded to deprived areas
• Also given the above, we will need to fund the thousands of individuals tasked with the updating of law, the securing and managing of trade agreements outside the EU, and we'll be trading at defecit for approx. 10 years while these agreements are bottomed out
• It's likely that our AAA credit rating will not survive given what happened during the last recession and we're looking at the real possibility of a depression
• None of the Leave campaigners looking like potential Cons leaders have any appetite to reduce immigration

So the only impacts we can see are likely are that the moves will cost us for decades and immigration will continue either at the level it is at the moment - or even at increased levels given some of the things said over the weekend.

Is that all about right?

The vote also wholly undermines London as the European centre of finance, as the international banks won't be able to undertake trading activities with European counterparties or clients.

Also what's worrying is that of the UK banks, their respetive HQs are all flexible other than Lloyds. Barclays can easily move to the US, HSBC could feasibly move theirs to Asia, as could Standard Chartered. RBS could see themselves based in an independent Scotland.

Most of the banks had previously stated their intentions to remain in London, but that could all change upon us Brexiting.

 

[dowie]

With reference to our credit ratings

yup and yet the world hasn't ended and money is still flowing into UK gilts...

 

[do_ron_ron]

In other news Switzerland has withdrawn it's application.

It's not all roses for the EU.

Switzerland has withdrawn it's application for FULL membership but will continue it's Norwegian type Associate membership. They still want access to the single market and have to pay the price but get no say.

 

[Freefaller]

It may have been asked already, but what does "taking back Britain" mean? Or "taking back our country"? A few of my friends have said this and I don't know what they mean.

I genuinely don't understand that expression in this context. If it has been answered I apologise, and if you can point me to the post I should be most grateful.

 

[Freakbro]

Why? Do you still blindly trust the ratings agencies post-2008?

UK gilt yields are down again today.

Not that I personally trust them, but aren't a lot of financial institutions (read : Pensions) forced to only invest in certain levels of rating and above?

If we went lower than what is defined we would lose a lot of investment

 

[danielanthony]

DAX -10.10%, CAC40 -0.95%, FTSE 250 -3.45%, FTSE 100 -1.24%.

Looks like the Germans are having a worse time with Brexit than us.

I think the markets realise that Germany will have to plug the funding black hole that the UK will leave in the EU budget.

 

[VincentHanna]

Take it back to the stone age.

 

[Gilly]

It may have been asked already, but what does "taking back Britain" mean? Or "taking back our country"?

I genuinely don't understand that expression in this context. If it has been answered I apologise, and if you can point me to the post I should be most grateful.

Everyone will have a different view of it, but the few times it's been asked and answered it's mostly been answered with something around sovereignty.

I think a lot of the Leave voters (not necessarily the ones here, but out on the streets with banners and placards and telling immigrants to 'go home') thought it meant having a white Britain and deporting all foreigners.

That's the sort of thing snakes like farage allow to happen.

 

[dowie]

It may have been asked already, but what does "taking back Britain" mean? Or "taking back our country"?

I genuinely don't understand that expression in this context. If it has been answered I apologise, and if you can point me to the post I should be most grateful.

perhaps ask the poster that posted that phrase?

sounds like a trump esq statement and not particularly meaningful

if people are referring to 'sovereignty' they're mostly talking about the UK being able to unilaterally enter trade deals and potentially regaining some control over EU immigration etc.. not being subject to EU rules in the same way nor completely reliant on the EU to negotiate on our behalf

 

[Greebo]

I understand and agree but i think they would find it easier to attempt to bridge the gap of there was even a shred of a plan. Not to mention wounds are fresh. Did you really expect a right'o old chap good game on a 52/48 split that directly impacts everyone differently.

I've spent allot of time thinking this weekend and out is the right idea in the long run but we should have been honest with or citizens and prepared them all for thr difficulties ahead. This isn't an Issue you can just dive into
But here we are....

I have come to a similar conclusion. I think with the way the Eu was heading, out might pan out best in the long run.

Whether now is the time and how it has been done is debatable.

And yes be honest with what it will mean for the next 20 years.

 

[platypus]

So what I as an ashamed leave voter has found out since the result :

I've given the racists a ticket to be disgusting.

This is the absolute worst thing to have come out of the referendum so far. People who previously had to suppress their racist and bigoted opinions have seen the vote as a green light for legitimising their views, and its now somehow acceptable to air them.

I will obviously caveat it with saying I don't believe that all leave voters are racist for a second.

 

[Caged]

Please stop listening to Boris. Boris wants whatever is best for Boris.

 

[johnloo]

Why? Do you still blindly trust the ratings agencies post-2008?

UK gilt yields are down again today.

I agree they could get anything right, they cause more problems, they were supposed to prevent problems from happening but have shown they dont. Its a system that has been put in place to control.

 

[deuse]

Everyone will have a different view of it, but the few times it's been asked and answered it's mostly been answered with something around sovereignty.

I think a lot of the Leave voters (not necessarily the ones here, but out on the streets with banners and placards and telling immigrants to 'go home') thought it meant having a white Britain and deporting all foreigners.

That's the sort of thing snakes like farage allow to happen.

You don't mention the remain lot attacking people and covering their face so the cops can't see them...

 

[dowie]

Not that I personally trust them, but aren't a lot of financial institutions (read : Pensions) forced to only invest in certain levels of rating and above?

If we went lower than what is defined we would lose a lot of investment

didn't seem to matter too much for the US back in 2011, there is still money flowing into UK govt debt at the moment - sure you're right about some on the buy side who will be forced to sell but I don't think it is going to to be a disaster

 

[Freakbro]

yup and yet the world hasn't ended and money is still flowing into UK gilts...

I have always said even with an out vote it's never going to be an armageddon and the world will still keep turning.

That doesn't mean things might not get very ugly indeed, an sadly, if we do go back into a painful recession the people who are going to suffer the most are the ones lied to to vote Leave in the first place

 

[dowie]

This is the absolute worst thing to have come out of the referendum so far. People who previously had to suppress their racist and bigoted opinions have seen the vote as a green light for legitimising their views, and its now somehow acceptable to air them.

I will obviously caveat it with saying I don't believe that all leave voters are racist for a second.

that is the worst thing? a tiny minority of idiots have said some nasty things and some skinheads have put up a banner... all of which has been jumped on by the media