Brexit thread - what happens next

[wildman]

I wasn't stating the logic and yes I know things will go up (falling £ won't help much in that regard). I just wondered why we couldn't simply pay the tariffs if that's what it takes.

Personally we might be worse off but as an exporter/country we might actually come out ahead.

and this is why the referendum was a mistake.

In general we as the public simply don't have enough information or understanding to make such a massive decision that will massively impact our economy for potentially years / decades to come.

Thatcher was right about one thing, referenda are ********

 

[Burnsy2023]

I wasn't stating the logic and yes I know things will go up (falling £ won't help much in that regard). I just wondered why we couldn't simply pay the tariffs if that's what it takes.

Personally we might be worse off but as an exporter/country we might actually come out ahead.

Because the tariffs, along with domestic policies such as our national living wage, would mean that our products would be too expensive and thus uncompetitive. Our strong workers rights mean that we're only competitive in high value products and services which tend to have a more specialised and niche market, therefore harder to export.

 

[wildman]

Have we reached £$ parity yet?

getting there, 1.28 is current rate, another few weeks of bad news and we will be there

 

[joeyjojo]

Have we reached £$ parity yet?

I think Gibbo was saying in GPUs that we're not far off new stock being priced higher numerically in £ than the $ price.

E.g. a $500 GPU costing £500+.

Doesn't have to be 1:1, because import duties etc.

 

[estebanrey]

you do realise that everything imported will go up in price?

and you do understand that people like you and me will the be the ones paying for it?

brilliant logic.

take one step forwards and two back.

The cost falls on the general public either way, either as a shopper covering manufacturer tariffs or as tax payers who have to make up the shortfall the government has by not being able to impose customs on EU goods.

 

[Glaucus]

Thatcher was right about one thing, referenda are ********

and as leave campaign like quoting Churchill, this is pretty good.

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter

most people are me me me, but anyone else when it comes to taxes or anything they don't want.

 

[PhysicsMan94]

Henderson has suspended its property fund now, that's number 4 and means that around £13bn in property funds are locked down currently.

 

[dowie]

Many commentators, including the ex Govenor of the Bank of England, think the Euro will only end badly and ultimately collapse. I've mentioned it in previous threads, but it's got fundamental structural issues that have never been addressed, only kicked down the road at each sign of trouble. Credit Suisse put a research note out earlier in the year saying the Eurozone could start to unravel if another recession hits the EU.

People don't want to accept it, but it's more likely than most people think.

it is a real risk... it isn't necessarily likely but the consequences of some of these risk are rather grim:

Broken record time: Deutsche bank potentially blowing up = major disaster... Italian banks also need support. Youth unemployment in Southern Europe + potential for their Sovereign debt to become unmanageable. There are some huge potential risks with the euro and within certain EU countries and and I think gaining some separation from the EU and increasing trade with the rest of the world would be beneficial in the long run.

 

[HEADRAT]

Because the tariffs, along with domestic policies such as our national living wage, would mean that our products would be too expensive and thus uncompetitive.

Not if the £ continues to fall in value though, surely our exports are becoming cheaper all the time

 

[LOAM]

My personal feelings are that it almost doesn't matter what we do now, the damage has been done and we've kicked the top off of our gradual recovery graph. I sort of held out some hope that a new conservative leader or even a new government wouldn't actually go through with A50 but the hole created by shooting ourselves in the foot will mean we will bleed out regardless of what happens now.

 

[PapaLazaru]

Have we reached £$ parity yet?

At least when it happens it will be easier to work out the price of a beer in Zante.

 

[Chuk_Chuk]

it is a real risk... it isn't necessarily likely but the consequences of some of these risk are rather grim:

Broken record time: Deutsche bank potentially blowing up = major disaster... Italian banks also need support. Youth unemployment in Southern Europe + potential for their Sovereign debt to become unmanageable. There are some huge potential risks with the euro and within certain EU countries and and I think gaining some separation from the EU and increasing trade with the rest of the world would be beneficial in the long run.

If we assume all this is true. I would be interested in hearing an argument for not helping/aiding other EU states?

 

[dowie]

Not if the £ continues to fall in value though, surely our exports are becoming cheaper all the time

well normal variations in GBP would tend to outweigh any EU tariffs anyway... certainly the recent devaluation makes them rather moot at the moment... though the single market is a bit more than just trade tarrifs

 

[dowie]

If we assume all this is true. I would be interested in hearing an argument for not helping/aiding other EU states?

depends what the cause of the issue is, what form that assistance takes, what measures (if any) the EU state takes to address the issue...

but regardless the risk in itself is one reason why it might be better to broaden our horizons and become less dependent on trade with the EU

 

[wildman]

Henderson has suspended its property fund now, that's number 4 and means that around £13bn in property funds are locked down currently.

project fear.............. these experts know not of what thy speak and we would do well to ignore them.

 

[wildman]

My personal feelings are that it almost doesn't matter what we do now, the damage has been done and we've kicked the top off of our gradual recovery graph. I sort of held out some hope that a new conservative leader or even a new government wouldn't actually go through with A50 but the hole created by shooting ourselves in the foot will mean we will bleed out regardless of what happens now.

brother LOAM your lack of faith is disturbing, now that we have #takebackcontrol and #sovereignty we will soon be trading everywhere, tariff free just like the good old victorian days...... why sovereignty alone will be worth a fortune on the open markets before the sun has set....................

 

[dowie]

project fear.............. these experts know not of what thy speak and we would do well to ignore them.

no it is just a fund with mostly illiquid assets - they'll have some cash set aside for redemptions under normal circumstances but beyond that they have to quickly put a stop to it and if necessary they'll have to start selling assets when it isn't necessarily a good time to do so

 

[platypus]

Henderson has suspended its property fund now, that's number 4 and means that around £13bn in property funds are locked down currently.

Who needs experts?

 

[PhysicsMan94]

And now Columbia-Threadneedle has suspended their property fund, that's number 5 now!

 

[dowie]

brother LOAM your lack of faith is disturbing, now that we have #takebackcontrol and #sovereignty we will soon be trading everywhere, tariff free just like the good old victorian days...... why sovereignty alone will be worth a fortune on the open markets before the sun has set....................

are you still looking at short term volatility as some sort of vindication that 'remain' was right? We've not even started negotiations yet let alone had time to see how this pans out