Brexit thread - what happens next

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scorza said:
I don't recall anyone saying they were against deploying UK troops on the Russian border. Most Leavers are in favour of NATO, which is a pan-national military alliance and a good example of sovereign nations co-operating and working together.
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n111ck said:
Hahaha so one random = all leavers. Just lol.
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Not one random= all leavers

But .... as above.

Anyway, it's just another example of another leaver who is ill informed on more matters to do with why they want to leave. On top of immigration, the £350 million to trade, like was it you who suggested that we can pick countries from the EU that we want to trade with and did not know that the EU is a bloc?
 
Just reading a very downbeat article about the likely effects of the weak £. Far from stimulating exports as many had hoped, it's more likely to raise inflation and cut living standards than reduce the trade deficit.

In summary, Brexit has unleashed a different sort of currency depreciation, according to modern economics, one that is less likely to encourage domestic investment for exports, is more likely to raise inflation and will be more painful for hard-pressed families. As David Miles, a former MPC member, told MPs soon after the referendum: “I am not terribly optimistic that, if sterling now stays at the current level, we should expect a marked increase in exports from the UK and a significant reduction in the current account deficit”.

Stephen King, adviser to HSBC, added that if exports were not significantly stimulated, sterling’s fall would have the effect of raising prices faster than wages, thus cutting living standards. “This is when you get into the whole risk of recession, stagnation and income squeezes of one sort or another,” he added.
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(FT)
 
Raymond Lin said:
Not one random= all leavers

But .... as above.

Anyway, it's just another example of another leaver who is ill informed on more matters to do with why they want to leave. On top of immigration, the £350 million to trade, like was it you who suggested that we can pick countries from the EU that we want to trade with and did not know that the EU is a bloc?
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So Scorza is a spokesperson for Remain but bayo (who I was referring to) is not? Just lol. :D
 
joeyjojo said:
Just reading a very downbeat article about the likely effects of the weak £. Far from stimulating exports as many had hoped, it's more likely to raise inflation and cut living standards than reduce the trade deficit.



(FT)
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It was pretty obvious that this was going to happen to be honest.

If the pound goes nearer to parity with the dollar as some forecasts predict we are all going to be very hurt. I think the US average income for example is about 50k dollars where as our is about 25k pounds.

We are all going to be paupers in comparison for anything priced in dollars(which is a LOT of stuff)...and it isn't even against the dollar that our currency is tumbling against either.

No one will be able to justify buying expensive electronics and other luxuries as they will get more expensive and as that other link points at, consumer confidence will go right down.

If the pound continues to get worse and stays deflated everyone's salary is going to have to go up big time and who is going to pay for that?
 
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joeyjojo said:
Just reading a very downbeat article about the likely effects of the weak £. Far from stimulating exports as many had hoped, it's more likely to raise inflation and cut living standards than reduce the trade deficit.
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Could we get a link to the article, please?
 
joeyjojo said:
Just reading a very downbeat article about the likely effects of the weak £. Far from stimulating exports as many had hoped, it's more likely to raise inflation and cut living standards than reduce the trade deficit.



(FT)
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This was pretty much always known to be fair. Sterling has fallen too far to be beneficial to the UK economy, I don't think that the BoE releasing all that money helped either.

That said, this economic shock could - and if managed right, should - help rebalance the UK. We've been asking for moderate inflation. We've been asking for a boost to exports. We've been asking for lower house prices.

Just needs some careful management to ensure the destruction doesn't go unchecked.
 
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bayo000 said:
No, everybody lost one way or another. But you keep thinking you're a winner.
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It is quite amusing this win/lost thing.

At the moment, all anyone has won is the money in their pocket being worth significantly less than it was a few weeks ago.

yay?
 
Mr Jack said:
A new survey shows the sharpest fall in consumer confidence since 1994. Huh. What happened in 1994 to produce that fall?
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Don't know. It marked the end of the early 1990s recession (1990-94).

K Clarke became chancellor and brought in tax hikes?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/here-is-the-news-of-1994-the-economy-1397504.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/politics97/budget97/background/bud1993_95.shtml (Warning, painfully 90s website)

Also Blair became leader of the opposition. :p
 
toshj said:
UBS and Credit Suisse base their international institutional and corporate sales teams (within capital markets) in London, as they're unable to execute such transactions in Switzerland. London dominates most areas of capital markets as a result, however should we leave the EU and not have access to passporting, then these areas of capital markets would up and leave - as well as associated practices, such as market making and structuring. This would be devastating news for the City.

Switzerland has huge asset management and private banking capabilities, but very little in the way of investment banking.
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It still doesn't stop Zurich being a much bigger financial centre than any other EU city.

You're right about capital markets, London is the centre of the world (and it's the division I work in), but the impact of losing passporting (and nobody knows that we will) is being exaggerated.

Take Deutsche bank for example. They currently run their capital markets business out of London. Why? Because London is the financial centre of the world for the reasons I gave (language, timezone, best legal system, education, infrastructure, business friendly laws/taxes etc). Passporting just gives them the ability to execute certain business from their UK subsidiary. If the UK lost the ability to passport capital markets deals to the EU (and we might not) they could just execute them from their German entities, that doesn't mean they would up their entire London infrastructure and move it to Frankfurt.

Same with the UK banks, they all have Irish/EU subsidiaries they could run their impacted products through.

Clearing is another example, where you don't even need passporting rights. Besides, the ECB has been trying to threaten London's dominance in € clearing for years, making the point we're not in the €, this is them just trying again.

Generally there is a preference for UK law to underpin derivatives contracts, particularly around insolvency (as above). ICE and LCH (by far the largest clearers of € and € derivatives) have Eurozone subsidiaries as well. The FT commented a few days ago that even if they moved clearing to their Eurozone subsidiaries, it wouldn't mean a major relocation of staff (similar to DB above).

Besides, nobody wants to move to Frankfurt anyway.

People on here (and in the media) just love a good scare story though.
 
Jono8 said:
It is quite amusing this win/lost thing.

At the moment, all anyone has won is the money in their pocket being worth significantly less than it was a few weeks ago.

yay?
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Well if you spend it in the UK most things still cost the same. Spend it abroad and yes the pound is worth less - gonna have to pay an extra £50 on something I want imported from the US
 
jimjamuk said:
Well if you spend it in the UK most things still cost the same. Spend it abroad and yes the pound is worth less - gonna have to pay an extra £50 on something I want imported from the US
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?

But most of the things we buy in shops are imported so will therefore cost more.
 
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