Brexit thread - what happens next

[Naff8000]

Someone posted this elsewhere regarding a different subject.

“Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'”

― Isaac Asimov

 

[delta0]

Maybe they're concerned about losing their seats to the Liberal Democrats, who already occupy that middle ground and have started gearing up for a GA in September, should it occur. They're currently fast-tracking the selection of my local candidate, just in case there's a snap election called.

I think this is becoming a very likely scenario. I can see this going to parliament and the vote being blocked. This will then cause a new general election. I would like to think they will call the general election sooner rather than later.

 

[scorza]

A bit of light-hearted humour:

Spoiler

 

[datalol-jack]

The takeaway I got from http://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/cb083c53-3998-4f3a-8eca-e114e3dbdf0b is that it'd be unwise to bring forward such a vote, if required, without a concrete leave proposal on the table. Forcing A50 as an executive matter would make constitutional lawyers very tetchy and hit the economy again, it seems. Also the virtual facepalms are palpable in that video.

 

[delta0]

I posted this about 50 + pages ago but I don't think anyone bothered looking at it. This is the spread of MP's who were for remain or leave up to the day of the vote.

If this has to go through a parliamentary vote it would be interesting to see if the MP's vote in line with what their constituencies voted or if they vote the way they would have themselves.

The talk about MPs wanting for form a pro-EU party suggests there are many that would not follow their constituency vote. I also think any marginal areas would not be enough to turn an MP. It would probably have to be strongly leave to cause that.

 

[wildman]

I think this is becoming a very likely scenario. I can see this going to parliament and the vote being blocked. This will then cause a new general election. I would like to think they will call the general election sooner rather than later.

I can't see May calling one though to be honest. I think there will be a lengthy debate in the house and she will set a date some time in 2017 for when the MP's will vote on it to buy her time. I can see this dragging on for at least another 6 - 12 months post leadership election.

 

[datalol-jack]

The talk about MPs wanting for form a pro-EU party suggests there are many that would not follow their constituency vote. I also think any marginal areas would not be enough to turn an MP. It would probably have to be strongly leave to cause that.

They may also chance it due to potential deselections, new boundaries and fewer seats to contest at the next election. It's also worth pointing out that for most voters Europe isn't the only issue. When push comes to shove, I'd expect a majority to coalesce around the prospect of minimising damage and moving on to domestic matters asap, considering that it increasingly looks like one would need to waste at least one parliamentary session (if not a full term) just to sort the mess out.

I can't see May calling one though to be honest. I think there will be a lengthy debate in the house and she will set a date some time in 2017 for when the MP's will vote on it to buy her time. I can see this dragging on for at least another 6 - 12 months post leadership election.

Unless she loses her majority in perpetual rebellion or in defections, she can survive behind the Fixed-term Parliaments Act reasonably well. It won't solve many gridlocks though. Simply hiding from the problem won't do.

 

[scorza]

Thanks to the terrible coalition government, calling a snap general election now is a lot harder for whoever succeeds David Cameron than it would have been for Gordon Brown. Secondly, does anyone really think a general election wouldn't result in an increased parliamentary majority for the Conservatives? Labour are in utter turmoil, UKIP have lost their charismatic leader, LibDems are (lol) the LibDems. I only ask because it only seems to be the more lefty-members of the forum who are asking for one.

 

[delta0]

I can't see May calling one though to be honest. I think there will be a lengthy debate in the house and she will set a date some time in 2017 for when the MP's will vote on it to buy her time. I can see this dragging on for at least another 6 - 12 months post leadership election.

I'm not sure she will either however if parliament block article 50 then it becomes more likely.

 

[Stretch]

Thanks to the terrible coalition government, calling a snap general election now is a lot harder for whoever succeeds David Cameron than it would have been for Gordon Brown. Secondly, does anyone really think a general election wouldn't result in an increased parliamentary majority for the Conservatives? Labour are in utter turmoil, UKIP have lost their charismatic leader, LibDems are (lol) the LibDems. I only ask because it only seems to be the more lefty-members of the forum who are asking for one.

If the Lib Dems campaign to keep the country in the EU, I can see them doing comparatively well in a snap GE. Thier biggest problem is a lack of experienced leadership, but all the parties suffer from the same issue.

The Conservative party is split, as is the Labour Party. The lib Dems are united.

I would expect the likely result to be a hung parliment, with the Lib Dems / SNP holding the balance of power, both parties both being very pro EU.

I actually thought the coalition government was one of the best we've had for a long time, and the compromise/negotiated approach works better than a single party government.

 

[datalol-jack]

Federalism is back on the menu, boys!

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...es-way-for-federal-union-says-all-party-group

The proposals say they “start from the position that each of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland is a unit that both can and should determine its own affairs to the extent that it considers it should; but that each unit should also be free to choose to share, through an efficient and effective United Kingdom, functions which are more effectively exercised on a shared basis.”

“The time for radical change has come. This country needs a new act of union,” Salisbury told the Guardian. “We are in a different world following the Brexit vote. The top-down, ad hoc approach to the structure of the United Kingdom needs to be replaced. We believe that our approach based on consent will provide a stronger union than the one that we now have and which is under challenge.”

Looks like we could be set to re-invent a mini-EU within our own borders, and then let its parts EU as they please. Interesting. Interesting. My Lib Dem sense is tingling.

 

[Kenai]

I actually thought the coalition government was one of the best we've had for a long time, and the compromise/negotiated approach works better than a single party government.

In theory, coalitions or even completely split governments ought to work for the best for the country as a whole.

Unfortunately this will never happen here because our politicians are children and our entire political system revolves around wanting to do the opposite to the guy in a different colour tie just because.

 

[dalehitchy1]

In theory, coalitions or even completely split governments ought to work for the best for the country as a whole.

Unfortunately this will never happen here because our politicians are children and our entire political system revolves around wanting to do the opposite to the guy in a different colour tie just because.

This is why I think we should abolish parties and just go with independents.

 

[Tefal]

This is why I think we should abolish parties and just go with independents.

But then larties would form anyway.

As it would be the only way to get laws theough.

 

[V F]

In theory, coalitions or even completely split governments ought to work for the best for the country as a whole.

Unfortunately this will never happen here because our politicians are children and our entire political system revolves around wanting to do the opposite to the guy in a different colour tie just because.

Just because? The only thing that drives them is votes for power.

 

[MaX_PoWah]

The more I read about brexit now the more concerned and frankly angry I get. I've been reading the economist and the FT since this happened and some of the stuff I have read is just startling. The fact that neither of these sources has a single good thing to say about it all is also very worrying.

I am also ashamed to come from the area of the country (Yorkshire) that asked for this.

It seems without a doubt our relationship with the EU needed to change and maybe Boris Johnson was right in that the EU only changes when people say no but the way we have gone about it could have years if not decades of repercussions if we carry on down this path.

Did anyone else read the economist article about the town in Cornwall called Redruth. It basically said that because Redruth's economy was really poor it's average wage was below a certain threshold at which the EU helps it. There area recieved £600 million pounds in grants from the EU to help it with which it built roads, universities, amenities etc. The area was also going to benefit from another £600 million in the next 6 years. Guess what the area did in the vote. 56% voted out. Apparently they are concerned about immigration (of which they have very little and most of the people's opinion in that area was based on "what people outside Redruth told them"). They also think everything will be fine because they can go back to catching more fish.. Crazy just crazy mentality for an area that's had so much from the EU.

This feels like it's been the referendum of the uninformed and the mislead.

The fact that the majority of the people who were behind leave have disappeared is very telling. I am just glad Cameron did what he did as its bought us all some time

 

[Jono8]

This feels like it's been the referendum of the uninformed and the mislead.

That's because it has been. The whole things is a sham.

 

[MaX_PoWah]

That's because it has been. The whole things is a sham.

People say to me what do you want then? A dictatorship? No I don't want that and I know perfect knowledge is a pipe dream but we were so very very far from that this time it's crazy.

 

[Caged]

The positive that can be taken from it is that there's finally a realisation that there exists a huge number of people who don't care about 'the economy' because they are barely part of it anyway - telling people they will have less money if they vote to Leave when they're barely treading water as it is can't be much of a disincentive.

If I were sat in Tory party HQ I'd be asking some really tough questions to the companies that run the endless focus-groups as to how nobody realised they existed. I'm not sure I'd give Ukip credit for finding these people though - they just wanted a reason why their life was pretty crap and Nigel rolled into town telling everybody that it was the immigrants and got lucky with the timing.

 

[Jono8]

The positive that can be taken from it is that there's finally a realisation that there exists a huge number of people who don't care about 'the economy' because they are barely part of it anyway - telling people they will have less money if they vote to Leave when they're barely treading water as it is can't be much of a disincentive.

If I were sat in Tory party HQ I'd be asking some really tough questions to the companies that run the endless focus-groups as to how nobody realised they existed. I'm not sure I'd give Ukip credit for finding these people though - they just wanted a reason why their life was pretty crap and Nigel rolled into town telling everybody that it was the immigrants and got lucky with the timing.

Whilst this may sound harsh, I think a lot of people need to get a grip and realise how good we have it in relation to most of the rest of the world, even if you are on low income and/or on benefits whilst not working.

Whilst a utopian dream of everyone living comfortably and working a decent living for their money is a great thought, currently it is impossible and leaving the EU will probably only make things worse, at least in the short term without there being a guarantee of the grass being greener in the future.