Brexit thread - what happens next

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Billies Bangers said:
I was listening to a piece on the radio yesterday that said if you are white, low income, with poor education attainment the likelihood is you voted for Brexit. That is exactly the same demographic in the U.S. that are backing Trump for President.

Not only that but it's a similar demographic that are agitating for drastic change across Europe. Surely that should be ringing alarm bells with politicians everywhere.

Rightly or wrongly this demographic feels left behind by society and does not have a share in the wealth of the country they were born in. They feel their whole way of life is under threat from immigration and it's a toxic mix.

I don't pretend to have an answer to this conundrum and I suspect neither do the politicians.
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I too have read something very similar. Now I note someone has already posted it's their own lazy fault. That may or may not be the case both in the U.S. U.K. and Europe. However, the reasons matter not. What does matter is that this issue is very real and is already changing the face of world politics and perhaps not in a good way.

I think there are distinct parallels with what has happened in the past especially the 1930s and you all know the old saying about those who ignore the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them.

Personally I am quite concerned about recent events, especially the possibility of a Trump presidency.
 
Mulder said:
Seems a lot of the country like what they are seeing with May and her new team.
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I can't really think why. With the recent headlines regarding May telling Merkel there's no rush, it's evident she's dreaming. Some people really do think any exit negotiations are going to go entirely our way don't they?
 
scorza said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-36846472

Chinese manufacturing company announces plans to invest an initial £220m into Sheffield, the total investment could rise to £1bn. Brexit is turning into an economic nightmare!
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This really is as stupid as posting every 0.5% fluctuation up or down in the market/currency markets to try and show it's positive/negative (depending on your side of the fence)

We need to wait a few quarters to get any menaingful data, and then we probably have to wait a few quarters after Article 50 has been invoked to get the true picture of what effect it will have.

And even then, no-one ever said there would be no trade, growth or investement ever after brexit just that we would be in a worse position than if we stayed in.
 
do_ron_ron said:
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That's not a quote from Theresa May saying we're going for access to the single market regardless of the costs. You seem insistent that we have to get single market access and that we'll have to give up freedom of movement, I think we can just get a trade deal like other countries
 
Freakbro said:
This really is as stupid as posting every 0.5% fluctuation up or down in the market/currency markets to try and show it's positive/negative (depending on your side of the fence)

We need to wait a few quarters to get any menaingful data, and then we probably have to wait a few quarters after Article 50 has been invoked to get the true picture of what effect it will have.

And even then, no-one ever said there would be no trade, growth or investement ever after brexit just that we would be in a worse position than if we stayed in.
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I know. I'm just redressing the balance.
 
Boycey0211 said:
Positivity and actually wanting something done apart from sitting on our backsides wondering are completely different.

I get where you're coming from, but its more like lets just get on with it rather than its great.

Even as a remainer I'd rather something actually be done rather than whats going on now.

but then theres this which sort of undermines all that :(

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36841066
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Why do you want to rush into it?
 
Luxembourg finance chief: 'London could be boosted by Brexit'

London’s financial services industry could be boosted by the UK’s planned exit from the European Union, according to the Finance Minister of Luxembourg.

Zethor said:
Balance, yes.
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For purely selfish reasons, I'm hoping the London property market cools down a bit so decently sized freeholds aren't always outrageously expensive.
 
platypus said:
Selfish indeed. You really want a large percentage wiped off pensions and stocks?
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Some jump you've made there....

Less than 10% of UK pension funds are invested in property, so even a massive drop, say 20%, in London prices would only mean a 2% impact, a drop in the ocean against the bigger deficits they face. In equities, other than the speccy house builders (which any decent pension fund manager wouldn't go near) blue-chip stocks are unlikely to take a direct hit from declining residential property prices.

Besides, London property has been overheating for a while, you can't just keep kicking the can down the road. Add to the mix the BTL tax changes starting to kick in soon, and the potential for them to tighten up BTL loan requirements and I'm hopeful we'll start to see prices coming in.

Do I want London property prices to go down? Absolutely, loads of people do. Doesn't make me a bad person.
 
silversurfer said:
Before you leap, look where you will land. Its probably sensible to end up with a lot of contracts ready to sign the second we do leave, we can arrange that without officially doing anything just on good faith UK can talk out feasible outcomes with trading partners
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I think it will take a lot longer to sign treaties unless we go in saying OK we will agree with anything you want. We are talking years.
 
Mulder said:
One of the comments in that article read my mind! Copied below.

Blanchflower lost all credibility with his doom and gloom forecast of 5 million unemployed which not only never happened but the exact opposite took place. He later tried to prove it had in fact happened and was proved totally wrong about that. On the evidence of his past predictions we can expect boom times.
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As nothing apart from a desire to leave has happened yet it is far, far too early to judge. May wants to delay a decision till next year. Is this the start of kicking it into the long grass.
 
Zethor said:
I prefer to avoid putting the lazy label on large groups of people. The poor and the low skilled are angry, yes but the underlying causes are linked to govt. policies. The financial crisis was difficult for everyone but the rich and the highly skilled had more tools to protect themselves from the fallout where as the poor and the low skilled had to absord the shocks directly.

The US politicians responded with a stimulus plan while the Europeans chose austerity. The stimulus plan was a bit more effective at generating growth but both policies failed in the sense that all of the post crisis growth was felt mainly by the rich and, to a lesser extent, the highly skilled. So now we have lots of frustrated people that are indeed left behind.

Angry, desperate people often turn to easy, quick fix solutions: the Mexicans or the Muslims or the EU did it. The tabloids are selling well, the populists gain political capital but everyone loses.

Unless the policies start shifting towards better redistribution of wealth, the anger and frustration will only increase and the populists will become nastier. So that's the only solution at the moment, giving these groups of people a larger piece of the pie.
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Very true.
 
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