Brexit thread - what happens next

[do_ron_ron]

Schools, NHS and all other Public Services miss so many targets nowadays
Of course all the above relies on the Government breaking a many year trend of actually being competent in what they do, which remains to be seen.

For the UK Govts it is well known that the Baby Boomers age will require more hospitals, doctors etc. They have only had 60+ years notice. Schools ditto. There are records of births so in 5 years you will need X schools and 7 years later the problem goes down the line(except in areas where you have these middle school things) Public Services are also predictable to a good extent. Census as well as the other data should give a ball park figure. There will always be some variation but a lot is predictable.

The second point is the killer. Govts being competent. That is were the problem lies. Short term Govts wanting to bribe the electorate to keep their Party in the trough is the problem.

 

[Amp34]

Out of interest what numbers would people actually be happy with?

The conservatives keep banging on about tens of thousands, but is that really even possible?

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ation-statistics-january-to-march-2015#work-1

Looking at the above link it looks like the family category accounts for at least 40-50k a year on its own, and as mentioned that currently under a pretty draconian system regarding financial requirements. So reducing immigration to tens of thousands would give us no real room to bring in skilled workers, requirements for which would almost certainly go UP (to account for the lack of EU workers taking these jobs).

So basically the conservative immigration policy is doomed to failure from the start.

 

[delta0]

As I said then. No wonder they got rid of it!

How they could possibly go through all the proper paperwork that quickly I don't know.

Edit: says on there to do the fast track you have to have the application already in the system?

http://www.workpermit.com/uk/tier-1-visa.htm

It also looks like it's not/was not your standard option for skilled visa. Basically it's designed for millionaire investors, international artists and premier league footballers, rather than your average engineer, doctor or care worker.

Edit2: And with the tier 2 visa a person needs a job offer (the company not being able to find a local to fill the position), and apparently there are only 20,700 a year being given out. So there doesn't appear to be any visas for those with skills to move to the UK without a job (which as an example is what the Canadian FSW fast track system linked to earlier is about.

I actually know a couple of people on Tier 2 visas. The only problem is at least one of them wants to leave his company and work for another, but can't because he would be thrown out of the U.K. Those kind of visas can cause problems in themselves.

You need to fill in the online form and then go to the office with all the paperwork and evidence they need. They make the decision that day. The wait is for the appointment. We got our tier 2 guy in less than a month so it is fast (I'm not sure if he was priority or premium service). My other half got her ILR same day but had to book 2-3 weeks in advance for the appointment.

 

[Mr Jack]

So basically the conservative immigration policy is doomed to failure from the start.

Really the only way to do it is to encourage more people to leave.

 

[joeyjojo]

Do I think they are going to suddenly stop all immigrants coming in, of course not, i'm not an idiot. But, as I worked at the Jobcentre since I was 20 what I would like to see (and what Cameron attempted to do and failed) is to stop any entitlement to benefits for new immigrants. I would like that immigrants without skills are not able to freely enter the country and immediately claim benefits without ever having to have contributed.

We have this already for EU jobseekers.

 

[Amp34]

You need to fill in the online form and then go to the office with all the paperwork and evidence they need. They make the decision that day. The wait is for the appointment. We got our tier 2 guy in less than a month so it is fast (I'm not sure if he was priority or premium service). My other half got her ILR same day but had to book 2-3 weeks in advance for the appointment.

So yeah, it's not really same day then is it (in that you can apply and then get the visa in a day or two).

I know when the Canadian immigration service looked at my file it only took them a couple of days to decide. But it had been sat with all the other applications in their office for months prior to that. I wouldn't say my application took a couple of days though, it took 8 months (non work related visa).

Edit: yes, I am nitpicking. It's nice to see it go that quickly, that said they a re pretty restrictive visas as they basically chain you to a specific job, which isn't great for the employee.

Really the only way to do it is to encourage more people to leave.

More people should. Space makes such a difference and most other countries have it. It's also sunnier, which makes a massive difference.

You're right though, unfortunately it's likely to get much harder to do that. I'm going to guess numbers leaving the UK will drop significantly after we leave the EU, unless we have freedom of movement, so it may actually make net immigration look worse.

 

[datalol-jack]

Out of interest what numbers would people actually be happy with?

The conservatives keep banging on about tens of thousands, but is that really even possible?

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ation-statistics-january-to-march-2015#work-1

Looking at the above link it looks like the family category accounts for at least 40-50k a year on its own, and as mentioned that currently under a pretty draconian system regarding financial requirements. So reducing immigration to tens of thousands would give us no real room to bring in skilled workers, requirements for which would almost certainly go UP (to account for the lack of EU workers taking these jobs).

So basically the conservative immigration policy is doomed to failure from the start.

Well, imagine this situation: you want to drop net to tens of thousands; each major category -- workers, families and students -- is already pushing up at the limits; whom do you drop? Is that fair? Will it make the nation 'open to business and facing outwards' in the eyes of our nearest and most crucial allies and trade partners?

If less people leave in any given year than expected, would you damage the economy, disrupt families or arbitrarily increase income requirements to catch up? Would you simply nudge the quota up and up until it basically settles at the same level market demands, if so then what was the point of the extra administrative hassles, controls and expense when other things need the cash? And, just to add insult to injury, a swathe of economic projections from pension contributions to growth you have to rely on assumes 1 million arrivals as the baseline, or thereabouts.

Yeah. Rhetoric time!

 

[bayo000]

Really the only way to do it is to encourage more people to leave.

Plenty of people voted to leave, we could start there.

 

[Richeh]

We have this already for EU jobseekers.

I just read up on that (not been at the JCP for the last 2 years) and they only have to be here for 3 months before becoming able to claim. There are tests in place to make sure they can actually work/find work but I suspect most 'work' for a relative and if they are found unfit they lose their habitual residence which I know for a fact results in nothing, we simply told them over the phone 'Sorry your not habitually resident - reclaim when you are'. We don't actually send them back.

Understand you were just pointing out it has changed but still barely a quarter measure.

 

[joeyjojo]

Understand you were just pointing out it has changed but still barely a quarter measure.

Still, a small improvement. It would be so good to have some estimates of the number of EU migrants circumventing these rules but it's obviously difficult. I appreciate you interacted with a lot of them for your job but I would guess it's a small proportion.

 

[platypus]

I was a Leave vote and was always going to be before the campaigns even started. My main reason for voting, immigration, as it had been explicitly stated that we could not remain in the EU without free movement ie things stay exactly as they are then the only obvious choice for ANYTHING further being done to control it was to vote out.

So how do you feel now that post referendum, it's been made clear that tackling immigration was never going to be either realistic, or was actually the goal of any of the leave campaign?

How do you feel after falling for the lies?

 

[Hagar]

So how do you feel now that post referendum, it's been made clear that tackling immigration was never going to be either realistic, or was actually the goal of any of the leave campaign?

How do you feel after falling for the lies?

I still feel good about it , let's see how it works out longer term.

It is a ridiculous state where the UK population increases by a million every two years through births and immigration.

It not only puts a strain on housing and services, but to properly provide all those homes, hospitals, roads, railways, factories, airports etc. it takes up a ****load of the country.

 

[platypus]

I still feel good about it , let's see how it works out longer term.

It is a ridiculous state where the UK population increases by a million every two years through births and immigration.

It not only puts a strain on housing and services, but to properly provide all those homes, hospitals, roads, railways, factories, airports etc. it takes up a ****load of the country.

So you feel good despite voting for something that won't happen and you were lied to about ?

If your concern is the yearly increase in population why are you not campaigning for mass sterilisation? Given that births massively outweigh immigration?

 

[Hagar]

So you feel good despite voting for something that won't happen ?

Why are you not campaigning for sterilisation? Given that births massively outweigh immigration?

Yes longer term, It will be a better country.

Births in the UK do not massively outweigh immigration, but I am not responding to stupid questions.

 

[Richeh]

So how do you feel now that post referendum, it's been made clear that tackling immigration was never going to be either realistic, or was actually the goal of any of the leave campaign?

How do you feel after falling for the lies?

I think you misunderstood. I was always going to vote leave but that was purely from personal experience over the last 10 years. I didn't fall for any lies.

Again as in my originaly post, I stated I never expeceted immigration to stop and as far as I can tell, unless you have evidence otherwise the new government is currently coming up with a strategy on leaving the EU and meeting the supposed 'wants' of the people around that. At least another 6 months is likely before we know what plans their are (if any) to curb immigration in any meaningful way.

I was always going to vote to leave, it doesn't mean I have any faith in our government to be able to deliver on any promises of any kind. There is no punishment for blatantly lying or making false promises with no real plan to back them up in the campaigns for elections as we have seen for a long time. But my choice to leave the EU was as I knew nothing could change in relation to immigration, and in my personal experience again, in my work (which dealt with all over the country) and my personal town has to me had a detrimental effect. So I as a lowly individual did the only thing I could have any value to attempt to change that

 

[platypus]

I think you misunderstood. I was always going to vote leave but that was purely from personal experience over the last 10 years. I didn't fall for any lies.

You said that your reason for voting to leave was immigration. The lies told by the leave campaign were that we would do something about immigration, exposed within minutes of the vote by the leading proponents of the leave campaign because no one has any intention of doing anything about it.

Again as in my originaly post, I stated I never expeceted immigration to stop and as far as I can tell, unless you have evidence otherwise the new government is currently coming up with a strategy on leaving the EU and meeting the supposed 'wants' of the people around that.

So you never expected immigration to stop, but voted because of immigration. Not really much of a solid platform on which to base a vote, is it?

An aside really, but how do you expect the government is going to come up with a strategy to meet the "wants" of the people?

But my choice to leave the EU was as I knew nothing could change in relation to immigration

Wait - I thought you voted because of immigration? You've contradicted yourself here somewhat. If you know nothing will change, what an earth did you vote for...

my personal town has to me had a detrimental effect. p

...Was it to make sure your town loses its funding through its Assisted Area status that it received from the EU? Or the funding it receives from the EU Fisheries fund? As that is what will surely happen.

 

[estebanrey]

If your concern is the yearly increase in population why are you not campaigning for mass sterilisation? Given that births massively outweigh immigration?

Massively outweigh? I would hardly say 700k live births in 2015 "massively outweighed" the 600k immigrants that came that year.

Besides you need to look at net, births need to be offset by deaths and immigration offset by emigration, in that case...

2015 Net birth/death = 170,000
2015 Net migration = 330,000

 

[platypus]

Use net migration figures, then we can talk.

 

[[TW]Fox]

Use net migration figures, then we can talk.

I'm hardly pro-Brexit but you can't compare net migration with births, you have to use births/deaths.

 

[estebanrey]

Use net migration figures, then we can talk.

I did, see above. But you can't compare net migration with live births andd ignore deaths. Compare gross with gross or net with net.