Brexit thread - what happens next

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Yes, I totally agree. There should have been a referendum around the time of Maastricht or Lisbon. It would have set a clear mandate and back then I think Remain would likely have won.

In the 90s and early 2000s Euroscepticism hadn't reached the peak it now has and there was a different economic and social climate, more hopeful, less inward looking. Brexit seems born of a more desperate pressure for change, any change. There's hope too of course, but a more blind hope, a sense of 'anything must be better than this'. Be careful what you wish for IMO.

The problem I have with the "you lost, deal with it, move on" agenda is that I don't fundamentally think that Brexit will bring the change people desire, so I'm finding it hard to deal with it on that basis. Not because I believe in a federal Europe (I don't) but because I don't think the EU is fundamentally the cause of the biggest problems this country faces.

Unless the rampant inequality and disenfranchisement that runs deep through this country is tackled then things can only get more ugly for the UK, whether in or out of the EU. And yes I know what Theresa May said in her inaugural speech about making Britain fairer, I just don't buy it and will take a lot of convincing. Initial signs aren't great, with plans afoot for a variable regional minimum wage, possible minimum wage waivers for some businesses and the government stalling the EU Development Fund payments and not giving any reassurances about replacing the EU funds going to poorer areas and much needed research.
Where we perhaps part company is when you say the EU isn't the cause of our biggest problems. Indeed, it probably isn't, but that doesn't imply we should just stay in because the biggest problems lie elsewhere.

We have a numbrr of problems, from debt levels to over-reliance on consumer spending, to productivity issues, to an unbalanced economy, and more.

The issue with the EU is that it's not any single issue, but a collection of them, and only part of the set is even about the economy.
 
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Could you please be more specific about why this is a negative?

What sectors do you believe the UK can compete with the USA, China, and India in? How much trade do those sectors do with the EU compared to those countries?

It's a nice notion, but I have much less confidence in it than you. Seems more likely to me that you've got it backwards - protectionism is precisely what a small developed country like ours needs to avoid further loss of industry to developing nations and to preserve our cultural heritage.
If that's what you think, then no doubt it explains voting Remain. It's where we differ, it seems. I see staying in that protectionist zone as latching ourselves to the stagnating old world, and leaving as facing up the the big, bright future. It'll have challenges, and nobody said it'll be easy, but the opportunities are out there.

There will be further loss of some industries whatever we do. But success is driven by geing ahead of the curve in growth industries, and being there to sell to and service the growing nouveaux affluent in the world outside the EU.

Put it this way. Some industries we simply cannot protect. Simple economics determines that you put industries where you can get plentiful and cheap supplies of essential resources. The mills of the North were located where they were because of resoyrces, primarily running water to drive machinery. But steam changed that and the industrial revolution killed off reliance on water wheels. The same thing has happened in the kast 50 years to labour-intensive activities like hat making in Luton. From, what, hundreds of companies and thousands employed post-war, we're now down to half a dozen or less, and fhose are really just design and sales operations with bulk manufacturing done in the far east. We simply cannot compete with their incredibly low unit labour costs.

Where we go from here has many aspects. We can still compete where we do so on quality, or better yet, the carefully marketed mystique of high-end branding that appeals to the newly affluent consumer segments in, for example, China, by selling aspirational items.

But trying to protect industries where the fundamentals have changed is analogous to the little Dutch boy sticking his fjnger in the hole in the dike. It's ultimately futile, and you risk drowning.
 
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If that's what you think, then no doubt it explains voting Remain. It's where we differ, it seems. I see staying in that protectionist zone as latching ourselves to the stagnating old world, and leaving as facing up the the big, bright future. It'll have challenges, and nobody said it'll be easy, but the opportunities are out there.

There will be further loss of some industries whatever we do. But success is driven by geing ahead of the curve in growth industries, and being there to sell to and service the growing nouveaux affluent in the world outside the EU.

Put it this way. Some industries we simply cannot protect. Simple economics determines that you put industries where you can get plentiful and cheap supplies of essential resources. The mills of the North were located where they were because of resoyrces, primarily running water to drive machinery. But steam changed that and the industrial revolution killed off reliance on water wheels. The same thing has happened in the kast 50 years to labour-intensive activities like hat making in Luton. From, what, hundreds of companies and thousands employed post-war, we're now down to half a dozen or less, and fhose are really just design and sales operations with bulk manufacturing done in the far east. We simply cannot compete with their incredibly low unit labour costs.

Where we go from here has many aspects. We can still compete where we do so on quality, or better yet, the carefully marketed mystique of high-end branding that appeals to the newly affluent consumer segments in, for example, China, by selling aspirational items.

But trying to protect industries where the fundamentals have changed is analogous to the little Dutch boy sticking his fjnger in the hole in the dike. It's ultimately futile, and you risk drowning.

Now; I would like to ask a question, you can answer pretty simply, yes, no, sort of, however but short and sweet if possible.

I voted to remain, for philosophical reasons as much as political/social/economic - right. You voted to leave; as you quite eloquently described that you see no future in the 'old world' and you see the European Union as being synonymous with that.

So my question is; in all seriousness. Do you trust the most right win Government since World War II to lead us in to the unknown? Would you prefer a shift to the left? Shift more central?

I do not trust this Government in the slightest, and would not want them negotiating the future for this country.
 
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Now; I would like to ask a question, you can answer pretty simply, yes, no, sort of, however but short and sweet if possible.

I voted to remain, for philosophical reasons as much as political/social/economic - right. You voted to leave; as you quite eloquently described that you see no future in the 'old world' and you see the European Union as being synonymous with that.

So my question is; in all seriousness. Do you trust the most right win Government since World War II to lead us in to the unknown? Would you prefer a shift to the left? Shift more central?

I do not trust this Government in the slightest, and would not want them negotiating the future for this country.

Yeh I trust it more than I would a Labour government.
 
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I find it interesting that the next general election might be won by the party that has the best business analysts, chancellor etc rather than Prime Minster all off the back of Brexit. Could explain some of the drastic reshuffles we are seeing.
 
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_net_migration_rate
http://static.independent.co.uk/s3f...image/2016/07/27/09/statista-wage-growth.jpeg

Considering that from that picture Spain, Canada, USA, Sweden and Switzerland all have higher immigration figures than UK and still have positive real wage growth, I'd go as far and say that correlation is very weak and causality cannot be proven.

This is where you have to be a bit more sophisticated, migrants to Spain for example I imagine would largely be retirees so of course they're not going to affect wages.

I'm thinking that wages in Poland grow mostly because that is the only way for them to retain workers. Engineering agency in Poland either rises salaries every year by a lot or has a turnover rate of 50% as every person with 1 year of experience buggers off to Germany or UK.

That backs up my argument. Supply of labour is tight in Poland because like you say, workers there have the option of going to the UK, therefore employers in Poland have to increase wages to persuade them to stay. Laws of supply and demand triumph once again.
 
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:rolleyes:
Where is the evidence that it is discredited

MP Calls For LSE Probe Over Referendum Role

In a letter seen by Sky News, a prominent Tory MP has urged regulators to investigate the LSE ahead of June's EU referendum.

http://news.sky.com/story/mp-calls-for-lse-probe-over-referendum-role-10262413

Loads more damning evidence about the corruption and bias associated with this Trotskyst den :


https://www.theguardian.com/education/2011/mar/03/lse-director-resigns-gaddafi-scandal

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/educatio...mic-Society-holds-segregated-gala-dinner.html

https://wallofcontroversy.wordpress.com/tag/london-school-of-economics/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ibya/8362577/The-real-scandal-at-the-LSE.html
 
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The LSE have proved they will do pretty much anything for cash. Accepting millions from Libya/Gaddafi, being paid to write a glowing report (which the report, of course, didn't disclose) for the Kid's Company which then collapsed.
 
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There will be further loss of some industries whatever we do. But success is driven by geing ahead of the curve in growth industries, and being there to sell to and service the growing nouveaux affluent in the world outside the EU.

Where we go from here has many aspects. We can still compete where we do so on quality, or better yet, the carefully marketed mystique of high-end branding that appeals to the newly affluent consumer segments in, for example, China, by selling aspirational items.

Thanks for the reply. I cut the flowery language out and this is what's left. :)

This begs the question though, could we not do this in the EU? What trade was being stifled by being in the EU? Last I heard the UK was selling China plenty of cars, designer clothing, and services (architecture, financial, law).* How much can this go up by leaving the EU?

China is a great example actually, because we (the EU) are its biggest trading partner, and it is our second largest (after the USA). The EU page on trade with China says

The EU is committed to open trading relations with China. However, the EU wants to ensure that China trades fairly, respects intellectual property rights and meets its WTO obligations.

At the 16th EU-China Summit held on 21 November 2013 both sides announced the launch of negotiations of a comprehensive EU-China Investment Agreement.

The Agreement will provide for progressive liberalisation of investment and the elimination of restrictions for investors to each other's market. It will provide a simpler and more secure legal framework to investors of both sides by securing predictable long-term access to EU and Chinese markets respectively and providing for strong protection to investors and their investments.

To me that seems like exactly the way to proceed, get two huge trading partners together and find a common ground that works well for both parties. At the same time we can lean on China to improve some of its standards. (That bit on IP is particularly relevant - what's the point in us trading "aspirational" items if they're then counterfeited wholesale and there's no framework for legal action?)

I don't see how breaking away does the UK any good on this issue. Instead of being a member in one agreement between equals, the UK has to do all the work again if it wants to trade on a similar footing to the EU, but you can bet it won't be as good a deal as an EU-China deal.

* P.S. in fact it seems (as of June 2014) that the UK was selling a lot less to China than Germany, France, and Italy as a % of total exports. Seems like a symptom of something deeper than simply EU membership. https://next.ft.com/content/fe5d673e-f631-11e3-a038-00144feabdc0
 
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Soldato
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Snip for space

The main argument I see recurring for doing that is: custom and quick (including unilateral measures to make us attractive like shedding worker protections, dropping baseline salaries and taxes, etc.) is better than robust and comprehensive. Naturally experts weighed in on the latter and disputed the former, but we'll now get to test this core assumption in practice regardless.
 
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Lloyds bank shedding 3000 jobs and closing another 200 branches and blames it on Brexit.

Given the vote was only a month ago or so, this would have been in the pipeline for longer than that - just nice for them to able to blame Brexit to misdirect the anger at chopping job when they were going to do it anyway. To really blame Brexit they would have needed some cold hard figures in the months after the vote to say a trend was occurring and they needed to react so its too soon for that
 
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If we get the expected recession then I can imagine Lloyd's and other high street banks will be making less money, but those losses will come from the investment arm not high street branches.

Axing branches smacks of opportunism.

I suppose they could claim to still have some branch overlap after the merger with HBOS, but given that Lloyds, Halifax and Bank of Scotland all have their own branch chains that doesn't really hold water.
 
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Given the vote was only a month ago or so, this would have been in the pipeline for longer than that - just nice for them to able to blame Brexit to misdirect the anger at chopping job when they were going to do it anyway. To really blame Brexit they would have needed some cold hard figures in the months after the vote to say a trend was occurring and they needed to react so its too soon for that

To be fair they havent blamed it directly on Brexit. They have blamed the job losses and closures on the fact that they believe that shortly interest rates will be halved and in the long term might go to zero or even negative.

Now it could be argued that we wouldn't be in that situation if we hadn't voted leave but others like Farrage claim we were going into a recession anyway.

So we will never know. Interestingly enough Natwest have informed all their business customers that their terms have changed and, if necessary, they are going to charge you interest to have a credit balance.
 
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