Brexit thread - what happens next

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n111ck said:
So the 'increase' in hate crimes is likely a myth perpetuated by those with an agenda?
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I think that's the most likely explanation. The definition and the method of counting incidents has been changed in ways that are very effective at hugely inflating the figures. It's possible that it's unintentional, but I think it's more likely that it's deliberate.

On top of that, there's the ongoing increase in group identity politics. That will inevitably increase the number of cases in which people interpret (or pretend to do so as an excuse for bullying or propaganda) things as being about group identity when they aren't and as being hostile when they aren't. The classic example is a man holding a door open for people behind him and a sufficiently devout feminist interpreting that as a hostile act against women.

Then there's outright false accusations of "hate crimes", of course. Easy to do, politically useful and with no significant risk. All that's required is to go to a website and make something up. Instant increase in "hate crime" figures. Even if there is any investigation, there's hardly any risk because the whole point of "hate crime" rules is that they're wholly subjective and thus usually impossible to disprove. If person A accuses person B of a "hate crime", how can person B prove person A wasn't really offended? Unless the accuser makes factually false statements that can be disproven (e.g. when a journalist was accused of interrupting a person's phone call on a train to ask if they were phoning their boyfriend he was able to use surveillance video in the train to prove he never went near the person) they're completely safe to make a false accusation.

These things might be less effective if large numbers were involved, but they're not. For example, a reported 57% increase in "hate crimes" was reported in an area of London. A huge increase...in percentage terms. That 57% increase was an extra 31 reports. To a website. Without any checking. Or evidence.

We really have no idea if there has been an increase, a decrease or no change because nobody is monitoring how many actual hate crimes there are. It's far more politically useful to include all sorts of things that aren't hate crimes, use various techniques to inflate the figures and then pretend all of the resulting number represent serious assaults motivated solely by irrational prejudices.
 
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Tefal said:
why?

i cant see the French being all that arsed about having free movement with the uk tbh.

they seem pretty anti immigration at the moment, they may want a similar deal.
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A sizable number of French people, perhaps. French politicians with real power, probably not. They're not directly affected by the problems caused by mass immigration without integration, so they only need care about making enough noises to appease voters. They're not likely to go for something that will quite fundamentally undermine the EU.

But who knows? Everyone I talked with before the referendum though it was unlikely that the UK would leave the EU and that included the people I talked to who said they were going to vote to leave.
 
Angilion said:
. They're not directly affected by the problems caused by mass immigration without integration, so they only need care about making enough noises to appease voters.
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well except for the fact that they are majorly affected because voters are turning away from then to the right wing political groups.

Unless you dont count losing office as being affected
 
scorza said:
Remember how the so-called experts said that Turkey are millions of years from joining the EU? Well someone better tell Turkey that because their ambassador to the EU wants his country to join in seven years.

https://euobserver.com/tickers/134679
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They wont join

(I work with Turks, we have some in the UK as we also have a site in Turkey. When you talk to actual turks, educated ones, they will tell you the country is going backwards, getting further and further away from the EU not closer.)
 
scorza said:
Remember how the so-called experts said that Turkey are millions of years from joining the EU? Well someone better tell Turkey that because their ambassador to the EU wants his country to join in seven years.

https://euobserver.com/tickers/134679
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So what, the Ambassador can want all he likes, unless they get their house into order they aren't joining.

And the way Erdogan has been acting, they have set themselves further back from joining rather than enhanced their application.
 
ov_sjo said:
Nothing to do with the religious shift they've had eh....
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They haven't had a religious shift they have always been split, just like a lot of middle eastern countries. For sure there are issues with religion, its the east, thats kind of a given, but its not that simple.

Erdogan has been trying to appese the voters, and the majority come from lesser educated backgrounds and hence tend to react with the decisions people from that background will make. At times though hes practically a dictator. Hes getting more and more desperate to cling on to power.

Turkey is seriously divided, I was never really aware until I talked to locals how much so. What we see on the news here is not the full story, but then we say that about most world events, its what our limited news outlets want us to see in short snippets.
 
scorza said:
Remember how the so-called experts said that Turkey are millions of years from joining the EU? Well someone better tell Turkey that because their ambassador to the EU wants his country to join in seven years.

https://euobserver.com/tickers/134679
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Boris wanted to be PM about now, how did that work for him? As well as a lot of people wanted Article 50 to be invoked by now. I guess what people want and reality don't always work out as they wish.

:)
 
Tunney said:
What is President Erdogan's view on the matter? Isn't he making kissy-faces at Russia at the moment?
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Hes having lessons in democracy and constitution rule changing, Putin sytle

Whilst i am clearly pro remain I do find this annoying. Its not relevant (yet) to mention Brexit and government cashflow. Sure in 12 months there could be some relevance but like many other factors we wont see any Brexit impact yet!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37129709

Key point "The UK government had a smaller budget surplus than expected in July, the first calendar month since the Brexit vote."
 
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