Brexit thread - what happens next

[dalehitchy1]

There's little point, the great EU project is crumbling, maybe the politicians in the UK don't want to waste the time and resources negotiating with a regime that seems so certain to fall?

Europe is hurtling towards a 'cataclysmic event' that will destroy the euro and kill off the European Union, a Nobel prize-winning economist has predicted.

The American Joseph Stiglitz said another 'disastrous' political event such as Brexit would trigger the collapse.

He said there was a real danger that problems caused by the single currency would cause the hostility necessary to bring down the European project and its 'liberal values'.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-prize-winning-economist-Joseph-Stiglitz.html

And the most second famous line... The EU is crumbling. Guess you read the daily mail / sun. They have been crumbling and about the collapse for the past 20 years but they are still here with no other country planning to leave.

Edit: Why someone seems so happy about the EU possibily crumbling anyway I dont know. If you think it crumbling will improve your life and others over the next 50 years it won't. There would be serious consequences. But I wouldn't expect you to think of them as you read the daily mail and can't think past the headline they write.

 

[Greebo]

They couldn't invoke A50 this summer even if they wanted to, only a fraction of the negotiating team are in place and/or trained up.

As for 2017, it's unlikely A50 will get activated until after elections in France & Germany, as we won't really know what political mood we're dealing with in those two major movers and shakers and don't want Brexit being a political football in their election campaigns.

Beyond that ... who knows. The Independent seems to think it might never happen:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...ropean-elections-france-germany-a7198736.html

Wishful thinking by Remainers? Not really, it's just the cold light of day shining on things. Brexiters best go find Nige to create some more hot air to hurry A50 along, I think he was last seen at the German embassy

Nige has already said if they dont invoke A50 this year he's coming back to lead UKIP (along with having dual German Citizenship as a back up )

 

[Metallifux]

Ah yes... Another "TRIGGER ARTICLE 50 NOW!!' moaner who has no idea of what's involved. I guess you voted without any research involved. If you did you would realise the work involved... Which can take many years. Farage and co had 11 years to plan but instead did a runner. So we have to start from scratch.

Ah another Farage did a runner moaner, not realising of course that he had nothing to run from as he couldn't invoke article 50 no matter how much he wants to.

 

[Chris Wilson]

And the most second famous line... The EU is crumbling. Guess you read the daily mail / sun. They have been crumbling and about the collapse for the past 20 years but they are still here with no other country planning to leave.

Edit: Why someone seems so happy about the EU possibily crumbling anyway I dont know. If you think it crumbling will improve your life and others over the next 50 years it won't. There would be serious consequences. But I wouldn't expect you to think of them as you read the daily mail and can't think past the headline they write.

Now now, insults, insults. Just to show balance, (and I have mentioned several times in these forums that I also read the Guardian, and you will not find a post of mine decrying what national dailies others read or cite from), here is what the Guardian are saying about the likelihood of other countries wanting to vote on leaving the EU:


"After the UK backed withdrawing from the EU, politicians elsewhere are calling for referendums in their own countries"

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...xit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu

 

[dalehitchy1]

Now now, insults, insults. Just to show balance, (and I have mentioned several times in these forums that I also read the Guardian, and you will not find a post of mine decrying what national dailies others read or cite from), here is what the Guardian are saying about the likelihood of other countries wanting to vote on leaving the EU:


"After the UK backed withdrawing from the EU, politicians elsewhere are calling for referendums in their own countries"

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...xit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu

So now we trust experts? Go over to these countries speak to people and see the political mood. The majority of the people in these countries are pro EU... And they haven't had the media or the government for the past decade blaming literally ANYTHING negative happpening on the EU. No one else is leaving.

To the other person about farage. If I had been moaning about the EU and running the parliment and asking for a referendum I would have had a plan. Hi f course I agree he's not in parliment so can't do much. But I do not see him offering help... Saying here is our plan. Why.... Because there was none. Why brexiters defence this I do not know. In any other situation in life for things like this... Job interviews... Project planning... You'd expect to have just that

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Thing is, by not accepting the result of the referendum, the remaining remainers, like Owen Smith, are just making it more likely that we'll have to trigger Article 50 before we're fully prepared. These people need to put their disappointment behind them for the good of our nation.

Thing is, hes accepting the result of the referendum (the non binding one dont forget), thats not in doubt unless comprehension is a skill you dont have.

Whats he saying is, we do the work then validate that the negotiation gives what the public want.

Without knowing his plans it could be a 3 way vote, maybe ranked choices type scenario.
1) Reject negotiated position, leave completely and try to renegotiate again
2) Accept propsals as presented
3) Reject proposals and do not trigger A50

Thats not undemocratic, nor not representing the will of the people, its yet again adding democracy in that its clarifying exactly what people want.

If the negotiation is good its completely possible that some remain voters would vote for 2. I certainly would, just because I think we are better off inside the EU than out doesn't mean I have taken by brain out and would vote to support the Eu position no matter what (in fact I dont know a single remain voter who thinks the Eu is perfect, I do see a lot of outers however who think anything ever touched by the Eu is fail).

So don't presume hes ignoring the will as he is clearly not, hes proposing the most logical thing (and something many said should always have been on the plan) which is a validation.

The only reason I can see why someone would think this was a bad plan was if they thought the lies and deceit had affected the result previously and a different result would be had now.
Its exactly the same as the Scot indy vote.

 

[Tefal]

Whats he saying is, we do the work then validate that the negotiation gives what the public want.

Without knowing his plans it could be a 3 way vote, maybe ranked choices type scenario.
1) Reject negotiated position, leave completely and try to renegotiate again
2) Accept propsals as presented
3) Reject proposals and do not trigger A50

Thats not undemocratic

not undemocratic...but it is impossible.

we can't negotiate until after article 50 is triggered.

Europe is refusing to, and its against the rules.

 

[scorza]

However much of a set back you think Brexit will be (it won't be), we must respect the outcome of the referendum. Backing out now will be a complete disaster for this country, will make us look like cowards and indecisive fools. The rest of the EU will have us over a barrel while the rest of the world will not take us seriously.

 

[malachi]

For the people who are shouting "trigger article 50 now" Can you please explain how would that happen if the UK owes billions(i think) to the EU? I'm sure you wouldnt let someone just simply walk away if they owned you a crap load of money and continue to live their everyday life as normal.

Yeah, the government could raise taxes to pay off the bill but over how many years that would take? On top of the many people who are already struggling with rising costs of living. Did anyone think of that when voting out?

 

[Tefal]

For the people who are shouting "trigger article 50 now" Can you please explain how would that happen if the UK owes billions(i think) to the EU? I'm sure you wouldnt let someone just simply walk away if they owned you a crap load of money and continue to live their everyday life as normal.

Yeah, the government could raise taxes to pay off the bill but over how many years that would take? On top of the many people who are already struggling with rising costs of living. Did anyone think of that when voting out?

define "owes billions"?

do you mean our yearly membership fees?

they would continue to the end of article 50 then they would stop as we're not a member.r

or are you saying we;ve had some form of loan from the eu?

 

[scorza]

For the people who are shouting "trigger article 50 now" Can you please explain how would that happen if the UK owes billions(i think) to the EU? I'm sure you wouldnt let someone just simply walk away if they owned you a crap load of money and continue to live their everyday life as normal.

Yeah, the government could raise taxes to pay off the bill but over how many years that would take? On top of the many people who are already struggling with rising costs of living. Did anyone think of that when voting out?

That's the sort of thing that the Article 50 negotiations need to sort out. I'm not too sure about what we owe to the EU or the terms of how/when we should pay them back. The new Chancellor of the Exchequer will be giving an Autumn Statement some time in the next few months which will set out the new thinking on tax and spending, it's generally reckoned unlikely to include harsh austerity measures like tax rises.

 

[Chris Wilson]

So now we trust experts? Go over to these countries speak to people and see the political mood. The majority of the people in these countries are pro EU... And they haven't had the media or the government for the past decade blaming literally ANYTHING negative happpening on the EU. No one else is leaving.

The people here in the UK were not for leaving according to the pundits. Until the actual vote 2 months ago, that is I am confident other member states will see a sinking ship and want to get off quite soon. The swing to the Right in several member states will see they get a chance to air their grievances against this Liberal nightmare.

 

[Bonjour]

Funny you now seem to believe what an 'expert' has to say when it coincides with what you want to hear

Or when it comes from the Daily Mail and / or Daily Express.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

So now we trust experts? Go over to these countries speak to people and see the political mood. The majority of the people in these countries are pro EU... And they haven't had the media or the government for the past decade blaming literally ANYTHING negative happpening on the EU. No one else is leaving.

To the other person about farage. If I had been moaning about the EU and running the parliment and asking for a referendum I would have had a plan. Hi f course I agree he's not in parliment so can't do much. But I do not see him offering help... Saying here is our plan. Why.... Because there was none. Why brexiters defence this I do not know. In any other situation in life for things like this... Job interviews... Project planning... You'd expect to have just that

People always quote the dutch. I work closely with dutch people daily and visit Holland.
I was actually in Holland the day of the referendum, the whole week in fact.
Lots of them were discussing it, and obviously wanted my views. The overwhelming majority said that the EU needed to change, just like most Brits, but they also said they would not vote to leave, they would be pushing to reform.
They were literally stunned however that we would act on a referendum to the degree we were indicating we would.
I can't see the dutch leaving at all, it didn't seem to be a remote possibility to any of them, even those most against the EU that actually leaving was a good idea.
But then they are more part of Europe than the UK, we never really wanted to play by the rules of the club, always thinking we knew better.

 

[Tefal]

People always quote the dutch. I work closely with dutch people daily and visit Holland.
I was actually in Holland the day of the referendum, the whole week in fact.
Lots of them were discussing it, and obviously wanted my views. The overwhelming majority said that the EU needed to change, just like most Brits, but they also said they would not vote to leave, they would be pushing to reform.
They were literally stunned however that we would act on a referendum to the degree we were indicating we would.
I can't see the dutch leaving at all, it didn't seem to be a remote possibility to any of them, even those most against the EU that actually leaving was a good idea.
But then they are more part of Europe than the UK, we never really wanted to play by the rules of the club, always thinking we knew better.

and if you visit London and talk to the people there you'd leave 100% convinced that the UK loves the eu and wants to stay in.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

not undemocratic...but it is impossible.

we can't negotiate until after article 50 is triggered.

Europe is refusing to, and its against the rules.

There is always ways and means, nothing to stop some rewriting of A50 for example.

It was a hastily put together article based on the fact there looked to be a high chance of Greece exiting, unplanned.

Its clear now that some of the time frames are unrealistic and that the process leans more towards failure than orderly exit.

Do you not think however that if we went to the council of members and suggested we would like to hold a validation vote at the end of A50 they would say no. I would bet they would push the changes to legislation to allow this, at the end of the day I think pretty much all the leaders of the EU want UK to stay.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

and if you visit London and talk to the people there you'd leave 100% convinced that the UK loves the eu and wants to stay in.

No you wouldn't at all. I do go to London, its more pro EU but certainly not 100%.

Plus I dont go to Amsterdam mainly if you want to infer thats like London, i go closer to the Belgian border, a more industrialised area.
Holland is harder to correlate to the UK than some other countries like France, as due to the size of Holland its just different.

 

[antijoke]

Well having lost a week of all this crap when I went away on holiday, I have to say now I am back and hearing all this **** is still a complete shambles and no real further forward I am sick to the back teeth of it all.

Still people speculating, we wont leave, we will never trigger A50, this and that. What a mess.

Rant over.

 

[n111ck]

People always quote the dutch. I work closely with dutch people daily and visit Holland.
I was actually in Holland the day of the referendum, the whole week in fact.
Lots of them were discussing it, and obviously wanted my views. The overwhelming majority said that the EU needed to change, just like most Brits, but they also said they would not vote to leave, they would be pushing to reform.
They were literally stunned however that we would act on a referendum to the degree we were indicating we would.
I can't see the dutch leaving at all, it didn't seem to be a remote possibility to any of them, even those most against the EU that actually leaving was a good idea.
But then they are more part of Europe than the UK, we never really wanted to play by the rules of the club, always thinking we knew better.

Pushing to reform? Lol didnt we try that and it didnt work out well - in fact it probably fueled a lot of anti EU sentiment (and Leave votes). Not sure a relatively trivial country would have more luck.

 

[Burnsy2023]

Pushing to reform? Lol didnt we try that and it didnt work out well - in fact it probably fueled a lot of anti EU sentiment (and Leave votes). Not sure a relatively trivial country would have more luck.

Our attempt was half-hearted at best. Even then we did achieve some interesting concessions which have since been discarded.