Theory question about probability in online casino games

[dowie]

If my very ropey understanding is correct, 10 repetitions of something with 2 possible outcomes has 1024 possible combinations. So if we ignore the green(s) for the sake of simplicity, the chance of getting 10 consecutive reds is 1/1024th the chance of not getting 10 consecutive reds.

almost - it isn't '1/1024th the chance of not getting 10 consecutive reds.'

it is simply 1/1024


and the chance of it not occurring in those 10 reparations is therefore 1023/1024

if you want to describe it as in the above sentence then it is 1/1023 the chance of not getting 10 consecutive reds... in other words the event that it doesn't occur is 1023 times more likely

or, in gambling terms, the odds of it occurring are 1023:1 against

 

[Efour]

I hate this subject and I'm glad I'm useless at it otherwise I'd probably have turned to gambling for money at some point in my life.

 

[Tosno]

I'm only doing the £5/£10/£20 risk free slots with £1 spins but I am finding the variance about right. Majority of the time it's like -£1 -£1 +£1 -£1 until I'm spent. But one time on Zuma I won £170~ to bring the variance right up where it should be.

I have no idea how people play slots without risk free money, I feel low energy just losing risk free.

 

[FurryLemon]

Slots are an addiction.

I've watched a Chinese man play 100 dollar spins once in Vegas while my table was on a break. He must have put in 10k in in the short time I was there. They feed you all the alcohol you want as well as alcohol makes you reckless.

 

[jsmoke]

Firstly, there is no way to produce a truly random number in code, gets complex and I am by no means an expert but read about it here,

http://softwareengineering.stackexc...it-impossible-to-produce-truly-random-numbers

Secondly, who, if anyone, monitors the code going into these apps, bit like the American electronic voting machines, there does seem to be some agency assigned to examine the code in the machines to some degree but it's all clouded in mystery, all cloak and dagger stuff, not even the Government have authority to look into them.

So does anyone know if there is an agency that looks into what code of these gambling apps, I would 100% imagine it's all tailored toward the house, at least 49/51 odds. As they say the house always wins.

These apps are made in flash, so technically you can decompile them, give youself lots of numbers, recompile and send result back to the server, in theory anyway.

 

[Greebo]

I once saw 26 reds in a row on an online reputable casino.

And nothing weird about that. It's just as likely as red/black 12 times.

 

[dowie]

No it isn't actually.

If you were saying what is the probability of the next 26 being red then that is the same as any other combination. However if you're asking about the probability of some sequence being observed at some point when playing a session of roulette, that is a different matter... so in that context someone saying they saw 26 reds (or indeed 26 blacks) that sequence actually has a lower probability of occurring within a particular session than other combinations of 26 spins. See my previous post for a simpler example.

 

[Angilion]

Slots are an addiction.

I've watched a Chinese man play 100 dollar spins once in Vegas while my table was on a break. He must have put in 10k in in the short time I was there. They feed you all the alcohol you want as well as alcohol makes you reckless.

Which is why that's illegal here. Rightly so in my opinion.

 

[danlightbulb]

example, looking for a particular sequences of 3 spins, red black black is much more likely to occur first than black black black...(7 times more likely in fact) have a think about why that is.

You've got me beat on this. Would love an explanation though.

As I see it (ignoring zero):
P(black, black, black) = P(black) * P(black) * P(black) = 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5
P(red, black, black) = P(red) * P(black) * P(black) = 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5

I.e both the same?

 

[robfosters]

With so many clever people on here, I'm amazed we can't come up with a system to take the bookies for everything they've got.

 

[Kenai]

You've got me beat on this. Would love an explanation though.

As I see it (ignoring zero):
P(black, black, black) = P(black) * P(black) * P(black) = 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5
P(red, black, black) = P(red) * P(black) * P(black) = 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5

I.e both the same?

He's talking about the probability of finding that sequence amongst a long chain of results, rather than as a result of three particular spins. This means the probability is sort of affected by what comes before and after I think. I get the feeling he's explained it on here before so hopefully he will again

Edit - Actually I think I remember now - for bbb to occur for the first time along the sequence, unless it is the first three spins, you would have seen rbb immediately before it.

https://forums.overclockers.co.uk/showthread.php?t=18665584

 

[FurryLemon]

With so many clever people on here, I'm amazed we can't come up with a system to take the bookies for everything they've got.

The only beatable games are the ones where the player can influence the outcome. Most of what you gamble on (gamble being the word) in the bookies cannot be influenced by the individual doing the betting.

 

[Tosno]

With so many clever people on here, I'm amazed we can't come up with a system to take the bookies for everything they've got.

Death duty 1:50 Nass

 

[danlightbulb]

With so many clever people on here, I'm amazed we can't come up with a system to take the bookies for everything they've got.

Its called matched betting, and that's what's prompted these questions as I end up with quite a few free spins from it.

How about this one.

Let's say you have 100 free spins and you hit a big win half way through. Should you stop and come back the next day to carry on or does it not matter?

The premise being that you've had a win. If it was your own cash that would be the right choice. But for free spins, does it matter?

If I understand the theory correctly, the slot is random. So it should not matter what you have won. But I often see slots go on losing streaks and sometimes they go on winning streaks. Is this true randomness or is something else going on?

 

[gandhi]

Are online gambling machines weighted in favour of the owners? Yes, of course they are!!!

On a roulette table at any one time, is there an squeak chance of red or black? theoretically, yes. Practically, no. Chaos theory kicks in and things like air pressure, manufacturing tolerances of the ball and table, vibration erc etc etc all have an effect and start to skew the result.

 

[FurryLemon]

Its called matched betting, and that's what's prompted these questions as I end up with quite a few free spins from it.

How about this one.

Let's say you have 100 free spins and you hit a big win half way through. Should you stop and come back the next day to carry on or does it not matter?

The premise being that you've had a win. If it was your own cash that would be the right choice. But for free spins, does it matter?

If I understand the theory correctly, the slot is random. So it should not matter what you have won. But I often see slots go on losing streaks and sometimes they go on winning streaks. Is this true randomness or is something else going on?

Matched betting isn't beating the bookies, as the bookies are the one offering the matched betting. If they didn't profit from it, they wouldn't allow it.

The chance of hitting the jackpot on a slot machine is many millions to 1, but it does happen. No different then when people win the lottery really. Except slots get expensive quickly.

 

[danlightbulb]

Are online gambling machines weighted in favour of the owners? Yes, of course they are!!!

On a roulette table at any one time, is there an squeak chance of red or black? theoretically, yes. Practically, no. Chaos theory kicks in and things like air pressure, manufacturing tolerances of the ball and table, vibration erc etc etc all have an effect and start to skew the result.

Yes but that's not the question. I know there is a house edge.

For example, today I won £20 on some free spins which I had to wager through. I got through £75 of wagering on a slot which has an average payout of 96%, at which point my balance had gone to zero. 96% of £75 is £72. So after that wagering I would have expected to lose just £3, but I had lost £20. This is due to the variance of the slot.

On other days I have managed to keep going through hundreds of pounds worth of wagering whilst staying alive with balance.

Assuming the slot is truly random, then I would expect my experience with them to be much more consistent, but it's not.

We are talking hundreds of spins here, not a handful. If you played through hundreds of spins on roulette you'd expect to lose just over 2% of your cash that's all.


So my question still stands. Are you more likely to lose after you've hit a win? And if you happen to be having a losing streak, does walking away and coming back another time make any difference?

 

[Tosno]

Its called matched betting, and that's what's prompted these questions as I end up with quite a few free spins from it.

How about this one.

Let's say you have 100 free spins and you hit a big win half way through. Should you stop and come back the next day to carry on or does it not matter?

The premise being that you've had a win. If it was your own cash that would be the right choice. But for free spins, does it matter?

If I understand the theory correctly, the slot is random. So it should not matter what you have won. But I often see slots go on losing streaks and sometimes they go on winning streaks. Is this true randomness or is something else going on?

I've had two bonus rounds on the same play through on Robo Buck's Garages.

 

[dowie]

The only beatable games are the ones where the player can influence the outcome. Most of what you gamble on (gamble being the word) in the bookies cannot be influenced by the individual doing the betting.

But your initial claim in this context is pretty dubious.

A bet at a bookies with positive expectation doesn't require you to have influenced anything prior to placing that bet and bookies aren't always efficient at pricing various bets.

He's talking about the probability of finding that sequence amongst a long chain of results, rather than as a result of three particular spins. This means the probability is sort of affected by what comes before and after I think. I get the feeling he's explained it on here before so hopefully he will again

Edit - Actually I think I remember now - for bbb to occur for the first time along the sequence, unless it is the first three spins, you would have seen rbb immediately before it.

https://forums.overclockers.co.uk/showthread.php?t=18665584

indeed, it does seem to get people quite confused

 

[FurryLemon]

Yes but that's not the question. I know there is a house edge.

For example, today I won £20 on some free spins which I had to wager through. I got through £75 of wagering on a slot which has an average payout of 96%, at which point my balance had gone to zero. 96% of £75 is £72. So after that wagering I would have expected to lose just £3, but I had lost £20. This is due to the variance of the slot.

On other days I have managed to keep going through hundreds of pounds worth of wagering whilst staying alive with balance.

Assuming the slot is truly random, then I would expect my experience with them to be much more consistent, but it's not.

We are talking hundreds of spins here, not a handful. If you played through hundreds of spins on roulette you'd expect to lose just over 2% of your cash that's all.


So my question still stands. Are you more likely to lose after you've hit a win? And if you happen to be having a losing streak, does walking away and coming back another time make any difference?

No slot has a payout of 96% where did you see that?