We can't directly imply the difference between race and qualifying yet. They have more fuel, with higher drag but if they added a little more fuel. IE 10% more fuel but fuel usage is only expected to go up by 5% then they can push harder in the race, which would also mean less different to ultimate lap pace for qualifying. Also they may have been at the limit for fuel flow in qualifying making it harder to increase the times by as much there.
I still think there will be a big gap, but honestly until we hit Australia we can't know what the gap between race/qualifying pace really is.
There is also the fact that the tires have a wider operating temp and less degredation, neither make too much difference to qualifying, you go them as hot as you needed and deg didn't matter. In the race though last few years was purely about keeping in a temp window. So again that could bring race pace up compared to qualifying pace.
It's also possible for it to have increased, the gap between race/quali pace that is. It could be they upped fuel 10% but higher drag, heavier car has increased fuel usage by 12% and maybe the tires though they can be pushed harder in a race, give up even more grip at peak temp in qualifying.
Mclaren doing a short run on ultras and are near 3 seconds off. Who knows exactly how hard they or anyone else are pushing on their fastest laps yet though. Presumably everyone is no where near maxed engine, but if all at the same say 90%, then Mclaren looks very slow.