Manchester Bombing *** Please remain respectful and refrain from antagonising posts ***

Soldato
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that is pretty dubious - 9/11 occurred prior to the the invasion of Iraq and frankly the arab spring happened organically - there is a good chance Iraq would have been fighting a civil war alongside Syria at the moment regardless... anyway the bomber in this case had a Libyan background/ancestry
yet this attacker wasn't from Iraq and was a British citizen, plenty of those attacking Europe are European citizens, France didn't invade Iraq and they've suffered attacks...

Tunisia, Libya(initially), Syria, Egypt etc.. have little to do with Western intervention
9/11 was almost certainly not related to Saddam's regime.
What do you base the good chances of a civil war in either country on (in the absence of both the growth of ISIS and/or 2 city sized populations deaths), note Saddam had ruled Iraq since 1979, I'm unaware of a Civil war in that time, though he may have killed half as many people in those years as the intervention did in far less time.
The current stories on the Manchester attack have linked our homegrown idiots radicalisation to ISIS, maybe a factor maybe not!

indeed, we didn't have Serbian and Russian orthodox terrorists after intervening in the Balkans, we didn't have to deal with West African terrorists after intervention in Sierra Leone, we din't deal with Spanish/Argentinian terrorists after the Falklands yet we're supposed to let our forgiven policy be dictated by a minority of extremists when it comes to intervening in a muslim country... obviously in the case of Bosnia and Kosovo the intervention is OK if the 'enemy' are a non-muslim side

I honestly know far less about these random military actions you equate, what were the outcomes like for people, better or worse than before we intervened?
My advice take a utilitarian approach, how many men women and children (both absolute and as a percentage) died that in all probability would not have if we hadn't taken action?
 
Soldato
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@stewski No I don't concede that, I never denied that in the first place. If you're going to confuse things then perhaps you should use the quote function as mentioned before - ideally when you read the thing you're confused about rather than trying to remember several pages later....

To be honest I don't care if you "concede" or now "agree" despite appearing to say
Tunisia, Libya(initially), Syria, Egypt etc.. have little to do with Western intervention
earlier.
More important is to agree to shut down those looking to continue the exact unilateral interventionist policies that have apparently failed!
 
Soldato
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Surely there is no way to know one way or the other.
Well the past is not a perfect predictor of the future.

Between 1979 - 2003 Saddam's disgusting Regime the estimated number killed by his forces are likely 250K
Between 2003 - 2006 The conflict likely claimed 600K

Still I'm sure "we can never know"...
 
Caporegime
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9/11 was almost certainly not related to Saddam's regime.
What do you base the good chances of a civil war in either country on (in the absence of both the growth of ISIS and/or 2 city sized populations deaths), note Saddam had ruled Iraq since 1979, I'm unaware of a Civil war in that time, though he may have killed half as many people in those years as the intervention did in far less time.

No one has claimed 9/11 was related to Saddam's regime?
There was an uprising in the south right after gulf war 1, it didn't get enough momentum at the time and sadly the US didn't support it as the participants had hoped.

What I base my statement on is the fact that uprisings took place in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Syria... given that the minority Sunnies were in power in Iraq, the majority of the population are Shia and uprisings were took place in various other Arab countries against dictators, including the country next door, it seems pretty likely that if there was still a dictator from a minority background in Iraq then you'd see the same there.

I honestly know far less about these random military actions you equate, what were the outcomes like for people, better or worse than before we intervened?
My advice take a utilitarian approach, how many men women and children (both absolute and as a percentage) died that in all probability would not have if we hadn't taken action?

better, well from the UK/local population perspective at least in the case of the Falklands - I'm not sure the Argies think that way though. Ditto to the Serbs and Kosovo - I doubt they share our perspective there but then perhaps they shouldn't have engaged in mass killings. Unfortunately re: your second part politicians and military planners don't have a crystal ball and so can only make predictions using incomplete information and models.

To be honest I don't care if you "concede" or now "agree" despite appearing to say earlier.
More important is to agree to shut down those looking to continue the exact unilateral interventionist policies that have apparently failed!

What in particular is your issue with that quote? The situation in Syria occurred organically as a result of a series of protests culminating in a popular uprising. You seem to be focusing on the fact ISIS is involved there now but ISIS weren't the cause of the conflict, they simply became a participant after it started along with many other islamist groups (some members of which then became part of ISIS - if ISIS didn't exist those islamists would still be there just with different branding).

as I said before: Tunisia, Libya(initially), Syria, Egypt etc.. have little to do with Western intervention - these situations arose as a result of the arab spring
 
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Associate
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I think it's fair to also say the interventions which have not been unsuccessful have been a result of poor post intervention planning, Especially Iraq. Disolving the armed forced and 'de-barth-ification' contributed significantly to ISIS's formation for one.
 
Soldato
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Soldato
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The west didn't really do much in Libya, we took out Ghaddafi and gave a platform for transition. Don't think you'll find many people from Libya that disagreed with the Nato led intervention.

This is very wrong. NATO support was responsible for the overthrow of the Libyan government. There was a small armed insurgency in Benghazi in the East of Libya. The insurgents attacked a military base and seized the weapons. They had already at this point been engaged in diplomatic contact with Western governments as evidenced by the rapid roll out of oil selling agreements between them and Western oil companies such as Heritage oil. Ditto with Qatar which supplied large numbers of soldiers to make up the "popular uprising". NATO bombed countrywide destroying the Libyan army and bombing towns that were loyal to Gaddhafi even where there was no local resistance to him (e.g. Tripoli). All of this is easily proven. You'll find many people in Libya who disagreed with the NATO bombing. Particularly those who lost loved ones to it and all those who didn't want to see a group of vicious racists in bed with foreign powers take control of their country. I'll back up both of those statements. In towns occupied by the rebels, there are instances of them rounding up Black people and bussing them out of town and lynching them. The rebels also immediately started agreeing favourable oil deals with the west (i.e. within about a month of the so called uprising) and selling oil to Qatar cheap. Libya's oil reserves were publically owned. The rebels looted the country. Libya was also one of the few world nations that was not in debt. The "National Transitional Council" - the Western drop-in government for Libya agreed loans on behalf of the country to fund their "uprising" against the existing Libyan government and today it's gone from having billions of national surplus invested to being several billon in debt. It seems that it would surprise you that Ghaddafi had a lot of support in Libya. He overthrew the European backed king of Libya in a successful, bloodless coup and replaced it with a unified council of the different tribes in Libya - historically enemies and held it together for decades with all tribes represented. It wasn't a voting democracy but nor was it an unopposed dictator, it was a coalition of tribal groups. It had the highest literacy rates in North Africa, the highest doctor per capita rate and a social care system that would, based on your post, astonish you.

Heaven? No. Different to Western portrayals? Very much so. Equal to the hundreds of millions of pounds we spent on bombing the country to bits was a huge propaganda war. There were stories that Gaddhafi was supplying condoms and viagra to the army to help them better rape protesting civillians. Amnesty International found no such evidence. Capture of towns by the rebels against the citizens wishes were repeatedly portrayed in Western media as grateful liberations. Stories of Gaddafi sending tanks to kill protestors were spread rather than the factual version which was that Benghazi insurgents were armed and attacking military bases.

The National Transitional Council even executed its own generals (General Younes's body had severed fingers, one eye gouged out, a cut to the belly and appears to have been killed by burning). Gruesome but predictable by an organization that ethnically cleansed towns it occupied of Black people. And of course one might expect that the former head of state would be captured alive if possible, but no - they actively went out of their way to murder Gaddhafi. Not really surprising given the embarrassing things he could say about Western political figures but a good example of the sort of people we handed the country to. And you honestly think ordinary Libyans who had been mostly getting on with their lives wanted all this?

Libya was not ideal but it was not Saddam's Iraq and quality of life and human rights were better there than a number of our actual allies. Today, Libya has three governments and two competing parliaments and is a war-torn Hell hole with a ruined economy, infrastructure and its main export is smuggled weapons and terrorists.

All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. Edmund Burke.

Great quote, quite appropriate.

Implied in that quote is that the people doing something are "good". When they're not, when their interests are securing oil and installing their own favourable governments, then I don't think the quote applies. I think it better applies to those of us who allowed our government to destroy so many lives and didn't stop them.

I mean this seriously - instead of simply disagreeing with me, do some research, look into it and realise you are uninformed on this subject.
 
Soldato
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No one has claimed 9/11 was related to Saddam's regime?
So you brought it up because?


There was an uprising in the south right after gulf war 1, it didn't get enough momentum at the time and sadly the US didn't support it as the participants had hoped.

You bring up an uprising that was small (relatively) and easily quashed, following a western intervention, to support the idea that Civil War had a good chance of Occurring in Iraq even without western intervention because?

What I base my statement on is the fact that uprisings took place in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Syria... given that the minority Sunnies were in power in Iraq, the majority of the population are Shia and uprisings were took place in various other Arab countries against dictators, including the country next door, it seems pretty likely that if there was still a dictator from a minority background in Iraq then you'd see the same there.

I'm starting to understand a pattern in your flawed position, uprising = civil war?


better, well from the UK/local population perspective at least in the case of the Falklands - I'm not sure the Argies think that way though. Ditto to the Serbs and Kosovo - I doubt they share our perspective there but then perhaps they shouldn't have engaged in mass killings. Unfortunately re: your second part politicians and military planners don't have a crystal ball and so can only make predictions using incomplete information and models.

None of the above really attempts to show why any of these are as equivalent as you paint them, did any result in a loss of life at the rate of 200K per year for example?


What in particular is your issue with that quote?

The primary issue I have with your quote
Tunisia, Libya(initially), Syria, Egypt etc.. have little to do with Western intervention - these situations arose as a result of the arab spring

Is that it entirely discounts the affects of our recent interventions in the region on the behaviour of various groups in the region including ISIS and those involved in the Arab Spring, presumably because you use the word "organically".

The situation in Syria occurred organically as a result of a series of protests culminating in a popular uprising. You seem to be focusing on the fact ISIS is involved there now but ISIS weren't the cause of the conflict, they simply became a participant after it started along with many other islamist groups (some members of which then became part of ISIS - if ISIS didn't exist those islamists would still be there just with different branding).

It appear when you use the word Organically it's as if you believe that prevents western action in neighbouring countries and the growth in power of radicalised groups operating in those countries, of having any effect. If a state invaded Ireland, killed 600K over three years and radical Irish "freedom fighters" moved to the UK, anything happening "organically" in the UK would be entirely unrelated?

as I said before: Tunisia, Libya(initially), Syria, Egypt etc.. have little to do with Western intervention - these situations arose as a result of the arab spring

Both the Arab Spring and the ISIS faction (And Al -Nusar Front) in Syria are not likely to be unrelated to unilateral behaviour claiming hundreds of thousands of lives next door (where ISIS had been incubated), just saying organically doesn't really change that!
 
Caporegime
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But fail to point out the 1.5 million deaths of the Iraq v Iran war. Please make it balanced at least.

Please read this
http://web.stanford.edu/group/mappingmilitants/cgi-bin/groups/view/1

wiki said:
The Iran–Iraq War was an armed conflict between Iran and Iraq lasting from 22 September 1980, when Iraq invaded Iran, to August 1988. The war followed a long history of border disputes, and was motivated by fears that the Iranian Revolution in 1979 would inspire insurgency among Iraq's long-suppressed Shi'ite majority, as well as Iraq's desire to replace Iran as the dominant Persian Gulf state.

Guess who was involved in the bold, you cannot talk about individual actions without implicating the US and Britain (in Iran's case, very specifically BP).

Literally every conflict in the last century regarding the middle-east has US, French or British influence somewhere involved. It needn't be bombs at all, simple transactions of money to the Al-Sauds or supporting regimes is all that is required for complicity.
 
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Caporegime
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So you brought it up because?

I didn't, you did. My only reference to 9/11 is that it occurred before Iraq... in reply to your claim that it was the invasion of Iraq that cause these various issues with Islamists. I didn't link 9/11 with Saddam.

You bring up an uprising that was small (relatively) and easily quashed, following a western intervention, to support the idea that Civil War had a good chance of Occurring in Iraq even without western intervention because?

this has been covered already - because uprisings/civil wars occurred in various other Arab countries including the one next door.

I can see this going round in circles now that it has turned into a multi quote mess of one line snippets being replied to with one line comments...
 
Soldato
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The reason we have a better world now than 100 years ago is what we've all agreed upon as being a good person, it's the reason the world is better than it was 500 years ago, 1000 years ago.

I disagree. There were plenty of moral people 500 years ago as well. And the monkey study you cite would apply as equally back then as it does today - evolution has not significantly changed our morality in the last 1,000 years, I believe. The reason, I think, that we have a better world today is for two reasons above all others. Firstly, the vast improvements brought into our lives by the technology we have developed and secondly the increasing level of general education and accompanying informedness of the general population about what is taking place around them in real time.

Even then I'd challenge the premise of your argument to a substantial degree. Five-hundred years ago in the UK was 1517. The average person had more holidays in a year, Martin Luther (not that one) was kicking off the Protestant Reformation bringing an understanding of Christianity to the lay person, Europe was opening up new trade with the New World, there were new developments in arts (Mona Lisa painted in this period and Michaelangelo's David completed), cities and towns burgeoning throughout England. Why do you presume that the average person today is happier than the average person in the early Sixteenth Century? Indeed, current psychological research suggests we're actually less happy today than our ancestors. And if that's not what you're arguing then what definition of "better" are you using? Healthier, more opportunities for travel, more information at our fingertips? I refer you back to my statement that all these are more properly attributable to technology than rhesus monkeys.

Frankly, the better one's knowledge of history the less inclined one is to agree with your proposal that people in the 16th Century were so much morally inferior than people today. About the only areas I can see a case for that are animal rights (our ancestors were big on blood sports) and sexual liberation (our improvement again being as much to do with the technology of birth control and increasing general level of education as anything else). Everything else, I think you need to support before it can be taken as a basic premise.
 
Caporegime
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Utterly wrong, i would class those Libyans as disgusting if they supported Qaddafi.

The Qaddafi files are an excellent read. There's lots about it from many sources.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2011/10/20/the-qaddafi-files-2/

Your comment indicates you have little understanding of what actually went on in Libya and what is still going on.

A significant number of Libyans prospered under Gadaffi. That doesn't mean they condoned everything he did however.

Here's a good starting point - an ominous foreshadowing of what actually happened.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-12528996

Out of interest do you actually know any Libyans to insist that I'm utterly wrong? I'm going to suggest not.
 
Caporegime
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Lots of Germans did well under Hitler... well until WW2 that is.

They did pretty well during the first half of the war as i remember, plus if they won, they would have the privileged status of being Germans in the greater Nazi Empire. But lets ignore that because bias.

Anyway, i'm out. This thread is pointless.
 
Soldato
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I didn't, you did. My only reference to 9/11 is that it occurred before Iraq... in reply to your claim that it was the invasion of Iraq that cause these various issues with Islamists. I didn't link 9/11 with Saddam.

So a gross simplification of my position with deliberately vague language.
Your remarking of Al Qaeda lead 9/11 terror, when we were directly discussing the effects of Unilateral intervention in Iraq is a Joke. I'll break it down, Saddam and Osama were not allies, more likely enemies, you may as well say there was "Human" terror before Iraq! Additionally the ONLY thing that really matters at this point is if similar interventions are more likely to increase the power of radical organisations or Not, a point with Iraq you have already conceded (between duplicitously saying the opposite).

this has been covered already - because uprisings/civil wars occurred in various other Arab countries including the one next door.

I can see this going round in circles now that it has turned into a multi quote mess of one line snippets being replied to with one line comments...

In summary
Quote me.
Gosh darn it, Ill simplify what you said with no quotes then say, Don't Quote me!
 
Caporegime
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I don't see how highlighting your usual deflections in these sorts of threads is contradictory? You've not really explained that very well at all. What question exactly do you want me to answer?

You can see that engaging in this wahataboutery nonsense would be spurious in the case of the Catholic Church/molestation topic yet you do it frequently in threads about Islamists.

And you still haven't answered the question I see. It's a simple one at that.

And I'm confused about your second paragraph. Are we arguing for the same point? I totally agree with it. It would be spurious to argue that Christianity needs to change because of the actions of the Catholic Church* - yet if people started insisting that then I'd also point out that same spuriosity(?), in the same way I'm doing now regarding Islam and this thread.

You on the other hand seem to be arguing that it would be spurious to argue that WRT Christianity, but not Islam. Why is that?

So I'll ask the again. Why do you think that Christianity doesn't have problems even though some are using it to further their intolerant aims, yet believe Islam has problems because some are using it to further their intolerant aims. I'll then go further and ask another question - how do you not see that as contradictory.

Please don't go all Arazi on us and start consistently ignoring questions and claiming "deflection, deflection, deflection".

On which note I notice Arazi has been in this thread and still not answered the question posed a few pages ago - the same question he's been asked multiple times in the past.

*BUT I would be all for arguing that the Catholic Church needs to have some reform - which they appear to be trying to do.
 
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