I will be interested to know the results of this one.
FWIW on a stag do i was mugged, i was wasted of course (or "had a few drinks as i told the bank) i tried to use my bank card at an ATM outside a club where i presume i was shoulder surfed.
The funny thing here and why i nearly got away with it (but could have been sooooooooo much worse) the card did not work as i had not told them i was going abroad.
3 hrs, numerous drinks later in a packed club i went in my wallet.. all my cards were there BUT were all jumbled up and in wrong place.
i went back to appartment, phoned emergency numbers and every card had been attempted with same pin, and multiple purchases put on all cards. thank god my credit cards had different pins than my debit cards - the credit cards WOULD have worked... but my 2 different debit cards shared the same pin number . Long story short, i lost 300 euros from 1 debit card at ATM, the other didnt work, and the pin was rejected on the credit cards.
the 2 credit cards had a few 1000s of transactions put on, all of which were successfully cancelled so no loss there, the attempted charges on the debit cards never went through as blocked as suspicious
but when i asked the bank about the 300 euros, they told me to buzz off, pin number used and the cards were in my possession - it would have been simpler to just say they were nicked. the person on the phone said she understood it was likely part of the scam, give the cards back to give them longer to exploit the cards if i did not know they were exploited, but that it was policy to reject all such cases....... I would say your mate is playing high stakes... i reckon he has a better chance of getting his money back by saying the cards were stolen.... but with such a large sum it is more likley that it will be investigated than my rather paltry 300 euros so it is equally quite possible he may be caught in a lie.
now when i go on holiday i take 1 credit card with me for emergencies but if i am out drinking i do not take it with me, and just take cash. another option which can be good is to get a prepaid card that you can load up, but i have not done that yet.