Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

I do see a perfect storm forming right now:

- All time highs for Tech firms
- Covid Wave 2?
- China and Hong Kong
- China & UK (Huawei)
- China & USA
- Furlough scheme stop in September

Hard to work out where money should be - in my pocket or in the market.

I've held FCSS for years and the last week it's suddenly shooting up.

Not sure what to make of that, why China now? China and HK isn't a good situation; I can see their economy restarting post-covid, but enough challenges ahead. Hold or sell, the age-old dilemma.
 
I've held FCSS for years and the last week it's suddenly shooting up.

Not sure what to make of that, why China now? China and HK isn't a good situation; I can see their economy restarting post-covid, but enough challenges ahead. Hold or sell, the age-old dilemma.
I hold FCSS too which I bought when it was launched. I sold half of it years ago too which obviously I now wish I hadn't :). It wasn't going anywhere back then so reduced my holding when the main guy stepped down (forgot his name now!).
For me it's a long term hold so will continue to hold it. One of the Chinese index contracts (China A50) broke a new high yesterday which puts a forward projection of nearly 2x current price according to one analyst (not guaranteed of course :) ). The reason I mention this market is because FCSS seems to be closely following it, from the quick look I had yesterday.

China dealt with COVID swiftly it seems and while they rely on a healthy world, will no doubt be way ahead of the curve and back to full force before the West, IMO. + there's the printing too they'll be doing to prop things up :D.
 
As someone that basically doesn't have any investments atm I'm still trying to weigh up whether to start now or leave cash in the bank (on its paltry interest rate) - shame I didn't get in back in March but hey ho! Have to say some of the figures look a bit scary atm - e.g. S&P near its all time high, at a time when massive numbers of people are unemployed and businesses still recovering from Covid, in addition to all the global uncertainties as tlrBeta points out... Just doesn't feel right to me! It seems to be so dependent on what level of support governments are willing to pump into the stock market, and just don't know how much to rely on that.... Then again Trump at least does seem pretty wedded to it as a measure of his personal success! Might end up dipping a toe in, maybe avoiding too much exposure to Western markets... More research to do.
 
Whats the currency hedge on that trust. I have a japan fund that shorts yen, often wrong but ultimately will be right though sadly sterling is kinda broke too. Scale in or out sounds more on point or compare and contrast but to hold just cash I dont like overall unless theres the idea to reduce debt like mortgage which I generally agree with in terms of taking profits.

Spotted a chart for TSLA. Glad I closed that short at 300 then :o Never thought of going long in march like this guy has it all worked out, like this is the wonder stock but in terms of speculation and bubblenomics it fits just right. Totally take some profits, withdraw the original capital if somehow you have the mad genius to actually be holding this.
A totally simple reasonable chart, guess I lack the balls of titanium to buy or lithium whatever they are about. I have seen good vids explaining why their product floats thanks to government pay back from their production exceeding other car makers on zero emissions.
Maybe similar to Honda in the 70's as the only manufacturer to know how to pass California emissions, no other maker had a choice but to pay royalties on a design license. The other makers are paying Tesla now apparently. Also it'd be about the software not the batteries which are just 18650, same deal as your laptop bundles together and I presume is not the proprietary part. They are great tech but its not a USP, its the rest of the design and their headstart over other makers, economies of scale perhaps. [oil price falling, poor demand is not bullish for alternative energy tech I guess]

HSBA as such a large part of FTSE is not doing great but in June alone it has been up. China moving to decisively end the freedom of people like the rest of their subjects is not a happy thought but might easily be why those prices might be up. Kinda like a company that announces job cuts can rise quite a lot because its lower costs and is seen as decisive action.
I always thought STAN should be a better prospect but its not been great for years since they had to pay a fine for breaking sanctions was it, yep 1.1bn lost with Iran

Gold didnt pull back much, I didnt capture any low very well because it wasn't a proper sell. I do think anything that booms will end up possibly halving at some points, gold will sell because its used as cash but also will remain in demand. The basic reasoning being inflation does not represent growth, it will show instability and some loss just like deflation but in a way government likes as it reduces debt worth.
We'll see wild swings but I dont see cash as performing better year to year then stock of a company with global product sales. Theres zero chance deflation is allowed to occur, it would cause sovereign default as the debt load is too great for example the USA debt would take the whole fiscal budget just in interest payments so policy is not by choice and it doesn't matter who wins in November. The senate outcome is probably more important.


 
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Gold didnt pull back much, I didnt capture any low very well because it wasn't a proper sell. I do think anything that booms will end up possibly halving at some points, gold will sell because its used as cash but also will remain in demand. The basic reasoning being inflation does not represent growth, it will show instability and some loss just like deflation but in a way government likes as it reduces debt worth.
We'll see wild swings but I dont see cash as performing better year to year then stock of a company with global product sales. Theres zero chance deflation is allowed to occur, it would cause sovereign default as the debt load is too great for example the USA debt would take the whole fiscal budget just in interest payments so policy is not by choice and it doesn't matter who wins in November. The senate outcome is probably more important.

Gold is touching $1800 at the moment, i wouldn't bother waiting around for $20/$30 pullbacks if you believe gold is gonna do well over the next 10 years. CB's have literally given the green light that they'll do whatever it takes, paper is becoming trash. Deflationary assets like crypto and precious metals are a slam dunk in my eyes. Silver has a lot of upside as well, its a lot more undervalued than gold.
 
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I’m overweight CAML now after a couple of buys over recent days. Commodities seems to be a good place to be. I was very reassured by the most recent presentation from our COO who essentially said - “Covid - no impact at the moment”. H1 operational update in coming days (tomorrow?) which I expect to be very pleasing.
 
It depends on the function of the crypto itself, some are assets like Bitcoin, some are closer to a commodity like XRP.

The UK government call them cryptoassets..

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/tax-on-cryptoassets/cryptoassets-for-individuals

What would you call them then?
****coins :D
Just kidding, but the majority are worthless really, as an asset or even a commodity. As something to trade to turn a profit, why not. And I'm not including XRP necessarily in the worthless category but probably 90%+ are.
 
Doesn't JP Morgan own like over 50% of all the silvers and thus manipulates the prices to their advantage with shorting & longing depending on their mood ? Gold is fine but I wouldn't touch Silver

Well yea, they got caught manipulating it, but thats why i think its massively underpriced, they've been manipulating the price downwards, and when cash is trash, they will lift that motherf*cker to the moon..
Huge upside...

****coins :D
Just kidding, but the majority are worthless really, as an asset or even a commodity. As something to trade to turn a profit, why not. And I'm not including XRP necessarily in the worthless category

Ha, yea, there is a lot **** out there.
 
Silver has a lot of upside as well, its a lot more undervalued than gold.
I bought 5kg in 2009 for exactly this reason. Still waiting. :-) On the plus side, I have great doorstops and if I was burgled they wouldn't have to bother ransacking the house for something to buy their next snort with. They wouldn't be high for long though.
 
I bought 5kg in 2009 for exactly this reason. Still waiting. :) On the plus side, I have great doorstops and if I was burgled they wouldn't have to bother ransacking the house for something to buy their next snort with. They wouldn't be high for long though.

Nice. CB's have been able to keep the genie in the bottle for an extra decade, but i think its out now. There is no going back..
 
I bought 5kg in 2009 for exactly this reason. Still waiting. :) On the plus side, I have great doorstops and if I was burgled they wouldn't have to bother ransacking the house for something to buy their next snort with. They wouldn't be high for long though.
Problem with physical silver, at least today(maybe not 2009), is the 20% VAT and then the usual costs with handling/storing (if not taking delivery). Need to make 20% profit just to cover the VAT as you won't get that back.
Nice shiny door steps tho :)
 
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20% VAT and then the usual costs with handling/storing (if not taking delivery).
Yes, if I hadn't been in full time work and full on hedging mode at the time I'd never have bought physical... it's a bit like buying a Tesla because you want to invest in the company.

I did own a little physical gold for a while, and I can see why people throughout human history get hypnotised by it... the density and glister is compelling in a way which makes no rational sense. Maybe it's a lizard brain thing? But the first sniff of a decent profit and it was gone, and I'd be no different if I had shares. But the silver hasn't been worth the considerable hassle of selling. If I got covid-19 it might come in handy though, grated into my porridge for its antibacterial qualities. No use for the virus, but the glittery poop might cheer me up. A sound investment by any standards!

Mmm... anyone fancy buying shares in GlitterPoo PLC? My personal post-covid economic rescue plan may be taking shape (depending on the roughage). I daren't search to see if the company name's taken already though. There's bound to be a Lambo driving 20-something on Instagram with this jobby model already. :-D
 
Problem with physical silver, at least today(maybe not 2009), is the 20% VAT and then the usual costs with handling/storing (if not taking delivery). Need to make 20% profit just to cover the VAT as you won't get that back.
Nice shiny door steps tho :)

That's the benefit of coins. The Royal Mint are one of our clients and legal tender is VAT and CGT exempt: www.royalmint.com/invest. No point buying anything else really. I've got a couple of solid gold coins with some providence but nothing too substantial.

I've traded a few old sovereigns and the like in the past, but due to gold prices/interest rates the cost of them at auction is crazy atm. Good time to sell!
 
Nowhere is as busy as expected! Greggs, for me, is a hold for years not days. The problem with this market is that investments are confused with trades. I have not lost a moment's sleep with GRG, but expect the road to be rocky. Get it? Rocky road? It's a cake man! :D
 
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