Assuming 0% IPC gain makes your numbers incredibly conservative. All you're doing is showing how AMD missed a trick by not releasing a 64CU RDNA 1 cardSo a 64 CU 2.3Ghz Big Navi would be about 30% faster than a 2080TI, GA102 would be 20% faster again.
This assuming 0 IPC gain RDNA2 vs RDNA1.

Go from the 50% performance per watt target AMD have spoken about. Assuming they achieve it. That would put a 40 CU, 225W RDNA 2 card about 10% over the 2080 Ti. 40 CUs. 64 CUs would match GA102. Hell, if AMD only manage 35-40% ppw increase then 40 CUs would still be in the ball park of the 2080 Ti.