AMD Navi 23 ‘NVIDIA Killer’ GPU Rumored to Support Hardware Ray Tracing, Coming Next Year

greatash · 6 Oct 2020 at 23:11

With Nvidia doing a sneaky move to place the 3070 a day after the Navi reveal, why don't AMD play them at their own game and do the same?

Move the Navi date to a day or two after the 3070, wouldn't change much except to **** off Jensen. Nvidia is always doing stuff like this.

g67575 · 6 Oct 2020 at 23:22

varkanoid said:
Precisely.

The problem is, Hopper hasn't been planned/confirmed for release in 2021 by Nvidia (unlike RDNA 3, which seems to be estimated for q3-q4 2021).

We might see 5nm Nvidia GPUs earlier than Hopper/next gen architecture, perhaps in 2021. Of course, there's zero chance Nvidia will confirm this at this point

I think a 5nm (uses upto 40% less power than 7nm) refresh makes sense, given the high power consumption of the RTX 3080/3090.

So, if a GPU equivalent to an RTX 3080 were build on 5nm+, it could potentially have a TDP of ~200w (EDIT - actually, this assumes Samsung 8nm fab. process has similar power effiency to 7nm).

Phate · 7 Oct 2020 at 01:02

greatash said:
With Nvidia doing a sneaky move to place the 3070 a day after the Navi reveal, why don't AMD play them at their own game and do the same?

Move the Navi date to a day or two after the 3070, wouldn't change much except to **** off Jensen. Nvidia is always doing stuff like this.

Because Nvidia has the mindshare to basically do what it likes and get away with it. If AMD pulled this there would be internet uproar. AMD wouldn't gain anything really.

EastCoastHandle · 7 Oct 2020 at 01:42

Phate said:
Because Nvidia has the mindshare to basically do what it likes and get away with it. If AMD pulled this there would be internet uproar. AMD wouldn't gain anything really.

not so fast. People are noticing...

And social media influencers, especially on YouTube, continue to use terms like “disaster,” “failure” and “botched” to describe the launch. Despite the headline hyperbole, the criticisms invariably come down to simply a lack of adequate supply. One comment I read claimed that it must have been a paper launch because Nvidia “should” have been able to assure adequate supply. After all, it was argued, Apple does this every year with the iPhone launch.

I thought the comment was unintentionally perceptive. Indeed, Nvidia was not acting like Apple. It's not that Ampere was a paper launch, but that, unlike Apple, Nvidia was inexperienced with dealing with huge global demand for its products.

Besides the lack of adequate supply, there were aspects of the launch to criticize legitimately. Nvidia had claimed “up to 2x RTX 2080 performance” in conventional (non-ray traced) games at 4K resolution. I haven't seen any independent reviews that achieved that. Most saw a 70% improvement.

Why make an exaggerated claim? It smacks of the “fake it 'till you make it” startup mentality. It only undermines Nvidia's credibility and does a disservice to its customers.

Nvidia also claimed a 1.9X performance per watt improvement over Turing in ray traced games (Control). However, the claim seems a little specious, given that Nvidia is comparing an operating point for Ampere (60 FPS at roughly 130W) that would not typically be encountered in practice. Gaming software typically flogs the card to within an inch of its thermally limited life.

Most concerning from a competition standpoint was the lack of electrical efficiency improvement over Turing for conventional gaming. Since AMD has promised a 50% efficiency improvement for RDNA2 (“big Navi”) over RDNA, AMD could charge ahead of Nvidia in efficiency and in conventional gaming performance when RDNA2 graphics cards are launched later this month.

This lack of efficiency improvement seems to be a direct consequence of Nvidia choosing the Samsung “8 nm” process, which is really a slightly improved 10 nm process, for Ampere. Since TSMC already is producing 5 nm products (for Apple), this means the Samsung process already is two generations behind the leading edge and a full generation behind the TSMC 7 nm process that AMD is likely to use for RDNA2.

The problem with 8N is that it's a dead end. If Nvidia had chosen TSMC's 7 nm process, it would have had an almost effortless transition to 6 nm, which makes use of EUV without requiring extensive redesign of the chip. AMD may even use the 6 nm process for RDNA2.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4377358-nvidia-time-to-grow-up

The last part is what I'm hearing is what AMD is already doing. They are going to 6nm and 5nm respectively "effortlessly". And it also looks nvidia will not get regulatory approval for Arm (rumor).

FoxEye · 7 Oct 2020 at 01:55

g67575 said:
The problem is, Hopper hasn't been planned/confirmed for release in 2021 by Nvidia (unlike RDNA 3, which seems to be estimated for q3-q4 2021).

Why does anyone honestly think AMD are going to keep to such a ridiculously aggressive schedule?

Navi 2x will barely be out of the door 21q1, and people honestly believe Navi 3x can come in 21q3?

Same with the CPUs. People honestly think Zen4 can come in 21?

gronf · 7 Oct 2020 at 01:59

^ Yeah. I'd expect refreshes in 2021, especially for Zen3, with 2022 for Zen4 & RDNA3.

AthlonXP1800 · 7 Oct 2020 at 02:01

https://twitter.com/VideoCardz/status/1313613983027466240

Guess flagship Navi 21 XTX 16GB is RTX 3070 Ti 16GB competitor.

AMD Another Massive Disappointment?

Look like AMD will struggle to gain some marketshare and set to lose marketshare to Nvidia and also Intel will launch Xe graphic card to compete Ampere and Navi 2x and take marketshare from AMD in Q2 2021.

g67575 · 7 Oct 2020 at 02:02

Ye of little faith. I'm just interpretting AMD's roadmap. Looks like end of 2021 for 5nm CPUs and GPUs.

Link:
https://images.anandtech.com/doci/15936/Dual_Roadmap_678x452.png

2019 for RDNA v1. 2020 for RDNA 2. 2021 for RDNA 3. It's a logical progression.

For CPUs, Zen+ was released in 2018, Zen 2 released in 2019, Zen 3 should release on 8th October 2020. Zen 4 in 2021 (duh!)

thenewoc · 7 Oct 2020 at 02:28

If they can't muster something more than 3080 level their gonna look rather silly with their perceived naming convention:

6700 > 3070
6800 > 3080
6900 > 3090

Grim5 · 7 Oct 2020 at 02:33

AthlonXP1800 said:
https://twitter.com/VideoCardz/status/1313613983027466240

Guess flagship Navi 21 XTX 16GB is RTX 3070 Ti 16GB competitor.

AMD Another Massive Disappointment?

Look like AMD will struggle to gain some marketshare and set to lose marketshare to Nvidia and also Intel will launch Xe graphic card to compete Ampere and Navi 2x and take marketshare from AMD in Q2 2021.

Comon man, no one should be disappointed- I've been saying for at least 2 weeks now Navi 21 isn't on the same level as the 3080, never mind the 3090 - I'll say it again, Navi 21 is between the 3070 and 3080.

Not only that, but Nvidia already knew all of this for the last 2 months. That's why a 16gb 3070 and 20gb 3080 has been in planning for a while - Nvidia already knew what Navi was doing and how much vram it has

thenewoc · 7 Oct 2020 at 02:41

But surely AMD would up the power draw to squeeze more out to at least get Navi 21 beyond the 3080.

Rroff · 7 Oct 2020 at 02:47

AthlonXP1800 said:
https://twitter.com/VideoCardz/status/1313613983027466240

Guess flagship Navi 21 XTX 16GB is RTX 3070 Ti 16GB competitor.

AMD Another Massive Disappointment?

Look like AMD will struggle to gain some marketshare and set to lose marketshare to Nvidia and also Intel will launch Xe graphic card to compete Ampere and Navi 2x and take marketshare from AMD in Q2 2021.

There are a few posters here who are going to look rather silly if that turns out to be correct.

g67575 · 7 Oct 2020 at 02:53

Rroff said:
There are a few posters here who are going to look rather silly if that turns out to be correct.

Seems about right to me. Lack of perf. info on the 'Navi21 XTX' is a little dubious. At this point I'm losing track of the number of spec predictions... What's wrong with the RTX 3070

thenewoc · 7 Oct 2020 at 02:59

g67575 said:
Seems about right to me. Lack of perf. info on the 'Navi21 XTX' is a little dubious. At this point I'm losing track of the number of spec predictions... What's wrong with the RTX 3070

It's green

EastCoastHandle · 7 Oct 2020 at 03:37

AthlonXP1800 said:
https://twitter.com/VideoCardz/status/1313613983027466240

Guess flagship Navi 21 XTX 16GB is RTX 3070 Ti 16GB competitor.

AMD Another Massive Disappointment?

Look like AMD will struggle to gain some marketshare and set to lose marketshare to Nvidia and also Intel will launch Xe graphic card to compete Ampere and Navi 2x and take marketshare from AMD in Q2 2021.

This makes no sense. Where is the performance results of the 3070 that suggest that the XT is a 3070 competitor? Where is the source that 3070 are in production? Where is the source that tells us when consumers can buy a 3070? All that from AIBs with no insight on the above questions? Let alone if they know the performance of the XT???

LOL

Looks like a troll post. In any case lets wait and see what AMD will bring. If that were true it LS would take a big hit in the stock price of AMD as she promised Navi would be a competitor in the high end.

Poneros · 7 Oct 2020 at 03:43

A 3070 will be slower than 2080 Ti...

You're telling me you really believe RDNA 2 can't even match Turing??? That would be the biggest disaster in Radeon's history!

Rroff · 7 Oct 2020 at 03:46

Poneros said:
A 3070 will be slower than 2080 Ti...

You're telling me you really believe RDNA 2 can't even match Turing??? That would be the biggest disaster in Radeon's history!

3070 most likely slightly faster at some things (especially newer games) and positioned between the 2080S and 2080ti for others (mostly older games).

Soapysage · 7 Oct 2020 at 05:49

Wrinkly said:
They will be able to increase VRAM speed.

Which will draw even more power from the power hungry GDDR6X,

Rroff said:
3070 most likely slightly faster at some things (especially newer games) and positioned between the 2080S and 2080ti for others (mostly older games).

Which is why Navi 21 only matching it is bull, as rogame said in a comment on that Twitter thread, AMD are trolling AIBs with Navi 22, that's the only card they've been given access to since they know as soon as AIBs get information, it'll leak out. Navi 22 is the one that drops in between the 3070 and 3080, Navi 21 is the one that competes well above that.

Sumanji · 7 Oct 2020 at 06:00

Grim5 said:
Comon man, no one should be disappointed- I've been saying for at least 2 weeks now Navi 21 isn't on the same level as the 3080, never mind the 3090 - I'll say it again, Navi 21 is between the 3070 and 3080.

I'm sort of with Grim on this one...

#managingexpectations

Jacky60 · 7 Oct 2020 at 06:02

Stu999 said:
“Better” than a 3080 is pointless for most people since they don’t have high refresh rate 4K monitors.

Well if 16-35 fps on 4K ultra is enough for you or those that you speak for on MSFS2020 then you're absolutely right. Who needs 60fps on AAA games at 4K ultra when we can all turn down a few settings :rolleyes:

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