Delays Continue well in to 2022

[Hedge]

Somethings going to have to change, as otherwise the PC gaming market is going to take a massive hit, as users won't be able to upgrade, and fewer second hand components will be available at reasonable prices for those on a budget. More expensive systems and components mean less money to spend on games.

It's also true of the new consoles. The platforms make most of their money on games - consoles are often sold at a loss - so fewer new consoles sold mean fewer games sold. Given how expensive AAA games are to develop, that could have serious consequences in the long term.

Why do you think fewer consoles are being sold? Sony and Microsoft have sold everything they can produce. PCs probably havent paid for a AAA game since Crysis.

 

[KompuKare]

They lie - the market is flooded by Ryzen 7 5800X that no one buys.

Just stop the production of Ryzen 7 5800X and instead use the wafers for GPU production!

First of all there is no such things as a Ryzen 7 5800X, just wafer going to Zen3 and if all cores are functional they could be 5800X.
Secondly, Zen3 ICD's are 84mm² or so so you get about 650 good dies per wafer. (Cost @$10k is under $16, @$15k it would be around $23.)
Navi 21 is 520mm² so that's under 120 good dies per wafer. (Cost @$10k around $160, or @$15k around $240.)
So even AMD stopped making Zen3 CPUs (potentially they most successful product ever), that wouldn't lead to a plentiful supply of Navi 21 cards.
Their headline of having sold 1 million Zen3 a while back, would only have made 180,000 Navi 21s (potentially a few more as the yield would be for full dies (6900 XT and 6800 XT) and the 6800 non-XT can take some of the defective dies).

 

[Ravenger]

Why do you think fewer consoles are being sold? Sony and Microsoft have sold everything they can produce. PCs probably havent paid for a AAA game since Crysis.

The need to sell many more consoles in order sell enough games to recoup the development costs for AAA games. The amount of new consoles out there is nowhere near enough, and they're unable to produce enough quantity right now, due to shortage in worldwide chip fabrication.

 

[Zairs]

There was a shortage of GPUs before the price of bitcoin/crypto increased again. Yes mining hasn't helped but there's a shortage of lots of things not just GPUs.

 

[silvagti]

First of all there is no such things as a Ryzen 7 5800X, just wafer going to Zen3 and if all cores are functional they could be 5800X.
Secondly, Zen3 ICD's are 84mm² or so so you get about 650 good dies per wafer. (Cost @$10k is under $16, @$15k it would be around $23.)

It does seem weird that there should be an abundance of 5800x CPUs but no stock of the 5600X nor any sign or lower spec SKU's on the horizon. It's hard not to suspect that supply is being manipulated by AMD to push customers towards the more expensive offerings!

But equally supply of many items is contrained and shows no sign of easing in the near future unfortunately. Not looking good for me getting my RTX 3060 at RRP before summer at the earliest I suspect!

 

[Hedge]

It does seem weird that there should be an abundance of 5800x CPUs but no stock of the 5600X nor any sign or lower spec SKU's on the horizon. It's hard not to suspect that supply is being manipulated by AMD to push customers towards the more expensive offerings!

But equally supply of many items is contrained and shows no sign of easing in the near future unfortunately. Not looking good for me getting my RTX 3060 before summer at the earliest I suspect!

Yeah there is no point in selling your cheaper product when yields are so good on your pricier one.

 

[4K8KW10]

First of all there is no such things as a Ryzen 7 5800X, just wafer going to Zen3 and if all cores are functional they could be 5800X.
Secondly, Zen3 ICD's are 84mm² or so so you get about 650 good dies per wafer. (Cost @$10k is under $16, @$15k it would be around $23.)
Navi 21 is 520mm² so that's under 120 good dies per wafer. (Cost @$10k around $160, or @$15k around $240.)
So even AMD stopped making Zen3 CPUs (potentially they most successful product ever), that wouldn't lead to a plentiful supply of Navi 21 cards.
Their headline of having sold 1 million Zen3 a while back, would only have made 180,000 Navi 21s (potentially a few more as the yield would be for full dies (6900 XT and 6800 XT) and the 6800 non-XT can take some of the defective dies).

It doesn't matter.
What matters is the need to keep their market share because if they don't, they will have to close the GPU department because of going to bankruptcy.

 

[silvagti]

Yeah there is no point in selling your cheaper product when yields are so good on your pricier one.

I'm not disagreeing with AMD's busness plans because clearly they have a great product and are looking to make a profit. Just saying that it looks like they've engineered the supply shortage of lower end CPUs intentionally!

 

[MissChief]

I think both Nvidia and AMD are pushing for as much fab capacity as they can get but the automotive industry has most of the foundries booked up for months and they still have a shortage. Combine this with ever more powerful consoles, a chip explosion in cars and SUV’s compared to even five or six years ago and new mobiles having more advanced processors as well I can’t see much changing for months until new Fab capacity comes on stream but that could also be next year or even 2023.

 

[willhub]

Maybe we won't see next gen GPUs until 2024 if they wait until enough capacity to ensure steady stream of GPU's to market and no scalpers and all that