Tories lost the 2019 election among working age adults

cheesyboy said:
It's a huge, huge sample. At that size, the inaccuracy of people misremembering what their vote actually was is substantially higher than any sampling error.

Accept you don't understand statistics and sample sizes, and move on.
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It's 1% of total voter turn out :rolleyes:

We could just as easily say, old people/retired are less busy and more likely to fill in a follow up survey on how they voted.
 
dLockers said:
Educate me :cry:
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Statistics are a funny beast. You pretty much always need fewer in your sample than you might intuitively think.

Good example: the birthday paradox

How many random people do you need in a room before the chance of two or more sharing a birthday is greater than 50%?

You'd probably imagine it to be, perhaps, 183 (half the days in a year). But it's actually only 23!

70 people in a room, and you have a 99.9% confidence that two or more will share a birthday.

"What if you just keep picking people, at random who have different birthdays?" well, that's your 0.01% chance: very unlikely. Same for your polling sample accidentally picking an unrepresentative group.
 
My hood cheesy boy has gone fr
cheesyboy said:
I don't believe they shouldn't have a say.

Old people are clearly different, though. We can see that by how heavily they favour Tory policies against a working population that prefers (clearly, but much more marginally) Labour.

And there is a friction there beyond simply the name in number 10. The policies that win votes from old people, such as the example of supporting rising house prices, act in opposition to what young people need.
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A man who isn't a socialist at 20 has no heart a man who isn't Conservative at 60 has no brain?
 
"Perhaps, accepting that one particular group having so much political clout"


What % population is working age vs % population retired
 
cheesyboy said:
@Greebo earlier in the thread suggested retired people made up 38% of the electorate, iirc. You can probably Google that to check.
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No I said by 2050 they will. Not currently. It used to be only 17% a few decades ago. My point was how much it has changed and how much it now affects elections.

Not saying they shouldnt have a vote, but pointing out that the party who wins government has to win the old vote.
 
Greebo said:
No I said by 2050 they will. Not currently. It used to be only 17% a few decades ago. My point was how much it has changed and how much it now affects elections.

Not saying they shouldnt have a vote, but pointing out that the party who wins government has to win the old vote.
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Apologies, was going on memory.

So a smaller than 38% demographic 'tail' is wagging the electorate dog.
 
cheesyboy said:
I guess some difference will be down to that Guardian figure being % of the population (including children), whereas @Greebo was using % of electorate (so excluding kids)
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correct!

Not the article i got it from but this one says 37.1% of voters over 65s by 2050 and 46.2% of voters as over 55.

https://blogs.bath.ac.uk/iprblog/2019/05/21/the-rise-of-the-grey-vote/

Using Office for National Statistics (ONS) population estimates for the UK by age, we can see the scale of the change between 1971 and 2017, and projections for the period between 2017 and 2050 (Figure 1). The proportion of the adult population over 65 has increased from 18.5% in 1971 to 23.2% in 2017. Meanwhile, the proportion of those over 55 has increased from 34.9% to 38%. The dotted lines in Figure 1 show these proportions projected up to 2050. Over 55s are projected to constitute 46.2% of the population in 2050, and over 65s, 37.1%. These long-term projections show that even once the baby boomer generation has mostly passed away, increased life expectancy will make the UK a permanently older society.
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full stats here

https://www.parliament.uk/business/...ney-in-public-services/the-ageing-population/

10 million people in the UK are over 65 years old. The latest projections are for 5½ million more elderly people in 20 years time and the number will have nearly doubled to around 19 million by 2050.

Within this total, the number of very old people grows even faster. There are currently three million people aged more than 80 years and this is projected to almost double by 2030 and reach eight million by 2050. While one-in-six of the UK population is currently aged 65 and over, by 2050 one in-four will be
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And since 85% of them vote vs 40% of younger voters, its them who will decide future governments for the next 30 years. Compare to when over 65s was only 18.5% in 1971. Their vote didnt carry as much weight. 80% of over 55s vote as well in recent elections so basically unless the young can be persuaded to engage and vote by 2050 60% tom 70% of all votes cast will be by the over 55s.

Trying to attract the younger voter will not win you a GE as Corbyn found out.
 
Disenfranchised young voters moaning that their votes are outweighed by retired people when if they just voted and voted the same way they could win (or remain even…), not least as many old people still vote labour. They are never likely to do either of course but still, we can go to social media and forums and moan how it’s so unfair cuz houses, none representative and stuff.

Though I simplify the complex for affect, is it any wonder that swathes of old people (over 65) think kids’ (that’s up to 30 incase you’re unclear) are wasters and moan far too much and should get on with it if it’s that important to them.

To be clear I did the same at 25, I could not give a stuff as “it doesn’t matter how I vote they are all the same” and “retirement is decades away why should I be worried now cuz beer n chicks”

Sound familiar?
 
Tefal said:
My hood cheesy boy has gone fr



A man who isn't a socialist at 20 has no heart a man who isn't Conservative at 60 has no brain?
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A man who isn’t conservative at 60 isn’t a rich selfish **** or a gullible fool - fixed that for you.
 
Housey said:
Disenfranchised young voters moaning that their votes are outweighed by retired people when if they just voted and voted the same way they could win (or remain even…), not least as many old people still vote labour. They are never likely to do either of course but still, we can go to social media and forums and moan how it’s so unfair cuz houses, none representative and stuff.

Though I simplify the complex for affect, is it any wonder that swathes of old people (over 65) think kids’ (that’s up to 30 incase you’re unclear) are wasters and moan far too much and should get on with it if it’s that important to them.

To be clear I did the same at 25, I could not give a stuff as “it doesn’t matter how I vote they are all the same” and “retirement is decades away why should I be worried now cuz beer n chicks”

Sound familiar?
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I’ve voted in every general election I have been able to since I turned 18 and only in the last decade has my vote been likely to have any impact as I live in a marginal seat that assuming it stays the same could be a three way fight at the next election. Before that all my votes were cast in safe seats so I might as well not have bothered including one I drove 150 miles for!

Our electoral system is broken and totally unrepresentative the idea that the Brexit party could take such a massive share of the popular vote and not gain a single seat is ridiculous and I can’t stand them. People need to see the vote they cast transformed into representation of the view they supported. We need to move on from the Labour v’s conservative conversation and talk about representative politics parties working together, compromising etc etc just never going to happen in my lifetime!
 
a1ex2001 said:
I’ve voted in every general election I have been able to since I turned 18 and only in the last decade has my vote been likely to have any impact as I live in a marginal seat that assuming it stays the same could be a three way fight at the next election. Before that all my votes were cast in safe seats so I might as well not have bothered including one I drove 150 miles for!

Our electoral system is broken and totally unrepresentative the idea that the Brexit party could take such a massive share of the popular vote and not gain a single seat is ridiculous and I can’t stand them. People need to see the vote they cast transformed into representation of the view they supported. We need to move on from the Labour v’s conservative conversation and talk about representative politics parties working together, compromising etc etc just never going to happen in my lifetime!
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Has to start somewhere, people make our world and outside natural stuff are the sole arbiters of the world we live in. It's never going to happen as its real easy to throw stones from the tall grass in life so most of us chose that route because, well speaking frankly, we can't be arsed. That my friend is life and within life there really is a layer cake.

It's why I have little time for pondering our navel waiting for 'people' to change. Needs a change agent or two, ideally from the next generation as all the things they moan about THEY are best placed to fix, but again they won't.

Where are my stones...
 
Housey said:
Has to start somewhere, people make our world and outside natural stuff are the sole arbiters of the world we live in. It's never going to happen as its real easy to throw stones from the tall grass in life so most of us chose that route because, well speaking frankly, we can't be arsed. That my friend is life and within life there really is a layer cake.

It's why I have little time for pondering our navel waiting for 'people' to change. Needs a change agent or two, ideally from the next generation as all the things they moan about THEY are best placed to fix, but again they won't.

Where are my stones...
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Are you talkin’ about a revolution? How’m I gunna start a revolution from my bed?

Would be great to see people young and old take to the streets and demand change and You are right most of us never will which is a shame.
 
Housey said:
Disenfranchised young voters moaning that their votes are outweighed by retired people when if they just voted and voted the same way they could win (or remain even…), not least as many old people still vote labour. They are never likely to do either of course but still, we can go to social media and forums and moan how it’s so unfair cuz houses, none representative and stuff.

Though I simplify the complex for affect, is it any wonder that swathes of old people (over 65) think kids’ (that’s up to 30 incase you’re unclear) are wasters and moan far too much and should get on with it if it’s that important to them.

To be clear I did the same at 25, I could not give a stuff as “it doesn’t matter how I vote they are all the same” and “retirement is decades away why should I be worried now cuz beer n chicks”

Sound familiar?
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Thing is the older vote only used to 17%. Go back to the 50s and it was only 10% of the voters. By 2050 it will be 38%. Makes a distract difference. Yes it would help if the young got involved and voted. If they turned out to vote at 85% like the elderly then they could make changes even now. As time goes by that will become less acheivable.

Only 24% of old people vote Labour vs 63% Tory. Plus the issue isnt so much whether its Labour or Tory, its all going to be concentrated on which party offers whatever older people want. Clearly all the under 65 will never vote all for the other party, whoever that may be.

When you see the figures that

65% of Department for Work and Pensions benefit expenditure goes to those over working age, equivalent to £100 billion in 2010/11 or one seventh of public expenditure. Continuing to provide state benefits and pensions at today’s average would mean additional spending of £10 billion a year for every additional one million people over working age. There will be 9m more retired by 2050 so an extra £90 billion per year needed and will become almost one third of public expenditure. To put this in perspective its almost spending the same as HS2 extra every year

1 in 6 of all people(including kids) are currently over 65, by 2050 it will be 1 in 4

The average NHS cost of a retired household is double what the under 65 household costs so as the population moves towards more people being older, the extra annual NHS spend will be 13% more than it is now just to account for the elderly.

The Department of Health estimates that the average cost of providing hospital and community health services for a person aged 85 years or more is around three times greater than for a person aged 65 to 74 years. As more and more people move into this age bracket, the total cost will continue to rise.

Centenarians will be the fastest growing age group for the next 40 years.
 
a1ex2001 said:
Are you talkin’ about a revolution? How’m I gunna start a revolution from my bed?

Would be great to see people young and old take to the streets and demand change and You are right most of us never will which is a shame.
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Most people prefer the status quo as well. Being vocal means little sadly....and to some extent thankfully too if you read social media.
 
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