Tories lost the 2019 election among working age adults

[Quartz]

I find it petty people wont vote labour because of the 1970s.

Those of us who can remember that far back can remember the catastrophe that was Michael Foot and were terrified at how Jeremy Corbyn reminded us of him. You may think the Tories are bad, but they're nowhere near as bad as Labour would have been.

One of the big problems of the Left is that they view the not-Left - the Tories in our case - as evil. Sorry but they're not. Nor are any of the main parties. I'll grant you the BNP and Sinn Fein.

 

[cheesyboy]

I'm not sure you're in a position to complain about this behaviour given that I called you out for the same thing literally the post before (and you did the same thing in your response to that post as well).

Don't complain about selective quoting when you keep doing it, it's not exactly a mark of good faith debating.

I wasn't calling out selectively quoting. I just thought it was a weird jumping off point given the context of what he'd quoted.

I'm not in the habit of responding to deliberate sidetracks, so I just tend to ignore them. I posted the thread and generally try not to steer it off course in my follow ups.

 

[Housey]

I wasn't calling out selectively quoting. I just thought it was a weird jumping off point given the context of what he'd quoted.

I'm not in the habit of responding to deliberate sidetracks, so I just tend to ignore them. I posted the thread and generally try not to steer it off course in my follow ups.

Wow

 

[cheesyboy]

I’m clearly asking and I can not be any more unambiguous “what do you think we should do to address your concern at the start of this thread…to be 100% clear?”

I have no solution to offer for the issue of retired people steering UK politics over the next couple of decades. But I didn't start the thread to look for a solution either.

I was simply after a discussion of whether people considered such a split in votes, and such a clear result in favour of retired voters over working voters, to be A Bad Thing.

Perhaps, accepting that one particular group having so much political clout is potentially bad, the discussion could move on to what safeguards we could put in place to ensure the country's longer term future, and the futures of its younger citizens, can be protected.

Or we could discuss why older people don't empathise with young people enough to reject policies that harm them and their futures. And there would be room in that discussion for people to knock that empathy point on the head and reiterate how awful they think young people are.

But what's mostly occurred is that Tory voters have charged in to defend WHY what happened, happened, instead of really giving much thought to the philosophical problem it throws up.

 

[Housey]

But your argument puts no emphasis on resolution. As I’ve said more than once, it is self interest, yours or a group of society you feel you represent.

You believe old people are different so don’t believe they should have a say or less of a say than working people else this thread is pointless. Living longer, more voting and any other metric does not change the fact there is a section of society that differs in opinion to you and you think they should be silenced or have less of a say….though want about the ones who vote like you at 85? They OK?

You can spend pages contemplating but let’s cut to the chase. It isn’t just me calling you on this so don’t make it about me trying to derail you it makes you sound oblivious. You think old people are doing bad by the young and many people disagree with that premise.

I’m a working person and have been for 35 years and I do not support your POV at all. It’s so simplistic and flawed.

 

[Nitefly]

Probably already posted but the proportional representation outcome of the 2019 election would have been interesting:

https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk...have-looked-with-proportional-representation/

As Brexit showed though, a hung Parliament is a very slow one. Do the theoretical benefits of a more balanced government outweigh the quick action of a single dominant party? Not sure.

I do like the idea of a more cooperative proportional representation system and less ridiculous pantomime.

 

[Housey]

Probably already posted but the proportional representation outcome of the 2019 election would have been interesting:

https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk...have-looked-with-proportional-representation/

As Brexit showed though, a hung Parliament is a very slow one. Do the theoretical benefits of a more balanced government outweigh the quick action of a single dominant party? Not sure.

I do like the idea of a more cooperative proportional representation system and less ridiculous pantomime.

Now that’s an interesting debate

 

[cheesyboy]

You believe old people are different so don’t believe they should have a say else this thread is pointless. Living longer, more voting and any other metric does not change the fact there is a section of society that differs in opinion to you and you think they should be silenced or have less of a say.

I don't believe they shouldn't have a say.

Old people are clearly different, though. We can see that by how heavily they favour Tory policies against a working population that prefers (clearly, but much more marginally) Labour.

And there is a friction there beyond simply the name in number 10. The policies that win votes from old people, such as the example of supporting rising house prices, act in opposition to what young people need.

 

[Quartz]

I do like the idea of a more cooperative proportional representation system and less ridiculous pantomime.

PR is an absolute disaster for a primary legislative chamber. You weaken or lose the link between the representative and the constituent and promote loyalty to party over loyalty to constituency. I do think we should ditch FPTP but we should move to Approval Voting.

Old people are clearly different, though. We can see that by how heavily they favour Tory policies against a working population that prefers (clearly, but much more marginally) Labour.

That's for 2019; what about other years? Say, for example, 1997 and 2001?

 

[Housey]

I don't believe they shouldn't have a say.

Old people are clearly different, though. We can see that by how heavily they favour Tory policies against a working population that prefers (clearly, but much more marginally) Labour.

And there is a friction there beyond simply the name in number 10. The policies that win votes from old people, such as the example of supporting rising house prices, act in opposition to what young people need.

It’s not all about young people and certainly not a world where labour is the saviour. As I have said young people need to step up and have their say. Start by fixing that perennial…


And how do you define a working population? There are very few labour voters in my working population.

 

[cheesyboy]

That's for 2019; what about other years? Say, for example, 1997 and 2001?

I'm not sure we'd learn much from results two decades ago regarding the current landscape, though I'd be interested what the split was.

2017 was very similar to 2019, though, in the huge split between the retired and working age people:

 

[Deleted User 298457]

Sample size of 52k? Lols

 

[Hades]

I'm not sure we'd learn much from results two decades ago regarding the current landscape, though I'd be interested what the split was.

2017 was very similar to 2019, though, in the huge split between the retired and working age people:

Does that survey take into account the Shy Tory Factor? People voting Conservative are often less likely to releal it in a survey. Given that the above graph shows only a small difference between Conservative and Labour voting in the working age population, this factor could well push it in the other direction.

That would result in a very close split and perhaps even a slight advantage to Conservative voters in the working population. In other words the above graph is not likely to be wholly accurate and the split may not be between retired -vs- working voters, but between retired and working -vs- non-working voters, which would put a completely different slant on this whole thread.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_factor

 

[cheesyboy]

Sample size of 52k? Lols

Tell me you know nothing about polling and sample sizes without telling me you know nothing about polling and sample sizes

52k is an enormous sample!

Have a look at standard election polling sample sizes for 2017:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election

Almost none are more than 2.5k

 

[200sols]

Sample size of 52k? Lols

That is a massive sample. Most are like 2k and very accurate.

 

[cheesyboy]

Does that survey take into account the Shy Tory Factor? People voting Conservative are often less likely to releal it in a survey. Given that the above graph shows only a small difference between Conservative and Labour voting in the working age population, this factor could well push it in the other direction.

That would result in a very close split and perhaps even a slight advantage to Conservative voters in the working population. In other words the above graph is not likely to be wholly accurate and the split may not be between retired -vs- working voters, but between retired and working -vs- non-working voters, which would put a completely different slant on this whole thread.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_factor

I don't think 'shy tories' applies to the 2017 election, with Labour being the ones to massively outperform polling, and the Tories being spot on with projections.

 

[Deleted User 298457]

Tell me you know nothing about polling and sample sizes without telling me you know nothing about polling and sample sizes

52k is an enormous sample!

Have a look at standard election polling sample sizes for 2017:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election

Almost none are more than 2.5k

That is a massive sample. Most are like 2k and very accurate.

It represents just over 1% of total voter turn out. So it may be 'good' in the context of opinion polls (hard enough to get people to vote anyway) but it isn't good on any other metric. It is basically raw data at this stage.

 

[MikeTimbers]

I don't believe they shouldn't have a say.

Old people are clearly different, though. We can see that by how heavily they favour Tory policies against a working population that prefers (clearly, but much more marginally) Labour.

And there is a friction there beyond simply the name in number 10. The policies that win votes from old people, such as the example of supporting rising house prices, act in opposition to what young people need.

Young people are clearly different, though. We can see that by how heavily they favour Labour policies against the retired population that prefers (clearly) Conservative.

And there is a friction there beyond simply the name in number 10. The policies that win votes from young people, such as the example of reducing house prices, act in opposition to what older people need.


Can you (@cheesyboy ) not see that your argument is basically that it's unfair that enough people disagree with your politics that you didn't win? Why should the working population's voice be any louder than any other demographic? Why not the primary school population? Does someone one year from retirement have less voice? Does someone on their first day of work have more of a voice?

Posing a question about whether it is a Good or Bad Thing is one thing, but an opinion on what you think should happen would be more interesting. Else, the only response is "so what?"

 

[cheesyboy]

Young people are clearly different, though. We can see that by how heavily they favour Labour policies against the retired population that prefers (clearly) Conservative.

And there is a friction there beyond simply the name in number 10. The policies that win votes from young people, such as the example of reducing house prices, act in opposition to what older people need.

You're merely agreeing with me here! I would contest that OAPs don't 'need' rising house prices in the same way that young people need affordable housing, but I'm otherwise fine with the reversed statement.

OAPs are fast becoming the wealthiest demographic (more than 1 in 5 retired households are worth £1m+), and they are half as likely to live in poverty as working age people (one third as likely as children). They have needs, and shouldn't be ignored, but it's a problem if their needs are prioritised over poorer groups. And that's clearly a risk when our two main parties are desperate to court the retired vote.

 

[cheesyboy]

It represents just over 1% of total voter turn out. So it may be 'good' in the context of opinion polls (hard enough to get people to vote anyway) but it isn't good on any other metric. It is basically raw data at this stage.

It's a huge, huge sample. At that size, the inaccuracy of people misremembering what their vote actually was is substantially higher than any sampling error.

Accept you don't understand statistics and sample sizes, and move on.