Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Amnesia said:
But this is what the peace talks are about, Zelensky has agreed to some ie no NATO membership but does not want to concede any further land.
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No, Zelensky was a lot more ambiguous than that. He said 'NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine.' This carefully tosses the ball back into NATO's court. It's not the same as 'I've agreed to Putin's demand that Ukraine will not seek NATO membership.'

People keep saying Russia cannot be trusted but without peace talks this continues for who knows how long.
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Is that the logic we should have used during the Battle of Britain? 'Just surrender to Germany, otherwise who knows how long this will last?'
 
Amnesia said:
Ok fair enough you got me on the surrender, early in the invasion I didn't expect Ukraine to be able to put up a fight the way they did but that's because I did not expect them to get as much support(military & other) as they have from across the world, it changed the war.

As it stands I still say concessions to end it.
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Have you considered the concession that Russia withdraw and get nothing?
 
dLockers said:
Have you considered the concession that Russia withdraw and get nothing?
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Well in an ideal world he wouldn't have invaded and he would just leave the Ukrainians alone and let them live in peace since they want nothing to do with him.
But he is there and clearly isn't leaving when someone says please.
 
Amnesia said:
Well in an ideal world he wouldn't have invaded and he would just leave the Ukrainians alone and let them live in peace since they want nothing to do with him.
But he is there and clearly isn't leaving when someone says please.
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Right, but he has now lost thousands of troops and been deleted from the global economy. He is losing on almost all objective measures. Once he "gains" Ukraine, if he ever does, he has billions of rebuilding to do - which he can't afford. Because he has been deleted from the global economy.
 
dLockers said:
Have you considered the concession that Russia withdraw and get nothing?
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Which Russian cities are in rubble? The stakes here are very uneven. Ukraine will most likely need to concede in order to get Russia to leave. They need to make concessions that don't harm their longer term interests and, in particular, ensure they can make protective deals that will stop Russia blundering back in ten years down the line but the costs for Ukraine of not conceding at all are likely to be higher than the costs of conceding. Realistically, unless some other countries join the war on their side, the best military outcome is that they bog the Russian army down for long enough that Putin decides to cut his losses and withdraw to the 2014 borders leaving a devastated Ukraine behind.
 
Past 10hrs:

*US Trade Representative Tai Is to Hold a Talk with UK’s Trade Sec. Trevelyan on March 22nd.
*US Treasury Secretary Yellen Will Meet with CEOs on March 21st to Discuss Russia’s Response.
*Australia’s Trade Minister Tehan: Looking at Our Past Experiences Shows Economic Coercion by China Has Not Worked.
*Russia’s Top Carmaker Avtovaz Says It Partially Halts Production on March 21–25 Due to Shortage of Electronic Parts
*UK Govt Defence Intelligence Says Bulk of Russian Forces Remain More than 25 Kilometres from Centre of Kyiv City
*UK Govt Defence Intelligence Says Russian Forces Advancing from Direction of Hostomel to North-West Have Been Repulsed by Ukrainian Resistance
*Russia Ministry of Defence Says Russian Paratroopers Drive Nationalist Battalions Out of Kyiv Suburbs
*Gazprom: Monday Gas Transit via Ukraine at 104.7MCM/DAY.
*Chinese Foreign Ministry: China Will Continue Its Usual Trade Relations with Russia
*China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi Confirms China’s Envoy Met with a Russian Military Official.

Past 5hrs:

*Russian Defence Ministry: Russia Hit a Military Facility in Ukrainian’s Rivne Region with Cruise Missiles – IFAX

*Ukraine’s Deputy PM Says on Russian Ultimatum to Surrender in Mariupol: Of Course We Did Not Accept These Proposals
*Danish Foreign Minister: Denmark Would Support Blocking EU Sea Ports to Russia
*Italy’s PM Draghi Is to Call with President Biden, President Macron, Chancellor Scholz, and Prime Minister Johnson, Ahead of NATO, G7, and European Council Meetings.
*ECB’s President Lagarde: Energy, Bottlenecks and Food Are Pushing Short-Term Inflation.
*ECB’s President Lagarde: The War in Ukraine Will Have Consequences for EU Growth.
*ECB’s President Lagarde: Geography Makes Europe More Exposed to the War than the US.
*ECB’s President Lagarde: Fiscal Policy Must Provide Support During the War; Monetary Policy Can’t Do Everything.
*EU Set To Line Up With Biden To Warn China Against Helping Putin
*EU’s Borrell: Russia Is Guilty of Massive War Crimes
*EU’s Borrell: We Are Ready to Talk About Energy Sanctions
*Ireland Foreign Minister: Energy Sanctions Would Be Appropriate
*Russia’s Oil and Gas Condensate Production Stood at 11.11 m/Bpd Between March 1–20 – 2 Sources
*Israel’s Bennett Says Despite Some Progress in Efforts to End Ukraine-Russia Conflict, Big Gaps Remain
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ith-biden-to-warn-china-against-helping-putin

Past 3hrs:

*Kremlin: The Degree of Progress in Peace Talks with Ukraine Is Not As Big As It Should Be
*Kremlin: There Is Still No Basis for Possible Putin-Zelenskiy Meeting, Significant Progress Needs to Be Made First
*Kremlin: The US Would Lose Nothing in the Event of an Oil Embargo, Europe Would Be Hit Hard.
*Kremlin: An Oil Embargo Would Disrupt Europe’s Energy Balance.
*Kremlin: Countries with Influence in Kyiv Should Use It to Make Ukraine More Cooperative in Peace Talks.
*Kremlin: Claims That Russia Is Not Allowing Ukrainian Civilians to Evacuate via Humanitarian Corridors Are Lies.
*Kremlin: Russia Is Ready to Work Faster on the Negotiations than the Ukrainian Side.
*Kremlin: There Is Still No Basis for a Possible Putin-Zelenskiy Meeting; Significant Progress Must Be Made First.
*Leader of Pro-Russian Donetsk Separatists: It Will Take No Less than 1 Week to Capture Mariupol – IFAX

*Russia Plans to Adjust Taxation of Its Energy Sector Given That Russian Oil Trades with Discount to Benchmarks – TASS Quotes Deputy PM Novak
*Russia’s Deputy PM Novak: U.S. and Britain’s Refusal to Buy Russian Oil Has Had Little Effect on Russia – IFAX
*Russia’s Deputy PM Novak: Russia Resolving Logistical Issues Regarding Oil Shipments Abroad – IFAX
*Russia’s Deputy PM Novak: Russia’s Oil and Gas Production Is Being Carried Out in Full – RIA

*Mayor of Ukrainian Capital Kyiv Announces Curfew from 2000 on Monday to 0700 Local Time on March 23

Past 1hr 30mins:

*German Govt Spokesperson: Government Is Determined to Deliver More Arms to Ukraine, One Way Is via Placing Orders at Defence Firms
*German Govt Spokesperson: Government Maintains Stance That Germany Cannot Do Without Oil Imports from Russia

*Russia, Kazakhstan Have Agreed to Set Up Working Group to Boost Oil Transit to China – IFX Cites Novak
*Gazprom of Russia Has Not Reserved Gas Transit Capacity for Exports via the Yamal-Europe Pipeline for April.
*Russia’s Deputy PM Novak: It Is Impossible for Europe to Refuse Russian Gas Currently – TASS
*Russia’s Deputy PM Novak: Russia Will Strive to Keep Up Its Oil Exports Volumes – TASS
*Russia’s Deputy PM Novak: Russia Is Already Looking for Ways to Diversify Its Oil Supplies – RIA.
*Russia’s Deputy PM Novak: Discount on Russian Oil Will Be Compensated by Rising Prices – IFAX
*Russia’s Deputy PM Novak: The Country Will Work Hard to Maintain Its Oil Export Volumes – TASS.

*Saudi Arabia: Absolves Itself of Any Responsibility of Shortage of Oil Supply in Light of Recent Attacks by Houthis – State News Agency
*Saudi Arabia: Houthi Attacks Will Ultimately Affect Oil Production

*UK's Prime Minister Johnson Spokesman: The PM and Finance Minister Fully Agreed on the Importance of Diversifying Energy Sources.
*UK’s Prime Minister Johnson Spokesman: It’s Appropriate to Take Our Time with the New Energy Plan.
*White House Holds Briefing on Russia-Ukraine Conflict Monday for Energy, Financial Services, Food, Manufacturing Executives -White House Official
*White House Official: Pattern Energy, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Visa, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Cargill, Land O’Lakes, and US Steel Are Among the Corporations Represented.

*Ukraine Infrastructure Ministry: Ports of Mariupol, Berdiansk, Skadovsk and Kherson Are Temporarily Closed
 
dowie said:
Saw some footage yesterday where they had a sound system set up in the street and were taunting the Russian troops with the Bayraktar song.

edit - just found it again :D
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You couldn't have made a better psychological tune. The music is simple - the simple notes carry on any outdoor PA easily, and the chorus has just one word that people need to remember and yell out and every Russian soldier knows what a drone and what can easily do.
 
Mr Jack said:
Which Russian cities are in rubble? The stakes here are very uneven. Ukraine will most likely need to concede in order to get Russia to leave. They need to make concessions that don't harm their longer term interests and, in particular, ensure they can make protective deals that will stop Russia blundering back in ten years down the line but the costs for Ukraine of not conceding at all are likely to be higher than the costs of conceding. Realistically, unless some other countries join the war on their side, the best military outcome is that they bog the Russian army down for long enough that Putin decides to cut his losses and withdraw to the 2014 borders leaving a devastated Ukraine behind.
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They have been hurt much worse than bombs and rubble. The long-term forecast for her people are in tatters.
 
Mr Jack said:
Interesting thread on global grain supplies, looks like India is going to come through for the world:


If this pans out, it'll make a massive difference.
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So despite my earlier comment about developing countries who back or ignore Russia not having though of what this war does to global food prices - it seems India thinks they can benefit by taking Ukraine's share of some of those export markets. So possibly some major cynicism at play there too.
 
Russia's claimed desire to speed up talks is interesting. They seem to have no concern for the humanitary problems. Why would they be in a hurry?

Either they are lying about their desire to speed up peace talks, or they feel the clock is ticking on them. Could be that their military is under more strain than they are willing to admit and/or the economic sanctions are having more of an effect than they are letting on. (Could be a bit of both)
 
0007 said:
*Russia, Kazakhstan Have Agreed to Set Up Working Group to Boost Oil Transit to China – IFX Cites Novak
*Russia’s Deputy PM Novak: Russia Will Strive to Keep Up Its Oil Exports Volumes – TASS
*Russia’s Deputy PM Novak: Russia Is Already Looking for Ways to Diversify Its Oil Supplies – RIA.
*Russia’s Deputy PM Novak: Discount on Russian Oil Will Be Compensated by Rising Prices – IFAX
*Russia’s Deputy PM Novak: The Country Will Work Hard to Maintain Its Oil Export Volumes – TASS.

*Saudi Arabia: Absolves Itself of Any Responsibility of Shortage of Oil Supply in Light of Recent Attacks by Houthis – State News Agency
*Saudi Arabia: Houthi Attacks Will Ultimately Affect Oil Production
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Lol.. I thought the Saudi's loved Putin recently.. however you could be forgiven in thinking that Putin has had a hand in using Houthis to reduce competition in the oil market.. affected Saudi production pushes up prices predicted by Novak..
 
NickK said:
India should make tidy profit vs the now non-existing Russian wheat export. I hope they don't cut internal food aid internally to make a bigger buck.
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Given past famines in India, I assume some of their stockpile is to ensure food supply stability within India. Countries will have a difficult balancing act on the short/ long term game here.

Another sign food supply is likely to become an interesting issue as 2022 goes on.

Even with a quick Russian loss and withdrawal, we're likely to see major issues . Not good at all.
 
Twinz said:
Russia's claimed desire to speed up talks is interesting. They seem to have no concern for the humanitary problems. Why would they be in a hurry?

Either they are lying about their desire to speed up peace talks, or they feel the clock is ticking on them. Could be that their military is under more strain than they are willing to admit and/or the economic sanctions are having more of an effect than they are letting on. (Could be a bit of both)
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Or small minor abyss caused by Russia's actions that reflect on China?
 
dLockers said:
They have been hurt much worse than bombs and rubble. The long-term forecast for her people are in tatters.
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Indeed, but the key words here are "long-term". The prospects for Russia aren't changing much week by week, whereas Ukrainians are dying and having their property and infrastructure annihilated. One of these things is not like the other. Additionally, most of that harm to Russia is now baked in, Russia will face heavy sanctions for at least as long as Putin remains the leader: whereas things for Ukraine will start improving the moment the Russians leave, for Russia they will continue getting worse.
 
andybird123 said:
Reports seem to be coming that Ukraine are on the verge of taking back Kherson.
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Saw a video the other day of Russian Mi-28’s and Mi-17’s with their rotor blades removed being towed through the streets of Kherson away from the airport. I thought at first that it was those madcap Ukrainian farmers upto their Shenanigans again in their tractors, but was surprised to see it was actually Russian trucks towing them away from the airport. Apparently they were damaged by Ukrainian artillery that had fragged them on the airfield, which I guess shows that they’ve been able to push the Russians back enough that they can hit their air support, on the ground with their guns.
 
Sankari said:
No, Zelensky was a lot more ambiguous than that. He said 'NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine.' This carefully tosses the ball back into NATO's court. It's not the same as 'I've agreed to Putin's demand that Ukraine will not seek NATO membership.'
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I was referring to recent talks of as a few days ago.

BBC said:
The Russian demands fall into two categories.

The first four demands are, according to Mr Kalin, not too difficult for Ukraine to meet.

Chief among them is an acceptance by Ukraine that it should be neutral and should not apply to join Nato. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has already conceded this.
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NickK said:
Given the number of lost/amutated limbs: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60814913

The cost of limbs being in the region of £25K for example: 4449759, an iPulse hand replacement is £25K.

The sale of oligarch assets could go towards funding not only the rebuilding but also the rehabilitation and replacement limbs. A $500M oligarch yacht could lay for 20,000 maclaren I-pulse limbs for example.
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Whose going to have the money to buy and run a boat like that, that isn't worried about the second it heads into international waters it will have spetsnaz onboard and forcing you into a life boat at gunpoint?
 
*UK Ministry of Defence: The Russian Defence Attaché Has Been Summoned for the Second Time in Relation to the Unprovoked Invasion of Ukraine.
*Analyst APK-Inform Cuts Ukraine 2021/22 Wheat Export Forecast to 18.3 Mln T from Previous Outlook of 22.5 Mln T Due to Russian Invasion
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1505896697569976324

*Saudi Aramco CEO: Houthi Attacks Might Have an Impact on Future Supply.
*Saudi Aramco CEO: The Houthi Attack on Oil Infrastructure Are at a Time When the Market Is Tight Is a Significant Concern for the Globe
*Saudi Aramco CEO: We Continue to Be Reliable Suppliers
 
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*The US Senate Is to Take Up the Russia Trade Bill As Early As This Week – Aide
*The UK Is Preparing to Nationalise Gazprom’s M&T Retail Unit for a Limited Time.
*UK’s Prime Minister Johnson Tells the Nuclear Industry Meeting That Britain Needs to Move Back Towards at Least 25% of Energy Needs from Nuclear – Aide
*Russian Fighter-Bomber Entered the Airspace of the Republic of Poland Today – Local Journalist
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/br...azprom-retail-unit-bloomberg-news-2022-03-21/
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1505899309526622208

*Russian Court Labels Meta Platforms “Extremist” Organization – TASS
*Russian Court Decision Bans Facebook and Instagram in Russia – TASS
https://twitter.com/FGoria/status/1505904378246479872
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1505905244684931083

*Oil Futures Extend Gains, Brent Crude Up 5%
*Kamala Harris’s National Security Adviser Nancy McEldowney Steps Down
*Harris Appoints Philip Gordon as Her National Security Adviser
*Saudi & Kuwait Have Signed an Agreement to Develop the Al-Durra Oil Field.
 
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