It has been interesting to see how war reporting has changed even in my own lifetime.
In 1982 I was amazed to come home from school and put the 6pm News on to see the latest reports from the Falklands.
During the first and second Iraq wars I was amazed to hear reports of cruise missiles whizzing past reporters windows on 24 hour news.
Now I don't bother watching the news. Its out of date and I get more up to date information from places like here and other online sources. Reports don't seem to be from reporters now, but drone footage and bodycam footage as the fights unfold.
It has been interesting to see how war reporting has changed even in my own lifetime.
In 1982 I was amazed to come home from school and put the 6pm News on to see the latest reports from the Falklands.
During the first and second Iraq wars I was amazed to hear reports of cruise missiles whizzing past reporters windows on 24 hour news.
Now I don't bother watching the news. Its out of date and I get more up to date information from places like here and other online sources. Reports don't seem to be from reporters now, but drone footage and bodycam footage as the fights unfold.
Yeah news companies still have their place. It's nice to get news from twitter/reddit and the like but you always have to be aware that a lot of it is probably nonsense.
He tried his big gamble, left himself a range of options etc.. then got boxed in/experienced more resistance than expected so has narrowed it down to focusing on some smaller objectives.
He'll still want to grab a piece of Ukraine and claim a "victory" for the domestic audience.
It doesn't matter how this ends. It doesn't matter how tightly Russia control the narrative after it ends, eventually the average Russian on the street will see what their country has done to the cities and people of Ukraine.
Yup exactly, on state TV there was some bloke explaining to the public the different ways they might look to take a chunk out of Ukraine, essentially as long as Putin is able to take a chunk of the country he'll call it a win and claim the special military operation succeeded.
Ideally, he'd probably like both a big chunk of the east and all of the south, extending all the way to taking Odesa and linking up with Transnistria but various options short of that could still be claimed as "wins" domestically.
On the other hand Zelensky has played it well, the public in the western world is mostly fully behind him, western leaders will find it harder for to public try and push him to accept compromise agreements that involve giving up territory.
Boris is emphasising that Ukraine must be involved but the links of Macron/France + Germany might otherwise be keen to push for some sort of compromise deal and aim to get things more normal-is with Russia.
I still think they want to secure a permenant land corridor down to crimea and they will probably be happy with that.
Whether that's acceptable to Ukraine and the rest of the world is a different story, as it sends a message to putin that he can do as he pleases.
Whatever the outcome is, the current regime is finished in one way or the other. The only way sanctions should be ramped down is if Russia gets out of Ukraine totally and Europe will see it cannot rely on a dictators resources or to think a dictator can be come round to our way or a western way of thinking.
You cannot placate a bully and I hope there are far reaching reforms in the UN with the power of Veto.
Past 10hrs:
*Saudi Arabia and UAE Push for More Security Support From Us – Ft https://www.ft.com/content/7dc6dc40-358f-4e30-8e60-b0e36ba27064
*On Friday, One Terminal at CPC Will Reopen – Minister of Kazakhstan.
*By the Summer, Germany Hopes to Have Cut Its Reliance on Russian Oil in Half. – Spiegel.
*Russian Hackers Targeted Global Energy Companies and Infrastructure, the West Says-LBC News
*Traders in China Strike Rare Alumina Deal With Russia’s Rusal: Bloomberg
*UK Says Ukraine Has Re-occupied Towns and Defensive Positions Up to 35 Kilometres East of Kyiv
*BOR: Russia Put Restrictions on Western Assets Worth the Same Volume As of Russian Assets Frozen by Western Countries.
*According to the Russian Defence Ministry, Russia Destroyed a Major Fuel Depot Outside of Kyiv With a Kalibr Missile Strike – IFAX.
*Russian Oil and Gas Condensate Output Stood at 11.08 Mln Bpd on March 24th.
*Russian Oil and Gas Condensate Output Stable Over Recent Weeks, Stood at 11.11 Mln Bpd on March 1–24th (vs. Average 11.06 Mln Bpd in February) – Sources.
*Exec. VP EU Commission Vestager: Tough New Rules Targeting Us Tech Giants Is Expected to Come Into Force in October.
*The US Will Work to Ensure an Additional 15 Billion Cubic Metres of LNG for the EU Market in 2022 – Document.
*The EU Is to Work to Towards the Goal of Ensuring About 50 Bcm Additional LNG From the US for EU Countries Until at Least 2030 – Document
*The United States and the European Union Have Reached an Agreement on Energy Supply to Cut Dependence on Russia.
*Germany Plans to Be Almost Independent From Russian Gas by Mid 2024.
*The US Aims to Supply the EU With at Least 15 Bcm of Extra LNG in 2022.
*German Economy Minister Habeck: We Have Managed to Reduce Coal and Oil Imports From Russia in the Last Four Weeks.
*German Economy Minister Habeck: We Hope That, by Summer, We Can Halve Oil Imports From Russia: And by Autumn, We Can Stop All Coal Imports From Russia.
*German Economy Minister Habeck: We Are Aiming to Only Import 24% of Gas From Russia by Summer.
*German Economy Minister Habeck: We Have Reduced Russian Oil Imports to 25% From 35%, and Russian Gas Down to 40% From 55%.
*German Economy Minister Habeck: We Will Consult With Our Partners About Putin’s Demand That We Pay for Russian Gas With Roubles.
*German Economy Minister Habeck: Extending the Life of Germany’s Nuclear Power Stations Will Not Help in Case of Gas Shortage.
*Russia’s Arctic Gas Development, Japan and France Freeze Investment – Nikkei https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA2541C0V20C22A3000000/ https://twitter.com/Jordanfabian/status/1507273939382419472
*Pres. Of EU Council Michel: The EU and the US Reaffirmed Their Absolute Unity in Aiding Ukraine, and Will Continue Implementing Sanctions Against Russia.
*Turkey’s President Erdogan: Russia and Ukraine Can Reach Compromise on 4 of 6 Issues Discussed, Territorial Disputes Remain – Media
*Turkey’s President Erdogan: I Will Speak With Ukraine’s Zelenskiy and Russia’s Putin in the Coming Days to Assess the NATO Summit – Media.
*Turkey’s President Erdogan, When Asked About Sanctions on Russia: Nothing Can Be Done Due to Turkey’s Energy Needs – Media
*President Biden of the United States Stated, We Are Working Together to Reduce Europe’s Reliance on Russian Energy.
*President Biden of the United States Stated That These Steps Will Increase Energy and National Security.
*EC Pres. Von der Leyen: The LNG From the US Will Replace LNG From Russia.
*EC Pres. Von der Leyen: Europe Will Work to Ensure Stable Demand for Additional Us LNG Until at Least 2030.
*BOFA: Weekly Flows of $13.2 Bln to Cash, $2.1 Bln to Gold, $0.2 Bln From Bonds, $1.9 Bln From Stocks
*BOFA: Bond Outflows for 11 Consecutive Weeks, Longest Streak Since Q4 2008
*BOFA: “Commodity Prices on Course for Best Year Since 1915, “Government Bonds on Course for Worst Year Since 1949”
*BOFA: “Rates Shock: Getting Worse…Central Bank Panic Is Now ‘Credibility’ Which Together With Surging Inflation Suggests Aggressive 50BPS Hikes in Coming Quarters”
*BOFA: Expect Two 50 Bps U.S. Interest Rate Hikes at June and July Federal Reserve Policy Meetings
*BOFA: Expect Terminal Interest Rae Peak at 3–3.25% Range in May 2023, a 25 Bps Increase From Previous Forecasts
*Russian and Azeri Defence Minister Discussed Karabakh Over the Phone.
*Asked About Refusal of Some European Countries to Start Paying for Russian Gas in Roubles, Kremlin: Putin Has Ordered Gazprom to Accept Payment in Roubles.
*Kremlin: Novatek Was Not Instructed to Accept Payments in Roubles
*Kremlin: Gazprom Needs to Work Out How That Can Be Done From a Technical and Logistical Point of View.
*Kremlin: The Russian Military Will Make Recommendations to Putin on How to Best Respond to Nato’s Strengthening of Its Eastern Flank.
*Kremlin, Commenting on Biden’s Desire to Expel Russia From G20: The World Is Much More Diverse Than Us and Europe
*Ukraine Urges EU to Close Russia, Belarus Borders to Enforce Sanctions
*Ukraine Defence Ministry: Russian Forces Have Partly Succeeded in Creating Land Corridor Between Crimea and Occupied Donetsk Region
*Ukraine Government Lifts Requirement for Export Licences for Corn and Sunflower Oil for 2021/22 Season – Government
*Kyiv Region Administration: Slavutych Town Near Chernobyl Is “Completely Isolated” With Russian Troops 1.5 km From Town
*Ukrainian Presidential Adviser Says First Russian Attack on Slavutych, Where Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Workers Live, Was Repulsed
Past 4hrs:
*German Economy Ministry Spokesperson: Utilities Are Obliged to Ensure Compliance With Contracts With Russia to Pay for Oil and Gas in Dollars or Euros
*China’s President, Xi Spoke With UK’s Prime Minister Johnson. – State-Run Media.
*China’s President, Xi in a Phone Call With UK’s Prime Minister Johnson: China Is Willing to Play a Constructive Role to Encourage Ukraine & Russia to Have Peace Talks.
*Japan’s PM Kishida Suggests That Biden Visits Japan in Late April – Kyodo.
*UK Publishes Revised Russia Sanctions Guidance to Clarify That the Prohibition on Providing Financial Services for the Purposes of Foreign Exchange Reserve and Asset Management Also Applies to Transactions Involving Gold
* 'China's state-run Sinopec Group has suspended talks for a major petrochemical investment and a gas marketing venture in Russia, sources told Reuters, heeding a government call for caution as sanctions mount over the invasion of Ukraine.' https://www.reuters.com/business/en...ts-beijing-wary-sanctions-sources-2022-03-25/
*The Chinese Government Tells State Energy Firms Not to Make Rash Moves Buying Russian Assets – Source.
*Sinopec-Sibur’s Amur Gas Chemical Venture Hits Funding Snags Due to Sanctions – Sources.
*Sibur Says Working With Sinopec on Amur’s Project Financing – Rtrs
*Putin: West Is Trying to Cancel Russian Culture Including Greats Such As Tchaikovsky, Rachmaninov
*Russia’s Gazprom Seeks Payment for Gas Sales to India’s Gail in Euros Instead of Dollars -Sources
Past 2hrs:
*US Treasury Secretary Yellen: It Is Not Appropriate Now to Sanction China As Russia’s Partner.
*US Treasury Secretary Yellen: I Am Not Seeing the End of Globalization.
*US Treasury Secretary Yellen: I Don’t See Any Signs of Weakness in the US Economy, and Job Growth Is Strong.
*US Treasury Secretary Yellen: The Ukraine Situation Is Putting Pressure on Commodity Prices – CNBC Interview.
*US Treasury Secretary Yellen: I’m Concerned About the Spill Over to Countries Dependent on Wheat.
*US Treasury Secretary Yellen: Oil Price Increases Will Harm Global Growth.
*US Treasury Secretary Yellen: It Is Conceivable That Oil Prices Could Go Higher.
*US Treasury Secretary Yellen: Russia’s Economy Will Be Degraded for a Long Time as a Result of Sanctions.
*US Treasury Secretary Yellen: There Is Some Chance That Sanctions Will Affect Putin’s Decisions in the Future.
*US Treasury Secretary Yellen: Imposing Sanctions on Russian Businessman Abramovich Remains a Possibility
*US Treasury Secretary Yellen: Declines to Comment on Fed Policy, but Rate Calls Is Up to Them.
*US Treasury Secretary Yellen Has Scepticism on Crypto, Citing Concerns on Illicit Use.
*US Treasury Secretary Yellen: Cyber Is a Legitimate Risk.
*The United States Will Not Push Ukraine Into Any Particular Outcome.
*The United States Claims That China Has Not Advanced Military Equipment to Russia.
*US National Security Adviser Sullivan: I Believe We Have Found Sources to Hit the LNG Target.
*US National Security Adviser Sullivan: There Has Been No Invocation of Article 5 at This Point.
*US National Security Adviser Sullivan: We Still Retain Capacity to Impose More Costs on Russia.
*US National Security Adviser Sullivan: There Is Likely More in Store From North Korea.
*US National Security Adviser Sullivan: Contingency Planning on Chance Russia Strikes NATO
*US National Security Adviser Sullivan: U.S & NATO Doing Contingency Planning for the Possibility That Russia Chooses to Strike NATO Territory
*US National Security Adviser Sullivan: More Discussions About Oil Release, Have Taken Place.
*US National Security Adviser Sullivan: We Are Looking at Various Actions We Can Take.
*US National Security Adviser Sullivan: Oil Was a Major Topic of Conversation at the G-7 Meeting.
*Russian Finance Ministry: Switching Gas Export Payments to Roubles Will Allow the Russian Fuel Industry to Count on Uninterrupted Inflows of Export Revenues.
*Russia Says Storming Blocked Ukraine Cities Possible – Ifax
*Russia Not Yet Planning to Storm Blocked Ukraine Cities – Ifax
*Russian Defence Ministry Has Stated That Its Forces Will Focus on the Complete Liberation of Donbass – Ifax.
*Russian Defence Minsitry: We Were Considering Two Options for Our Special Operation, One Within Donbas Separatist Republics, or the Other on Whole Territory of Ukraine – Ifax
*Russian Troops Will Respond Immediately to Any Attempt to Close Airspace Over Ukraine, According to the Russian Defence Ministry – Ria.
*Russian Military: It Is a Big Mistake That the West Supplies Weapons to Ukraine, This Prolongs the Conflict – Ifax
*The Main Targets of Russia’s First Phase of Operations in Ukraine Have Been Completed, According to the Russian Defence Ministry – Tass.
*Russian Defence Ministry: 93% of Luhansk Region’s Territory Has Been Liberated – Tass
*The Russian Foreign Ministry Has Stated That Russia’s Withdrawal From the World Trade Organization Would Be Counter-Productive – Tass.
*Russian Foreign Ministry: Refusal to Buy Russian Gas for Roubles Could Lead to a Crisis of Failed Payments and a Series of Bankruptcies Globally – Ria.
*Russian Defence Ministry: Russia Will Continue the Special Operation Until It Reaches the Targets Set by Putin – Ria.
Past Hour:
*Governor of Ukraine’s Rivne Region Says Region’s Rail Connection With Belarus Has Been Suspended to Prevent Any Supplies Reaching Russian Troops
*Ukraine’s Deputy Office Head Zhovkva: Some Russia Talks Agreements Are Not Fulfilled.
*Ukraine’s Deputy Office Head Zhovkva: Serious Negotiations Require Ukraine’s President Zelensky and Putin to Talk.
*Ukraine’s Deputy Office Head Zhovkva: It Is Unclear if Russia Is Serious on Talks or Trying for Time.
*Ukraine’s Deputy Office Head Zhovkva: The Country Will Never Surrender.
*Ukraine’s Deputy Office Head Zhovkva: Territory in Donbas and Crimea Are Non-negotiable.
*Ukraine’s Deputy Office Head Zhovkva: We Don’t Want a Peace Agreement on Russian Terms.
*Russian Negotiator at Talks With Ukraine: The Two Sides Have Come Closer Together on Secondary Issues, but They’re Not Really Moving Forward on Key Ones – IFAX.
*Russian Negotiator at Talks With Ukraine: Russia Wants a Comprehensive Deal With Whole Range of Positions, Without Which Coming to an Agreement Is Unlikely – Interfax.
*Russian Negotiator at Talks With Ukraine: Russia Thinks That Ukraine Is Trying to Stretch Out Talks – IFAX.
*Russia Sees No Progress on the Key Issues in the Ukraine Talks – IFAX. *Urals Crude Loadings From Baltic to Jump to 6.9 Mln Tonnes in April.
*Russia Urals Oil Seaborne Crude Exports to Jump to 3-Year High
*Senior White House Official for Indo-Pacific Mira Rapp-Hooper Says India’s Position on Ukraine Crisis Has Been Unsatisfactory, but Unsurprising
*Senior White House Official for Indo-Pacific Mira Rapp-Hooper: It’s Necessary to Give India Options When It Comes to Its Relationship With Russia.
*US Deputy Treasury Sec. Adeyemo to Travel to Europe on March 27 to April 1 to Discuss Sanctions in Coordination With Allies – Us Treasury Department.
*US National Security Advisor: We Will Work Closely With Our International Partners to Increase Pressure on Iran if Diplomacy Does Not Work
*US National Security Adviser: We’ve Made Significant Progress, but There Are Still Outstanding Issues to Return to the Iran Nuclear Deal – Al Jazeera Twitter.
*UK’s Prime Minister Johnson and China’s President Xi Had a Frank and Candid Conversation, Lasting Almost an Hour.
*UK’s Prime Minister Johnson and China’s President Xi Discussed a Range of Issues of Mutual Interest, Including the Situation in the Ukraine – UK PM Office.
*German Finance Minister Lindner: I Advise Energy Suppliers Not to Pay for Russian Gas in Roubled – Welt TV Interview
*Fed’s Williams: Transparency in Monetary Policy Can Increase Its Effectiveness and Reduce Unintended Consequences.
*Fed’s Williams: The Actions Central Banks Take Can Affect the Flow of Capital Across Countries.
*Fed’s Williams: Many Countries Are Confronting a Sharp Rise in Inflation.
*Fed’s Williams: Risk Management Is at the Forefront of Thinking Among Central Bankers.
*Fed’s Williams: The Economic Repercussions of COVID-19 and the Situation in Ukraine Are Exceedingly Uncertain.
*Fed’s Williams: Inflation Is at the Forefront of All of Our Thinking.
*Fed’s Williams: The Fed Is Moving to Unwind Its Highly Accommodative Policy.
*Fed’s Williams: We’re Keeping a Careful Eye on Inflation Expectations and Other Indicators.
*Fed’s Williams: Medium and Longer Run Inflation Expectations Have Stayed Remarkably Stable.
*Fed’s Williams: Overall Financial Markets Have Adjusted Expectations With Minimal Disruption.
*Fed’s Williams: Policy Measures, on the Other Hand, Tend to Reinforce That Equilibrium.
*Fed’s Williams: I Have Seen a Significant Shift in Global Policy Stance.
*Fed’s Williams: Overall, Financial Markets Have Modified Expectations With Little Disruption.
*Fed’s Williams: We Have Seen a Significant Shift in the Global Policy Stance.
*Fed’s Williams: Despite the Shift Being Modest So Far, There Is Market Disruption.
*Fed’s Williams: The Fed Needs to Be Clear That Both Balance Sheet Reduction and Rising Rates Will Affect Financial Conditions.
*Fed’s Williams: The Fed Are on Track to Start Balance-Sheet Roll off This Year.
*Fed’s Williams: Data Should Drive Interest Rate Hikes This Year.
*Fed’s Williams: Given Supply Demand Imbalances, We Need to Move Rates Steadily Back to Normal Levels.
*Fed’s Williams: I Am Very Focused on Thinking About Real Interest Rates.
*Fed’s Williams: In Determining the Rate Path, We Need to Keep an Eye on Whether Supply Chains Ebb.
*Fed’s Williams: The Situation in Ukraine Could Have an Impact on the Forecast, So the Fed Must Be Nimble.
*Fed’s Williams When Asked About a 50 Bps Rate Rise in May: I Will Watch the Data and Analyse It.
*Fed’s Williams: If It Is Appropriate to Raise by 50 Basis Points at a Meeting, I Will Do That.
*Fed’s Williams: We Need to Make the Right Decisions Based on What We Are Seeing in the Economy.
*Fed’s Williams: The Fed Understands That Its Actions Affect Entire World.
*Fed’s Williams: Low and Stable Inflation Is Critical to the Fed’s Objectives.
*Fed’s Williams: Inflation Data Have Clearly Come in Much Higher Than Expected.
*Fed’s Williams: Economic Data Has Been Significantly Stronger Than Predicted Generally, and Omicron Has Had Little Impact.
*Fed’s Williams: The Supply Chain Issues Have Not Improved in the Way That We Had Hoped.
*Fed’s Williams: There’s Now a Very Strong Focus That Inflation Is Well Above Our Target, It Is Critical to Keep Inflation Expectations Anchored.
*Citi: In Our Latest Note, We See a 50 Bps Hikes in May, June and September.
I wonder if there is a psychological argument for standing up to putin sooner rather than later.
We are currently backing him into a corner gently. -slowly eating away at what he can hope to be left with after the dust settles. Is it possible that by the time we are willing to stand up to him and he is faced with the possibility of losing "everything" that such a prospect will have little deterrent effect because he will already be most of the way there and had time to adjust his expectations down incrementally....gently?
Would it not be better to stand up to him when he has more to lose?
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