Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[Turn]

*India’s MRPL Refinery Buys 1 Mln BBL of Russian Oil via Tender for May Loading — Trade Sources
https://financialpost.com/pmn/busin...f-russian-urals-crude-for-may-loading-traders

*Putin Signs Decree With Visa Restrictions Against “Unfriendly Countries” in Response to Sanctions
*Putin’s New Visa Decree Halts a Simplified Visa Issuance Regime for Nationals of Unfriendly Countries.
https://www.reuters.com/world/russi...ons-citizens-unfriendly-countries-2022-04-04/

Spoiler: UK MoD Map — 'The map below is the latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 04 April 2022'

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1510944371780296706

 

[GGizmo]

We need to be setting the red lines now and saying if Putin goes beyond them there will be hell.

I feel this is like pre-WW2 and nobody wanting to get involved, until Britain set the red line that if Poland is attacked we will join the war.

At the moment we're just passively handing out weapons (like the Americans did at the start of WW2).

Unless the Russian military runs out of ammo and turn back themselves, then these atrocities are going to continue. Putin as gone past the point of no return.

 

[RobHu]

Pretty much yep it is. If they are all tied up or killed for no reason it is murder.
Not every corpse is an execution though. Horrific for those involved though still.
Soldiers fighting have less inclination to make the distinction of a court case when they are killing and being killed.
Has been the case. Will always be the case.
Not sanitising war. War is **** and we should remind ourselves if that when we post our line in the sand to other countries.

Of course civilians are sadly going to get caught in the crossfire at times but it does appear that there's quite a lot of this type of blatant murdering happening. In one of the previously occupied towns the mayor + their family were executed and partially buried in a ditch with one stuffed into a sewerage pipe for example. The Russian 'kill list' that was being talked about by Ukrainian intelligence at that the start of the invasion seems to have been a reality. I think the plan was very clearly to take and hold these areas indefinitely (or at least until a puppet was installed), thus allowing them to cover up these war crimes. Fortunately that has backfired spectacularly in the north and they've been forced into a chaotic retreat without time to clean up after themselves, and now the world gets to see what they've done.

 

[andybird123]

It is to about 75% of the planet - South America, Africa, Middle East, Far East etc. It only tends to be countries with "Western" morals where it's not viewed as "normal" to do these things as part of war but to the vast majority of the planet war is a brutal, horrible thing where no-one escapes unscathed.

Those places aren't permanent members of the UN security council, or signatories of the geneva convention though. If Russia want to be removed from these and lose their veto in the UN then that may actually help Ukraine.

 

[The Running Man]

We need to be setting the red lines now and saying if Putin goes beyond them there will be hell.

I feel this is like pre-WW2 and nobody wanting to get involved, until Britain set the red line that if Poland is attacked we will join the war.

At the moment we're just passively handing out weapons (like the Americans did at the start of WW2).

Unless the Russian military runs out of ammo and turn back themselves, then these atrocities are going to continue. Putin as gone past the point of no return.

The red line should be when one country invades another, sending in troops, tanks and firing missiles into the defenders territory.

Russia know now they have carte blanch to invade any country not currently in Nato and no one will intervene properly.

 

[Mr Jack]

Can the EU still sanction Russian gas even if Austria disagrees and won't support it?

Probably requires unanimity anyway, but I doubt Austria is the only country that would be against it - some of the Eastern states are even more dependent on Russian Gas - and I doubt that the other states would overrule such an objection anyway. Imposing that level of damage to an EU country would cause significant political turmoil within the EU.

 

[Turn]

— Bloomberg (CET Time)

Spoiler: *Deutsche Bank CEO Warns Against Russia Energy Ban

*Deutsche Bank CEO Warns Against Russia Energy Ban

Spoiler: *Finnish Customs Halts Sanctioned Shipments

*Finnish Customs Halts Sanctioned Shipments

*Ukraine Prosecutor General: Events in Irpin, Bucha and Other Places Will Be Investigated
*Ukraine Prosecutor General: Russian Forces Have Committed Many Crimes in Ukraine Classifiable As “Crimes Against Humanity”
*Red Cross Says Cannot Reach Mariupol Due to Security Conditions — RTRS
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...ence-growing-mariupol-mass-graves-2022-03-25/

*Russia Will Lift the Ban on Flights to and From 52 Countries After April 9 — TASS Cites PM Mishustin
*Russian PM Mishustin: The Resumption of Flights Is Connected to the Lifting of Covid-19 Restrictions — TASS

Spoiler: Oil/OPEC+ Production & Cost - Kazakhstan/Saudi

*Kazakhstan March Oil Production Declines 3% M/m to 1.55 Mln Bpd Amid CPC Maintenance, Falls Below OPEC+ Quota — Sources, Reuters Calculations

*In May, Saudi Arabia Raises All Oil Prices for Asian Customers.
*Saudi Aramco Raises Arab Light Crude for Asia to $9.35/BBL.

*Spanish Authorities Detain Super Yacht Suspected to Belong to a Russian Oligarch in Mallorca, Police Say — RTRS

*Spanish Police Seizes Russian Billionaire Vekselberg’s Yacht

 

[chrismscotland]

Who are those nations?

If you take Trident out of the mix there's certainly plenty of countries with a much larger Army - India, Pakistan, even Turkey - I just don't get this idea that just because some nations at some point historically had nukes they should permanently be allowed to veto things in the Security Council.

 

[Chuk_Chuk]

Andy did you listen to the pete mccormack podcast with Scott Horton?

I finally watched this and very interesting to see how decisions can spiral out of control and can make war envitable, years down the line.

I was listening to Dan Carlin - The destroyer of Worlds (podcast). Its a podcast about nuclear weapons and the geopolitics during the cold war. It is nearly 6 hours long but worth it IMO. John F Kennedy was considered weak by his advisors because he blockaded cuba, while they were calling for the bombing of the missle silos in Cuba (potentially killing russian workers) at a minimum, with some wanting a full scale invasion of Cuba. It is fascinating how he had to balance the needs for peace, national security and pride in the face of the voting population and other politicians to navigate the situation.

I wonder what sort of conversations are going on behind the closed doors of nations right now.

 

[Firestar_3x]

If you take Trident out of the mix there's certainly plenty of countries with a much larger Army - India, Pakistan, even Turkey - I just don't get this idea that just because some nations at some point historically had nukes they should permanently be allowed to veto things in the Security Council.

Yea, because size of army is the only defining metric to a "better" military.

 

[chrismscotland]

There's not plenty of other nations more militarily powerful than the UK that aren't security council members, depending on how you choose to measure it there's at most 3. I think the British are too fond of underplaying how significant a global country Britain still is: we're a global economic, cultural, diplomatic, and military powerhouse. I think the veto should be softened, so that single permanent members can be outvoted by the rest, but I think your proposal that:



Doesn't work. Ultimately the UN Security Council depends on the actions of member nations to actually do anything, it needs the most significant powers around the world to agree or it's nothing more than a talking shop. The US isn't going to listen to Council instructions it would have veto'd anyway, neither are any of the other permanent members. A randomly chosen collection of countries don't have the de facto authority to make their voice listened to. The Permanent members, as a group, do.

Personally I think GB suffers from severe delusions of grandeur, if we didn't have Trident we would be a bit-part player in many things.
Your right though the bigger nations should be part of the Sec Council - as you say nations are less likely to be willing to listen to a council which on rotation is formed of North Korea, Cambodia, Ireland and Denmark than one which permanently has the US, etc on board.

I like your idea that a single dissenting vote could be over-ruled

 

[chrismscotland]

Yea, because size of army is the only defining metric to a "better" military.

Its not no, Russia if anything has shown us that in Ukraine but someone like India spends billions on proper modern kit for their Air Force, Navy and Army - mostly UK, French and modern Russian Kit - we seem to have Trident, a couple of massively expensive aircraft carriers, the new F-35's coming on and all but ignore the massive levels of investment that the rest of the armed forces need, especially the Army which is still massively geared toward Afghanistan/Iraq type ops.

 

[andybird123]

The red line should be when one country invades another, sending in troops, tanks and firing missiles into the defenders territory.

Russia know now they have carte blanch to invade any country not currently in Nato and no one will intervene properly.

The US(Bush) sent "peacekeepers" in to Georgia and Putin turned tail and ran, the US still have about 1500 troops in Georgia. I'm confused as to why Biden didn't do the same for Ukraine.

 

[Turn]

*Ukraine Human Rights Ombudswoman: Returning Ukrainian POWS Say Their Treatment by Russia Broke Geneva Conventions

*Germany Seeks Buyers for Gazprom Unit With State Guarantees
*Saudi Aramco Raises All Oil Prices for US and Europe in May

*Exec. VP EU Commission Dombrovskis: The EU Must Do More to Stop Atrocities in Ukraine.
*Exec. VP EU Commission Dombrovskis on Sanctions: For the Commission, Nothing Is Off Table.
*Exec. VP EU Commission Dombrovskis: Currently, a Slowdown, Not a Recession, Is Expected.
*Lithuania Downgrades Diplomatic Relations With Russia
*Belgian Finance Minister: EU Needs to Accelerate a New Package of Sanctions Against Russia.
*Belgian Finance Minister: Won’t Oppose Russian Oil Sanctions

*Village Leader and Family Found Buried in Shallow Grave Outside Ukrainian Capital
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...w-grave-outside-ukrainian-capital-2022-04-04/

 

[Minusorange]

Playing devils advocate here, are you actually able to refute those allegations?

When Russian media is coming out with stuff like this (read the thread of tweets)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510910740261134338

It seems incredibly likely that it was the Russians who orchestrated this mass murder of civilians and some poorly attempted burial

There's also satellite data which proves graves were being dug while Russians were in control of Bucha

https://github.com/mapconcierge/Ukraine2022data/issues/23

I'd say that is pretty damning evidence, wouldn't you ?

 

[Chris Wilson]

As Victor Orban has just been resoundingly re-elected in Hungary and on the record to be firmly against bankrupting his country for Ukraine, (although I think he has sent medical aid and absorbed a lot of Ukrainian refugees), that's another EU country strongly against sanctions involving fuel purchases. Again the concept of the EU is shown lacking, as it was over vaccines, where, when potentially serious situations develop, member states quite rightly look inwardly to save their own skins.

 

[Freddie1980]

When Russian media is coming out with stuff like this (read the thread of tweets)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510910740261134338

It seems incredibly likely that it was the Russians who orchestrated this mass murder of civilians and some poorly attempted burial

There's also satellite data which proves graves were being dug while Russians were in control of Bucha

https://github.com/mapconcierge/Ukraine2022data/issues/23

I'd say that is pretty damning evidence, wouldn't you ?

When people would call Putin 'Hitler' I thought it was just a sound bite and Putin although was an aggressive totalitarian bully with delusions of grandeur. But reading stuff like this you can't help put remark at the similarities between the way those two think when it comes to dealing with a group of people you dislike.

 

[Washout]

https://liveuamap.com/

Well it looks like the Russian's have now given up on Summy as well which allows the Ukrainian army to move east towards Kharkiv. Judging by the rapid dispersal of Russia forces in the north and the evacuation of civilians in the Lukansk region it looks like there is going to be a big push in the Donbass in the coming days.

I believe Ukraine already had it's best forces on the line in Donbass since 2014. They've pretty much not budged since this all kicked off as the Russians tried to pincer them in which failed since they couldn't take Kharkiv or move north from Mariupol.
I do wonder how they think they're going to get them out? Especially with troops in the rest of the country freed up now? Hopefully won't see chemical weapons used. It would take biblical artillery bombardments to break them up. I can't see anything other than stalemate.

Going full on armchair general here but: you'd almost wonder if it'd be best to fall back a bit and invite them in to expose themselves to ambushes as they're most vulnerable on the move through towns, villages and the roads in between. Bit like how the Russians broke their backs trying to move south on Kyiv and Kharkiv? Also means their planes have to come over your airspace more rather than short hops over the lines. Risky though as no guarantee you get that land back any time soon and we've seen what happens to civilians that haven't got out.
Speaking of, the other aspect of this is Ukrainians are going to be showing very little mercy given the events recently. How much less will be shown to soldiers and maybe people from the breakaway regions if Ukraine actually pushes back? It's effectively a civil war now and they almost always tend to be the most brutal.

 

[bris]

I've just seen a pretty suspicious video. I really hope the Ukranians aren't fabricating additional evidence.

Stupit thing to say, they don't need to fabricate anything, independent news journalists are seing this with their own eyes.

 

[gpuerrilla]

I finally watched this and very interesting to see how decisions can spiral out of control and can make war envitable, years down the line.

I was listening to Dan Carlin - The destroyer of Worlds (podcast). Its a podcast about nuclear weapons and the geopolitics during the cold war. It is nearly 6 hours long but worth it IMO. John F Kennedy was considered weak by his advisors because he blockaded cuba, while they were calling for the bombing of the missle silos in Cuba (potentially killing russian workers) at a minimum, with some wanting a full scale invasion of Cuba. It is fascinating how he had to balance the needs for peace, national security and pride in the face of the voting population and other politicians to navigate the situation.

I wonder what sort of conversations are going on behind the closed doors of nations right now.

Yes the podcasts add another dimension to opinion on the matter instead of reading the condensed headlines we are fed. Like anything its all interpreted to your own fact standards as we know any source can exaggerate or bend truths, but getting a far better mindset of the people and their history makes your opinion more accurate. If you find any gems please recommend them my way.