Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[Doggie2k]

A bit optimistic to think Russia can have another crack at Kyiv just yet given the slow progress in the east. Could be a faint to lock Ukrainian units into securing the northern border and prevent them from reinforcing the east or being moved into counter offensives in the south.

Lukashenko maybe be in Putin's pocket but he's not foolish enough to risk his army to invade Ukraine. His army is the only thing between him and spending the rest of his days in prison, why risk it?

I'm no military buff but they will probably do what they have been doing in the east and start rolling barage artillary destroying everything. I think the original goal was to capture Ukraine intact and start exploiting its resources but now its a win at all costs. Idiots will probably start shelling Chernobyle again

 

[Werewolf]

I'm no military buff but they will probably do what they have been doing in the east and start rolling barage artillary destroying everything. I think the original goal was to capture Ukraine intact and start exploiting its resources but now its a win at all costs. Idiots will probably start shelling Chernobyle again

Yup.

The way it's going far from being an easy grab of land and assets for Russia that would in theory be a big benefit to the Russian economy, it's looking like even if they capture it all and the sanctions stop immediately it's going to end up being a drain on Russia for decades as they'll have destroyed all the infrastructure and industry that would have made easy money to be syphoned off by Putin and co, let alone what it's cost the Russian's in terms of manpower and military resources lost/used up in the invasion and the ongoing costs to suppress any remaining population*, whilst causing it's neighbouring countries to reconsider their alliances (or lack of) and increasing their spending.


*A lesson you'd have thought the Russians would have learned from history, both theirs and the West's.

 

[Hagar]

Russia may retain some wealth due to hydrocarbons which the world is trying to wean itself off and hopefully they will try harder.
They have no tech sector, no modern industrial base, automotive etc,. They have little that makes life fun for the people. Until sanctions are lifted and for some time after, the west is not going to return. When parts run out for the confiscated planes and the modern appliances and cars it is back to Wolfsberg and Trabant comrades. A superior type of travel for the Russian citizen from our own factories.

 

[Andrew_McP]

This will probably get posted a dozen times. But it's still worth watching a dozen times.

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1532695309943463939

 

[potatolord]

Yup.

The way it's going far from being an easy grab of land and assets for Russia that would in theory be a big benefit to the Russian economy, it's looking like even if they capture it all and the sanctions stop immediately it's going to end up being a drain on Russia for decades as they'll have destroyed all the infrastructure and industry that would have made easy money to be syphoned off by Putin and co, let alone what it's cost the Russian's in terms of manpower and military resources lost/used up in the invasion and the ongoing costs to suppress any remaining population*, whilst causing it's neighbouring countries to reconsider their alliances (or lack of) and increasing their spending.


*A lesson you'd have thought the Russians would have learned from history, both theirs and the West's.

On the plus side for Russia, a fair chunk of the population has left for Europe. That's reduced the hostile population substantially.

Russia has to be pushed back to their own territory for those people to even have a chance of returning.

The assumption is those people will return when the conflict ends. It is possible a large proportion will not, or cannot, and will choose to remain in comparatively richer countries permanently, as previous asylum seekers have tended to.

This will increasingly become a drain on the will and resources of countries like Poland and Romania.

If Russia is hoping to play the long game, this will become a factor.

 

[Chris Wilson]

As potatolord says above, Poland and maybe less publicly the UK is already showing signs of UF (Ukrainian Fatigue). Many they kindly but blindly took in as refugees are women with young toddlers, and short of child minders or the ability to serve up huge extra numbers of kindergarten spaces, these women can't work.The generous, but as I said weeks ago, ill thought out offers of homes relies then on the state paying for these women and their kids, for a VERY long time, or those offering accomodation being willing and able to do so for free. Neither scenario will last long as commodity prices and living expenses rise exponentially. Then people will want them out, and they'll find out, probably via long winded court cases, encouraged by greedy lawyers, whether they can just tell them to leave...

 

[StriderX]

I'm not sure fatigue means much considering we spent ~20 years in Afghanistan losing soldiers, equipment and money on a seemingly hopeless cause.

 

[ubersonic]

Ukraine: Turkey buys stolen grain via Russia, lmao

In all fairness to Turkey, Ukraine can't get it's grain out, Russia is shipping it out.

This isn't like oil/gas where boycotts will result in price rises and some people being colder than normal, you can't boycott a food source that you depend on. No sane government is going to ask it's people to go hungry in a show of support to an ally.

Some countries of the EU (which Turkey isn’t in- prevented from being in)

Prevented from being in due to their ongoing occupation of an EU member state.

 

[dowie]

A bit optimistic to think Russia can have another crack at Kyiv just yet given the slow progress in the east. Could be a faint to lock Ukrainian units into securing the northern border and prevent them from reinforcing the east or being moved into counter offensives in the south.

Lukashenko maybe be in Putin's pocket but he's not foolish enough to risk his army to invade Ukraine. His army is the only thing between him and spending the rest of his days in prison, why risk it?

Yeah, it almost seems like there is a possible turning point in the east, a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive. The Ukrainians have conceded some territory via tactical withdrawals but they're still not letting Russia take anything without paying a very heavy price for it, it's taken huge concentrated artillery fire for Russia to make some of these gains. They're also going on the offensive in the Kherson region which probably should worry Russia a fair bit.

 

[ubersonic]

T80BVM and T72B3 are both from 2013 , T90MS is 2018. This is literally their latest kit. According to some source T-14 production has stopped and T90 production has slowed, resulting in the modernisation programme of T72`s and reactivation of T64`s.

To expand slightly on this, when it comes to Russia there is quite a distinction between "latest kit" and actually modern/decent kit, I.E:

The T-72B3 Russia launched in 2013 are not new tanks, it is an upgrade package for older T-72B tanks, and it's not even a high end package it's a budget package so that 30+ year old tanks can be upgraded cheaply without having to buy the superior T-72B2 package. Estimates were they only had around 600 of these when the war started.

The T-80BVM is again an upgrade package for existing tanks (and this time they had 200-250 when the war started), but having to send any of these highlights the severe issues Russia is having because the Russian variants of the T-80 are not offensive tanks. They are cold weather tanks designed for defence whose MPG make them completely unsuitable for any kind of invasion. The fact Russia are sending gas turbine T-80s into Ukraine instead of using them to replace T-72/90 in service in Russia and sending them instead, shows how dire the tank situation has truly become for Russia. (NB: There is/was a diesel variant of the T-80 designed/produced for regular operation but Russia retired all of theirs in the 90s along with their T-64s as both tanks were designed/produced in Ukraine and they couldn't afford to import the parts to maintain them).

The T-90MS is a four year old update to the T-90M, which was an upgraded T-90A, which was an upgraded T-90, which was an upgraded T-72B. The idea that a recent T-90 is in any way noticeably better than a recent T-72 is simply marketing propaganda designed to make middle eastern dictators pay more for them.


This is Russia's main tank problem, aside from two T-14 prototypes they haven't actually built a tank since 1972, they've just been slapping upgrades onto their T-72 and Ukraine's T-64/T-80 and pretending like they make tanks. The reason so many people think they are "holding back" their "good kit" is simply because they have so little of it to send it looks like it's not being sent.

 

[Amnesia]

i am not addressing the world though, i am addressing the "alliance".

are you for serious? A country is being attacked for no reason whatsoever, its people are getting killed, their resources stolen by hypothetical allies and i should just deal with it? what kind of point of view is this, you sound very cynical tbh.

No reason what so ever #?
Oh so we back there now and all that NATO expansion stuff and Putin threatening Zelensky about joining NATO didn't happen.
Just because YOU don't agree with Putins reason doesn't mean he doesn't have one, I don't need to agree with it, you don't need to agree with it but he obviously felt strongly enough about it to go to war over.

 

[ChrisLX200]

No reason what so ever #?
Oh so we back there now and all that NATO expansion stuff and Putin threatening Zelensky about joining NATO didn't happen.
Just because YOU don't agree with Putins reason doesn't mean he doesn't have one, I don't need to agree with it, you don't need to agree with it but he obviously felt strongly enough about it to go to war over.

Yeah, and there's a reason bank robbers rob banks - but you don't need to agree with them right?

 

[Rroff]

No reason what so ever #?
Oh so we back there now and all that NATO expansion stuff and Putin threatening Zelensky about joining NATO didn't happen.
Just because YOU don't agree with Putins reason doesn't mean he doesn't have one, I don't need to agree with it, you don't need to agree with it but he obviously felt strongly enough about it to go to war over.

Do we really need to insert the subtext as to what kind of reason Iraklis was talking about? I'd have thought it fairly plain the kind of reason they were talking about.

 

[Amnesia]

Do we really need to insert the subtext as to what kind of reason Iraklis was talking about? I'd have thought it fairly plain the kind of reason they were talking about.

He clearly said NO REASON WHATSOEVER, feel free to make one up for him if you like then you can argue that which wasn't even said, you won't be the first poster here who does that.

 

[Amnesia]

Yeah, and there's a reason bank robbers rob banks - but you don't need to agree with them right?

So you're agreeing there is a reason...well done have a clap

 

[Hagar]

He clearly said NO REASON WHATSOEVER, feel free to make one up for him if you like then you can argue that which wasn't even said, you won't be the first poster here who does that.

He could have said no sane reason for killing thousands of people and destroying towns and cities.

 

[Iraklis F.C.]

He clearly said NO REASON WHATSOEVER, feel free to make one up for him if you like then you can argue that which wasn't even said, you won't be the first poster here who does that.

i wrote no reason whatsoever and i meant no REAL or SANE or JUSTIFIED reason, sorry english is not my native language.

heck, what am i apologizing for, Putin doesnt even recognize them as a nation....go figure

 

[Amnesia]

i wrote no reason whatsoever and i meant no REAL or SANE or JUSTIFIED reason, sorry english is not my native language.

Don't hide behind that, your English is fine.

 

[Iraklis F.C.]

Don't hide behind that, your English is fine.

my english maybe is fine (and thanks for that) but it isnt my native language. I am thinking in greek and then write down what i am trying to say in english, you have no idea how much harder this is than understanding english .

 

[Rroff]

i wrote no reason whatsoever and i meant no REAL or SANE or JUSTIFIED reason, sorry english is not my native language.

heck, what am i apologizing for, Putin doesnt even recognize them as a nation....go figure

It isn't you English - Amnesia is intentionally being dense to make a silly point.