Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Woke up early to see the EU or rather the EU commission still suck... despite the decision made by the council they (presumably with ze Germans pulling the strings as per usual) have decided to "clarify" the sanctions and have told Lithuania that Russian goods should be able to transit via rail regardless of sanctions... oh but not weapons.

EU democracy in action yet again, the commission just does what it wants or rather interprets things to suit the agendas/whims of its unelected bureaucrats regardless of what was originally agreed.

Hopefully, Lithuania tells them where to go!
 
dowie said:
Woke up early to see the EU or rather the EU commission still suck... despite the decision made by the council they (presumably with ze Germans pulling the strings as per usual) have decided to "clarify" the sanctions and have told Lithuania that Russian goods should be able to transit via rail regardless of sanctions... oh but not weapons.

EU democracy in action yet again, the commission just does what it wants or rather interprets things to suit the agendas/whims of its unelected bureaucrats regardless of what was originally agreed.

Hopefully, Lithuania tells them where to go!
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The commission is elected by the governments (elected by their citizens) and cannot function without the confidence of the legislative branch (also elected by their citizens), but you already know that.

As I said before Lithuania should accidentally the railway line going into Russia and just blame it on Belarusian rebels. It would force them to use more trucks which they then cannot use in Ukraine.
 
StriderX said:
The commission is elected by the governments (elected by their citizens) and cannot function without the confidence of the legislative branch (also elected by their citizens), but you already know that.
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Cope... Requires 2/3rds to sack the commission as a whole, can't sack individual commissioners but you already knew that. Only the president is elected in any sense of the word, commission posts are divvied up one per member state and the appointments are the result of a bit of horse-trading between them, there is no election process there.

Though back to the point; the council already approved these sanctions and now a bunch of unelected bureaucrats are meddling with that unilaterally and trying to get a member state to cave to Russian pressure. They're not going by what was agreed but are trying to re-interpret things on a whim to suit their own view.
 
Lithuania has a few options:
- Argue the legal jurisdiction option. Its their country the trains are passing through and my understanding is that EU does not have sovereign rule over member states.
- Ignore the rules they don't like as the French are infamous for.
- Implement it incredibly badly e.g. Greece, Italy. One surly border guard with an attitude problem can take a looong time.
- Implement it extremely thoroughly. A squad of people inspecting everything larger than a matchbox on the trains.

The trains can't go though unchecked - they are too obvious a route for smuggling.
 
dowie said:
Cope... Requires 2/3rds to sack the commission as a whole, can't sack individual commissioners but you already knew that. Only the president is elected in any sense of the word, commission posts are divvied up one per member state and the appointments are the result of a bit of horse-trading between them, there is no election process there.

Though back to the point; the council already approved these sanctions and now a bunch of unelected bureaucrats are meddling with that unilaterally and trying to get a member state to cave to Russian pressure. They're not going by what was agreed but are trying to re-interpret things on a whim to suit their own view.
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Bit OT but surely you have to draw a line on un/elected bureaucrats somewhere!? Otherwise you’ll be sat there voting in the next till operator in the canteen.
I don’t recall voting for the top bureaucrats in our own civil service?
 
Washout said:
I don’t recall voting for the top bureaucrats in our own civil service?
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But these guys are the executive, aside from the occasional peer (also from the political party or parties forming the government), our executive is formed of elected officials and they can and are sacked/removed.

peterwalkley said:
- Implement it extremely thoroughly. A squad of people inspecting everything larger than a matchbox on the trains.

The trains can't go though unchecked - they are too obvious a route for smuggling.
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That's a potential option, the EU can certainly be overly anal re: borders and customs when it suits them.

Likewise, member states, if Spain can deliberately cause chaos on the Gibraltar border whenever they feel like it under the premise that they're trying to stop cigarette smugglers or something then I'm sure Lithuania can have far more valid concerns re: weapons.
 
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Grim5 said:
There is only two scenarios under which I could see Ukraine being happy to hand Russia territory.

1) Russia utterly defeats Ukraine in battle which seems unlikely

2) Ukraine gets something tangible in return - just handing over territory with a peace treaty does nothing, Russia will come back for more in a few years, they've shown that to be true. The West needs to give Ukraine something tangible - for example they can come up with some agreement that Ukraine hands over some territory and in return the West either puts Ukraine into NATO or signs a comprehensive defence agreement that basically gaurantees WW3 if Russia comes back and this would need to include the stationing of western defences along the border between Ukraine and the new Russian border
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Russia will need significant gains to make their losses seem worth it and Ukraine have stated they won't cede any territory.
 
diamount said:
Russia will need significant gains to make their losses seem worth it and Ukraine have stated they won't cede any territory.
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They've also previously stated they won't attempt to take back Crimea by force (IIRC might have applied to pre-Feb lines in the east too)... so there is kinda room for a fudge there perhaps whereby they don't concede territory (at least not now) but do have some situation where Crimea is notionally claimed by them but administered by Russia and status tbc in some future referendum or talks or whatever...

As far as the more recent Russian occupation of further territory is concerned though they're obviously rather keen to take it back ASAP and not in any mood for concessions there.
 
diamount said:
Russia will need significant gains to make their losses seem worth it and Ukraine have stated they won't cede any territory.
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I don't think we should take Ukraine's claim that it won't cede territory as absolute. It is certainly their current position but realistically it won't hold. A time will come when Ukraine will decide that ceding territory is the lesser evil than continuing the war. It's very unlikely that the territory ceded will be that Russia currently holds but it's also unlikely that they will reclaim Crimea.
 
Rroff said:
One of the problems is the nature of some of the territory - Ukraine has/had a big (relatively) defence industry in some parts i.e. Kharkiv, other areas were big for things like coal mining, etc. even with guarantees they can't just give up some percentage of territory in the name of peace without there being further repercussions/considerations.
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Exactly, russia doesnt want the territory for the people its a land grab for the resources.

The areas they want produces millions of tons of grain, sunflower oil, iron ore and a few other precial commodities.

This isnt about people its about wealth and trying to re establish the once might soviet union.
 
Mr Jack said:
I don't think we should take Ukraine's claim that it won't cede territory as absolute. It is certainly their current position but realistically it won't hold. A time will come when Ukraine will decide that ceding territory is the lesser evil than continuing the war. It's very unlikely that the territory ceded will be that Russia currently holds but it's also unlikely that they will reclaim Crimea.
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Agreed.

Both sides will play the old game of maximising territorial gain prior to negotiation.

Russia must be hoping that increasing resource prices will reduce support for Ukraine to the point that they are forced to the table. Cynical, but possibly effective.
 
There was a famous American General whose name escapes me right now, and was often quoted. He said something along the lines of, "In war you kill them all, ALL of them, do not let them escape, they'll regroup and you'll have to fight them again". I think once Zelensky told Ukrainian citizens to arm themselves he gave the green light to have them seen as participants in the war.

Personally I don't think it was a bright move. Ukraine fatigue is setting in, come the winter it will be pretty entrenched. Russians are used to the cold and deprivation, the likes of the Germans aren't. They're already distancing themselves from all this, and those that could indirectly cause them hardship. We have seen how the EU in general respond when there's a crisis, with the Chinese Virus vaccinations. All for one and one for all suddenly became every man for himself.

Putin will prevail, the only discussion I see is how many needlessly die in Ukraine. The West are just haemorrhaging money and weapons in an ill thought out game of defiance, with Ukrainians as the pawns.
 
Chris Wilson said:
Russians are used to the cold and deprivation
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Im not sure you have been following, but when we had the cold snaps earlier this year russian soliders were freezing to death in some parts. They arent being sent with the right equipment for fighting in optimal conditions, let alone when the weather turns, the HIMARS systems have dramatically reduced the Russians most effective playbook (smash it with artillery) and the Russian advance has slowed to a snails pace while all the time Ukraine is getting more equipment, more training, more intel, more money, more aid etc.
 
Chris Wilson said:
There was a famous American General whose name escapes me right now, and was often quoted. He said something along the lines of, "In war you kill them all, ALL of them, do not let them escape, they'll regroup and you'll have to fight them again". I think once Zelensky told Ukrainian citizens to arm themselves he gave the green light to have them seen as participants in the war.

Personally I don't think it was a bright move. Ukraine fatigue is setting in, come the winter it will be pretty entrenched. Russians are used to the cold and deprivation, the likes of the Germans aren't. They're already distancing themselves from all this, and those that could indirectly cause them hardship. We have seen how the EU in general respond when there's a crisis, with the Chinese Virus vaccinations. All for one and one for all suddenly became every man for himself.

Putin will prevail, the only discussion I see is how many needlessly die in Ukraine. The West are just haemorrhaging money and weapons in an ill thought out game of defiance, with Ukrainians as the pawns.
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How to post a **** take 101
 
Jester* said:
As greater levels of advanced MLRS get delivered to Ukraine, I do wonder if we will see greater holes in Russian effectiveness appear.

No air superiority over Ukraine, poor reconnaissance abilities (as shown by needing the drones from Iran posted earlier), limited accurate counter battery ability, and also what are the imaging capabilities from Russian satellites like? If all HIMARS systems are still in action, then the more that get delivered the pain will only increase.

Will this eventually force the stalemate so that ceasfire/peace talks can start? Or will the advantage be such that Ukraine eventually starts retaking ground.
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Peace talks can never happen. Russia can’t be trusted and so no agreement can be reached. Ukraine needs to keep going until the land is back and we need to equip and train them with all the best equipment to do so.
 
Chris Wilson said:
There was a famous American General whose name escapes me right now, and was often quoted. He said something along the lines of, "In war you kill them all, ALL of them, do not let them escape, they'll regroup and you'll have to fight them again". I think once Zelensky told Ukrainian citizens to arm themselves he gave the green light to have them seen as participants in the war.

Personally I don't think it was a bright move. Ukraine fatigue is setting in, come the winter it will be pretty entrenched. Russians are used to the cold and deprivation, the likes of the Germans aren't. They're already distancing themselves from all this, and those that could indirectly cause them hardship. We have seen how the EU in general respond when there's a crisis, with the Chinese Virus vaccinations. All for one and one for all suddenly became every man for himself.

Putin will prevail, the only discussion I see is how many needlessly die in Ukraine. The West are just haemorrhaging money and weapons in an ill thought out game of defiance, with Ukrainians as the pawns.
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Don’t worry, we’ve got no shortage of money or equipment. The Russians meanwhile seem to be losing plenty with little way to replace it. Ukrainians are happy to fight the good fight to reclaim their homes. Putin can’t win, all he can do is inflict increasing harm on himself and his country.
 
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