Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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dowie said:
I think the suspension of reinforcements is likely for one reason, the reinforcements don't want to go - they're going to have a serious morale problem right now, and plenty of infighting, people for and against etc.. ergo my comment that Putin might not have any choice here.
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This is very significant if this the case. Russia is about to lose this war and could be surrendering soon.

 
Uther said:
It only ever hits home just how big Ukraine is when I see pics like this.
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It's laughable to think that the Russian Officials/Military thought they could seize a country the size of France and Germany combined with a population of nearly 45 million with a force of 190'000 !, Obviously with recent revelations of how corrupt the state is from the top to the bottom it was a foregone conclusion.
 
delta0 said:
This is very significant if this the case. Russia is about to lose this war and could be surrendering soon.
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The alternative is that Russia is planning to escalate with nuclear, and don't want to send more troops into the fallout

EVH5150 said:
It's laughable to think that the Russian Officials/Military thought they could seize a country the size of France and Germany combined with a population of nearly 45 million with a force of 190'000 !, Obviously with recent revelations of how corrupt the state is from the top to the bottom it was a foregone conclusion.
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Russia has a population 3x the size of Ukraine. I could easily see how they thought invading a much smaller country would be a walk in the park for them after the little resistance they faced in Georgia and Crimea (wrongly thought, of course).
 
ci_newman said:
The alternative is that Russia is planning to escalate with nuclear, and don't want to send more troops into the fallout
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Whilst possible the repercussions of this would put Russia in an impossible situation. Even China would disown them if they haven’t already. Economically it will be completely game over for them. It will likely result in a civil war and Russia breaking up.
 
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delta0 said:
Whilst possible the repercussions of this would put Russia in an impossible situation. Even China would disown them if they haven’t already. Economically it will be completely game over for them. It will likely result in a civil war and Russia breaking up.
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I think that would depend on whether they used tactical nuclear or dirty bombs. Tactical nuclear, I'm not sure the West or China would interfere if it was a miltary target.

The current situation is either a) Russia pulling back with the intent of withdrawing permanently, b) Russia pulling back before deploying seriously heavy weaponary.

Putin strikes me as a cornered rabid dog and history shows that soviet leaders don't survive looking weak.
 
ci_newman said:
and history shows that soviet leaders don't survive looking weak.
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Which is concerning whatever way you look at it. Though Putin has a grip on power in a way that is not easily shifted.

EVH5150 said:
It's laughable to think that the Russian Officials/Military thought they could seize a country the size of France and Germany combined with a population of nearly 45 million with a force of 190'000 !, Obviously with recent revelations of how corrupt the state is from the top to the bottom it was a foregone conclusion.
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From the force composition in the early days they obviously thought most of the fighting would be pummelling isolated instances of hold outs into submission.

One of the problems seems to be that corrupt officials and other pro-Russian elements in Ukraine vastly overstated their power and influence to keep the money coming from Russia - when it came to it they simply didn't have the means to take control of events.
 
ci_newman said:
I think that would depend on whether they used tactical nuclear or dirty bombs. Tactical nuclear, I'm not sure the West or China would interfere if it was a miltary target.

The current situation is either a) Russia pulling back with the intent of withdrawing permanently, b) Russia pulling back before deploying seriously heavy weaponary.

Putin strikes me as a cornered rabid dog and history shows that soviet leaders don't survive looking weak.
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I don’t think they would interfere directly but economically Russia would be completely excluded from the world. It would be widely condemned.
 
I'm a bit wary of being over optimistic about these recent Ukrainian victories, but I thought this was a great piece on the recent advances from The Atlantic. tldr; The feint to the South was a tactical masterstroke.
 
Mr Jack said:
I'm a bit wary of being over optimistic about these recent Ukrainian victories, but I thought this was a great piece on the recent advances from The Atlantic. tldr; The feint to the South was a tactical masterstroke.
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Yeah me too if I'm honest, I know there's a lot of flag waving and chest thumping at "Western Weapons" help liberate parts of Ukraine but it feels like Russia is up to something
 
chrismscotland said:
Yeah me too if I'm honest, I know there's a lot of flag waving and chest thumping at "Western Weapons" help liberate parts of Ukraine but it feels like Russia is up to something
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I don't think Russia is up to anything. I think they stuffed up and are getting battered in North East Ukraine right now. But, for all the celebration about recently liberated territory, Russia is still holding onto a large area of Ukraine and still has a lot it hasn't thrown into Ukraine. Historically, most wars ebb and flow, and there are plenty of examples of a run of victories turning into an overall defeat.

I hope I'm wrong, and this really is the start of a total collapse of the Russian forces in Ukraine, but I think it's more likely to give way to more months of attritional horror.
 
Mr Jack said:
I don't think Russia is up to anything. I think they stuffed up and are getting battered in North East Ukraine right now. But, for all the celebration about recently liberated territory, Russia is still holding onto a large area of Ukraine and still has a lot it hasn't thrown into Ukraine. Historically, most wars ebb and flow, and there are plenty of examples of a run of victories turning into an overall defeat.

I hope I'm wrong, and this really is the start of a total collapse of the Russian forces in Ukraine, but I think it's more likely to give way to more months of attritional horror.
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You're perpetuating the 'they haven't sent in their best troops/gear/hardware' myth. They are scrapping the bottom of the barrel now.
 
Rroff said:
Which is concerning whatever way you look at it. Though Putin has a grip on power in a way that is not easily shifted.



From the force composition in the early days they obviously thought most of the fighting would be pummelling isolated instances of hold outs into submission.

One of the problems seems to be that corrupt officials and other pro-Russian elements in Ukraine vastly overstated their power and influence to keep the money coming from Russia - when it came to it they simply didn't have the means to take control of events.
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this will make a great documentary one day
 
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