They are withdrawing, and at a rate of knots...
Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
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Soldato
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Why not? He invaded in 2014 and nothing happened. The EU, UK and US weren't interested in actively supporting Ukraine. This time he gambled that Biden wouldn't be interested and Germany and other EU nations wouldn't be either because they want his gas. He gambled and he lost big. He also expected to take the country in a matter of days/weeks and then it would have been a fait accompli. Again he gambled and lost.
I just don't get why lots of people in this thread think nukes are going to start flying. He isn't suicidal, he has children and he values his position because the alternative is death. He can end this at any time and call it what ever he likes back home and the people will buy it. If he nukes Ukraine the West will have to retaliate and will likely wipe out Russian military assets in Ukraine and then add Ukraine to NATO. Russia will have not only lost but will be a pariah for decades to come. There is no way back from nukes and Putin knows this as do his generals and his backers in Moscow. I'll be amazed if he uses nukes.
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Soldato
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They are withdrawing, and at a rate of knots...
We measure the ones swimming away in knots, the rest get miles.
Soldato
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Largely agree with all that, the only thing we can't really predict is all the hard-liners behind the scenes, the ones who are frothing for a direct confrontation with the west - I wonder how much of a say they have or whether there are really just marginal voices.
Soldato
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Ill have £20 on falling out of a window.
By now, even the hard liners have to realize their military isn't the juggernaut they thought it was.
Man of Honour
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I bet he's terrified of high floors
Stems massively on several factors:
-How rational his thinking is.
-How much he believes the righteous fervour he has increasingly been coming out with.
-If he is backed into a corner.
-Level of compliance in chain of command should he ever give such an order.
Some of that lately is hard to tell how much is for appearances. In my opinion demonstrative use of a nuclear weapon intended for the intimidation factor is moderately high - with the hope the West backs down, the battlefield use of nuclear weapons low but unlikely and strategic use very very low - but if his back was to the wall IMO all bets are off.
Wow she is insufferable, just looking at her recent posts about accusing the US of destroying nord stream...
Anyone with half a brain cell would recognize that if the US did blow up nord stream then Russia would be blowing an absolute gasket publicly over it... the only reason they are not because it is them that did it... can claim they didn't and gain plausible deniability, so they don't have to switch the taps off come winter as its already "oopsied".
Associate
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That early defence of Ukraine has been key for them - had they crumbled, there would have been no NATO/Western aid and little support - it would've been reluctantly accepted by the world.
I agree that he thought it would be Crimea again, they were hugely confident before the invasion, they are not feeling so confident now.
I did think Ukraine would put up a spirited defence and hurt Russia and make them seriously think how much more painful it would be go up against NATO, but expected Ukraine to be pushed out until the point there wasn't enough country left to continue the war. I really expected Russia to dominate the Air, sweep away the air defence missiles and then use air to support the ground troops to win - they seemed to have all the ingrediants.
When you look at how the west has fought airpower has been a huge factor - it is oddly missing from this campaign.
He makes up **** all the time. Just GTFO and declare victory.
She is just a vacuous attention seeker who doesn't care, or can't comprehend, that she is capitalising on other's misery to stir things up.
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Soldato
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but his back isn't against a wall. I mean if Ukraine managed to take Crimea it might be but he can tell the public anything he wants. Do you think he really believes the West would back down if he did use a nuke in Ukraine? He has to know we couldn't or it just shows that using a nuke to get your way works and comes with zero consequences other than some sanctions.
Now if Ukraine started taking Russian territory, true Russian territory, then maybe he would but they aren't going to do that.
Drones have been a massive player in this war. Even now with all the winged death flying about, the store bought drone dropping grenades on tanks and troops trying to unload munitions. This is an infantry war, up close and personal. It's not the war from a distance of Iraq etc.
"Spicy tea" is also a good option.
Apparently there was literally Russian leadership booking restaurants in Ukraine and so on for after the invasion date seemingly under the impression it would mostly be a replacement of the government and some isolated fighting.
From various articles I've read it seems Russia doesn't have the institutional teaching, knowledge, experience, mindset or structure for massive, complex layered, combined arms operations with their focus over the years on smaller scale insurgency stuff or total war with the West and less so anything in between.
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They are withdrawing, and at a rate of knots...
On one of the news pieces I saw today, they interviewed a Ukrainian soldier who sounded disappointed - said he came to fight Russians but he can't because they are running away faster than we advance
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