Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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*UK Sanctions Target Russia’s Theft of Ukrainian Grain, Advanced Military Technology, and Remaining Revenue Sources
*UK Sanctions 86 Individuals and Entities – Freezing the Assets of Those Involved with Key Revenue Streams
*UK: Introducing Designations of 9 Organisations Connected to Russia’s State-Owned Nuclear Energy Company, Rosatom
*UK: Igor Altushkin, the Billionaire Oligarch Who Owns the Russian Copper Company, Has Been Sanctioned
*UK Foreign Secretary Confirms That Russia’s Sovereign Assets Will Remain Immobilised Until Russia Agrees to Pay for the Damage It Has Caused in Ukraine - Statement
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...tary-technology-and-remaining-revenue-sources

*Ukraine Deputy DefMin: Russian Forces Are Trying to Recapture Land Lost Around Bakhmut, Kyiv’s Forces Are Repelling Those Attacks
*Ukraine Deputy DefMin: Russian Forces Have Gained Some Ground Inside City of Bakhmut
*Ukraine Deputy DefMin: Russian Forces Do Not Control Bakhmut, Fighting Continues
 
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steve45 said:
So I'm not the only one wondering what these "legitimate security concerns" are...
I'd like to see this phrase quantified into genuine valid concerns rather than just a phrase thrown around!
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Good luck with that.
Hes just being a parrot to what someone else has said.
It sounds good right? Sounds plausible right?
Problem is its BS
 
Interesting analysis on the Kinzhal missile, what it is, examines the claims around if Patriot really did intercept it and looks like at the Russian claims that the debris shown online was a Russian glide bombs not a Kinzhal missile.

Watch from 3:50 onwards as the first part is mostly self congratulatory clap trap.


TLDW
- Kinzhal although fast is really just a cruise missile with a ballistic missile launcher used to accelerate the warhead to hypersonic speeds and lacks any of the maneuverability that a genuine hypersonic missile.
- Patriot from the 1st Gulf War was designed to intercept Soviet aircraft not ballistic missiles and only intercepted around 25% of Iraq's missile fired at Isreal. It was improved and developed and now has a greater then >95% chance of interception
- The video appearing online of Klitschko showing the debris of a downed Kinzhal missile has been cited by Russian trolls as being Ukrainian lies as the nose cone a different shape to that used by Kinzhal
- The argument falls apart because the what's shown isn't the nose cone but a part of the nose cone internal assembly and closer analysis of the debris fits that of a known downed Kinzhal missiles (previously from a failed launch)
 
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Freddie1980 said:
Watch from 3:50 onwards as the first part is mostly self congratulatory clap trap.
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I hate the way there seems to be increasing number of videos like that where dead space in the visual part is filled with barely or not even related video segments - I suspect most of the video production was "outsourced" with a few key words (EDIT: Actually it isn't the worst for it - skipping through I happened on several of those parts but overall it is mostly related stock roll).
 
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Allegedly Ukraine have shot down at least 1 warplane with the patriot, but it doesn't state any details so it's source: trust me bro for now.

What is the range like on the Patriots?

I think their main aim is anti-missile defence, but nice to have if it also shoots down planes that stray too close.
 
HungryHippos said:
Allegedly Ukraine have shot down at least 1 warplane with the patriot, but it doesn't state any details so it's source: trust me bro for now.

What is the range like on the Patriots?

I think their main aim is anti-missile defence, but nice to have if it also shoots down planes that stray too close.
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I don't believe Russia has been flying anything aircraft wise that close to Kyiv for awhile - the range depends on the target - something like a TU-95 it could probably just about down it if it approached the border in Belarus.
 
Turn said:
www.reuters.com

NATO reaches back to Cold War past with first major defense plans

NATO will step back to the future at its Vilnius summit in July, with leaders set to approve thousands of pages of secret military plans.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

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I think this is likely. I don’t know if they will get to a stage of having something like a DMZ but it will probably be an ongoing war for a very long time but much smaller. It would be a way for Russia to stop Ukraine from ever joining NATO.
 
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delta0 said:
It would be a way for Russia to stop Ukraine from ever joining NATO.
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Whilst I dont see them retaking the the entireity of the occupied territory in the short/medium term, I do see scope for large gains in the near future. There is definitely the potential for this conflict to last a generation possibly in some form of quasi-stalemate buffer zone scenario, like Korea or Cyprus. Possibly policed by UN(Russia would likely never agree...) or some form of alliance? Either that or Russia calls a ceasefire, goes back to the drawing board and tries again further down the line.

One thing that will likely be extremely long lasting will be the westward swing of influence in Ukraine. It will take generations to repair/restore any semblance of trust or respect.
Also, lets face it Ukraine would never make it into NATO whilst Orban runs Hungary even if it had territorial integrity. Orban is fully under the thumb.
 
steve45 said:
Either that or Russia calls a ceasefire, goes back to the drawing board and tries again further down the line.
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Which is exactly the scenario that Ukraine and the west don't want to see happen, hence the conflict continues and no cease fire will be agreed whilst Russia occupies Ukrainian territory.

Any cold war-esque standoff would only occur if Russia was effectively kicked out of Ukraine territory, and I'm not so sure that the Russian people and those in power would support a cold conflict where Russia has effectively gained nothing.

Putins own position may be under threat if Ukraine keep on reversing gains.
 
I don't think Ukraine will have as much of an issue pushing some Russian units back that some think
Once they breach the defences potentially they turn into traps for the Russians

I can't see many of those Russians wanting to fight to the death. Some sure, but the average conscript from Russia will be just the same as the average conscript would be if it was UK citizen forced to go to war in a foreign land, and then under supplied with food, equipment etc.
Its not like the Russians we are talking about in many places are multi year battle hardened elite troops defending their own lands.

Fully kicking Russia out of Ukraine, that I am not so sure about. But breaking through and grabbing some big chunks back I am sure will happen.
 
Mercenary Keyboard Warrior said:
Fully kicking Russia out of Ukraine, that I am not so sure about. But breaking through and grabbing some big chunks back I am sure will happen.
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For me this depends on two things:

Constant supply of good quality material and equipment into Ukrainian hands
Russian depletion of stockpiles

The western tanks and equipment should be superior to whatever the Russians are fielding. Russian stockpiles of equipment they can throw at the problem will run out and they'll need to pivot manufacturing to more military equipment to make up for it.

I'm sure Russia can keep on drawing on supply of stock it has for a while yet, but eventually it will run out, if they're not making tanks/ammo etc fast enough they'll hit issues.

The biggest issue on the Ukraine side of thing I think is manpower, they have a lot of support but they simply don't have as many people to throw at the conflict.
 
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HungryHippos said:
For me this depends on two things:

Constant supply of good quality material and equipment into Ukrainian hands
Russian depletion of stockpiles

The western tanks and equipment should be superior to whatever the Russians are fielding. Russian stockpiles of equipment they can throw at the problem will run out and they'll need to pivot manufacturing to more military equipment to make up for it.

I'm sure Russia can keep on drawing on supply of stock it has for a while yet, but eventually it will run out, if they're not making tanks/ammo etc fast enough they'll hit issues.

The biggest issue on the Ukraine side of thing I think is manpower, they have a lot of support but they simply don't have as many people to throw at the conflict.
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Sorry should have clarified I meant fully kick Russia out this coming summer.
If the west keeps up the support I can see it within 2-3 summers.

Although thats also assuming Russia do not find more sources of arms. Oil for arms to places like India...
Iran would be a good source of arms as well but I am not so sure swaps for oil will work ;)
Russia could go full potato though and move the country to an official war footing. Despite our lols at a lot of their equipment if they did fully mobilise they would potentially swarm Ukraine.
If you don't value human life, as Putrid appears not to, then they have the raw numbers available.
 
Mercenary Keyboard Warrior said:
Russia could go full potato though and move the country to an official war footing. Despite our lols at a lot of their equipment if they did fully mobilise they would potentially swarm Ukraine.
If you don't value human life, as Putrid appears not to, then they have the raw numbers available.
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Yes they would not only need the people but also equipment for them, if arming a bunch of people with basic weapons were even enough?

They still need training etc, and without heavy equipment they won't do much against f.ex the IFV's or tanks.

I think quality > quantity when it comes to soldiers, you still need to keep up some kind of economy as well even if on a war-footing.
 
*Zelenskiy: Will Meet Saudi Crown Prince on First-Ever Saudi Trip
*Zelenskiy: Priorities of Trip to Discuss Peace Formula, Protection of Muslim Community in Ukraine, Return of Political Prisoners From Crimea
 
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Grim5 said:
So a few days ago 3 Russian helicopters and 2 jets were shot down, some of them shot down inside Russia.

Initially we blamed Russian air defence, but it now looks like Ukraine could have used Patriot to make those intercepts

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I know they have 2 Patriot installations but I don't think they have the range unless they've moved one up closer - though possible the actual hit was over Ukraine and by the time the plane came down it was over Russia.
 
HungryHippos said:
Yes they would not only need the people but also equipment for them, if arming a bunch of people with basic weapons were even enough?

They still need training etc, and without heavy equipment they won't do much against f.ex the IFV's or tanks.

I think quality > quantity when it comes to soldiers, you still need to keep up some kind of economy as well even if on a war-footing.
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Its does 100%, again especially if you value human life.
If not just look at for example Bahmut
Once it gets urban the benefit of higher tech loses some advantage. As does training in some situations.

Plus if they do get pushed back its one absolutely massive border to try to protect.
If Putin wants this to drag on for years he will be able to.

There is a quote I forget, but its along the lines of "quantity infers a quality all of its own."
 
HungryHippos said:
Which is exactly the scenario that Ukraine and the west don't want to see happen, hence the conflict continues and no cease fire will be agreed whilst Russia occupies Ukrainian territory.

Any cold war-esque standoff would only occur if Russia was effectively kicked out of Ukraine territory, and I'm not so sure that the Russian people and those in power would support a cold conflict where Russia has effectively gained nothing.

Putins own position may be under threat if Ukraine keep on reversing gains.
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This is one of my concerns - Putin would need to sell the notion domestically they were defending against NATO aggression and at war with the whole of NATO and the only way to do that is to engineer some kind of provocation.

HungryHippos said:
Yes they would not only need the people but also equipment for them, if arming a bunch of people with basic weapons were even enough?

They still need training etc, and without heavy equipment they won't do much against f.ex the IFV's or tanks.

I think quality > quantity when it comes to soldiers, you still need to keep up some kind of economy as well even if on a war-footing.
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They are moving so slowly when it comes to turning the country socially, industrially as well as militarily to a war footing as things go events are out pacing that transition. But they do still have large quantities of small arms and older IFVs i.e. MT-LBs, etc. none of which takes much training to use in a basic capacity - one of the things people seem to misunderstand when it comes to this stuff yes there is a lot of trash and decrepit equipment but a percentage of it is functional stuff and that still makes up a significant amount overall.
 
Mercenary Keyboard Warrior said:
Its does 100%, again especially if you value human life.
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It's not just valuing human life, it's also the cost of training and the loss of experience that the death of quality solders brings.

With combat, real life experience is hard to get as there aren't that many wars fought these days.

If Russians charge head-first into entrenched positions to die then any experience they had goes with them.

Same is true for both sides, that's why you want to keep your soldiers alive, dead soldiers can't do anything.
 
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