Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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alchal said:
You assume those leaders care about thier people dying, which they do not, also they will spin it so it's as much if not in entirely Ukraine/NATO's fault.
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Unfortunately you are right - I think something people should get their mind around is that to someone like Putin we are insignificant and he'd absolutely nuke the UK in a heartbeat if needed to get his way and if he could get away with it. We need to be far more mindful in the future to protect ourselves and our children :s

Harlequin said:
IISS `The Military Balance` 2023, page 184, states the entire Russian Ground Forces total 550,000 non conscripts. So the War in Ukraine is draining everything they have
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Not really sure what the point you are making is there.
 
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Christopher Steele was on the news the other night, saying very much what @Rroff has been saying for ages, that it's not the Wests commitment to Ukraine that is the issue but the lack of ramping up manufacturing to the level that's required, as per his tweet recently


The main thing I took from it is that if this war does grind on and become a pure war of attrition then Ukraine could end up losing unless we step up even more.
 
Harlequin said:
Russia has committed the majority of its standing army to ukraine, vastly more than the 20% you said
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The 20% figure I mentioned was the drawdown from Russian forces stationed in South Ossetia and Abkhazia to redeploy to Ukraine (it may be a little higher now as the information I was going on is a few months old now), along with around 10% of the local forces from the breakaway regions. But even so the depletion from the Russian standing army isn't quite as high as the perception people get - for example pre war Russian ground forces were ~380K not including conscripts and there were a lot of forces deployed to Ukraine not included in the ground forces size such as Rosgvardia and people vastly underestimate how many of the forces used by Russia were essentially conscripts mobilised in 2 out-of-band waves before the war - not sure exact numbers now but the first one was ~4K and the second in the 10s of thousands.
 
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Freakbro said:
Christopher Steele was on the news the other night, saying very much what @Rroff has been saying for ages, that it's not the Wests commitment to Ukraine that is the issue but the lack of ramping up manufacturing to the level that's required, as per his tweet recently


The main thing I took from it is that if this war does grind on and become a pure war of attrition then Ukraine could end up losing unless we step up even more.
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Are the Russian standing army the guys on the 3rd line waiting to shoot the conscripts in the back if they refuse to shoot the prisoners, non-white and local troops on the front lines if they try to retreat.

I expect losses from those ranks are comparatively low.
 
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Bug One said:
Are the Russian standing army the guys on the 3rd line waiting to shoot the conscripts in the back if they refuse to shoot the prisoners, non-white and local troops on the front lines if they try to retreat.

I expect losses from those ranks are comparatively low.
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Regular army has been fairly heavily engaged - forces such as the VDV and 1st guards took high losses with some units seeing as high as 90% depletion from killed and wounded.
 
Rroff said:
The 20% figure I mentioned was the drawdown from Russian forces stationed in South Ossetia and Abkhazia to redeploy to Ukraine (it may be a little higher now as the information I was going on is a few months old now), along with around 10% of the local forces from the breakaway regions. But even so the depletion from the Russian standing army isn't quite as high as the perception people get - for example pre war Russian ground forces were ~380K not including conscripts and there were a lot of forces deployed to Ukraine not included in the ground forces size such as Rosgvardia and people vastly underestimate how many of the forces used by Russia were essentially conscripts mobilised in 2 out-of-band waves before the war - not sure exact numbers now but the first one was ~4K and the second in the 10s of thousands.
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Under Russian law BTG`s cannot be equipped with conscripts:

www.popularmechanics.com

Composed of Tanks, Infantry, and Artillery, Russia's Battalion Tactical Groups Will Tackle War With Ukraine

Composed of tanks, infantry, and artillery, battalion tactical groups will lead the invasion of Ukrainian territory.
www.popularmechanics.com www.popularmechanics.com

However last year Russia did admit that at first, conscripts went over on day 1, but were withdrawn.

So the 110 > 120 BTG which entered Ukraine (out of the 170 > https://tass.com/defense/1324461 they had in total ) were the bulk of the professional soldiers Russia had

According to:

www.graphicnews.com

UKRAINE: Russia’s battalion tactical groups infographic

April 19, 2022 - Russia has sent reinforcements to eastern Ukraine, adding 11 so-called battalion tactical groups (BTGs) and bringing its total to around 76, down from some 120 at the start of the war. infographic
www.graphicnews.com www.graphicnews.com

By the end of the first stage of the war, 38 BTG was combat ineffective (more than 40% dead or equipment destroyed) and a further 22 were under reconstitution.

Russia doesnt have a large pool of reserves left, hence the up to any age men for conscription, and abandoning the use of BTG, so conscripts can gon on the front lines

www.forbes.com

To Replenish Its Army In Ukraine, Russia Plans To Strip Its Training Units. It Can Only Do This Once.

Russia can replenish its army in Ukraine, restoring it roughly to the numerical strength—if not the technological sophistication—it possessed on day one of the wider war. But it can only replenish the army once.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
 
Harlequin said:
Under Russian law BTG`s cannot be equipped with conscripts:
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Russian law *snigger* - reality is a large number were essentially conscripts - a lot had only been in the army a few weeks and "offered" a contract under pressure. People seem to have quickly forgotten all those "training" camps in Belarus.

EDIT: By large number I mean there was a sizeable compliment there who'd been raised in out-of-bound mobilisation pre-war, not the majority were that case.

Harlequin said:
Russia doesnt have a large pool of reserves left, hence the up to any age men for conscription, and abandoning the use of BTG, so conscripts can gon on the front lines
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As has been the case throughout this war you can't necessarily apply Western logic here - they are emptying out a lot of the poorer far east regions and the likes first - upping the age for conscription is as much about draining those out more than it is necessarily an indication of their overall reserve pool situation. Many of the richer/western regions are relatively untouched yet.
 
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Rroff said:
Russian law *snigger* - reality is a large number were essentially conscripts - a lot had only been in the army a few weeks and "offered" a contract under pressure. People seem to have quickly forgotten all those "training" camps in Belarus.

EDIT: By large number I mean there was a sizeable compliment there who'd been raised in out-of-bound mobilisation pre-war, not the majority were that case.
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The UK can field, tommorrow, 18,400 or so Infantry out of an Army size of 73,000. UK has 157 operational CR2 in 3 regiments , each has a crew of 4, along with recce and support - RAC has about 4000 troops. Artillery is another 5500 , and AAC is another 1500. Thats it, thats the fighting strength of the British Army. Other branches are support roles. When Russia went to a professional Army, they followed a similar pattern of draw down. They woefully mis reprented Ukraines will to defend itself, and it trained troops were chewed through. Now its conscript army back to Soviety war doctrine
 
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