Something I find a bit odd is that the way Prigozhin has acted since the insurrection seems particularly dumb/naive compared to the planning which went into it, though it makes sense if to Prigozhin his beef was with the army heads and not Putin and didn't appreciate that Putin won't distinguish between the two. Prigozhin's insurrection was played smart, up to a point, he had forces leap frogging ahead, air-defences in play against the expected response, instead of building a big crowd and hoping it would swell (though that was part of the tactic) as it closed in on the seat of power as many coops do he used the larger force as a distraction with smaller teams already in place to capitalise on and/or disrupt the response.
If he'd planned to go all the way I think he'd have probably succeeded as the Russian authorities don't seem to have planned for it or known quite how to react and took a long time to get their act together.
I also think a possibility is that there is someone with power and influence in Russia who was protecting him and if he'd just slunk off and abided by the agreement(s) he'd have probably been left alone but he kept on going back to Russia, kept on trying to get involved with affairs, etc.
Or there is still something we are missing, though I suspect Putin bumping him off is a far more likely explanation than some larger theatre/conspiracy.
But coming back to what you were saying - it was played smart last time, so I couldn't entirely count them out the game but I suspect the people behind that planning are likely now deceased and Wagner seems to have been stripped of a lot of the hardware which enabled it last time.
