Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Don't disagree that the west needs to up their game, but Russia cant just keep mobilising and conscripting as eventually they will reach people who live in Moscow and St Petersburg and that will create all sorts of domestic issues, also what is Russia going to arm them, and supply them with? They are perilously short as it is and can't simply mobilise 400k without the means to outfit them.

China can supply plenty of night vision scoped hunting rifles. Class 4 protective plates etc
(The hunting rifles look a lot like a semi auto assault rifle )

The question is going to come down to will more than anything.
The West is ramping up most of what matters.

From the analysis I posted up yesterday it seems the West needs to also get with what Ukraine need to fight to the best of their abilities.
Unless we are going to give them the tools for air supremacy then give them the best tools they need for trench and spec ops etc that they are doing well with.

 

[jigger]

Don't disagree that the west needs to up their game, but Russia cant just keep mobilising and conscripting as eventually they will reach people who live in Moscow and St Petersburg and that will create all sorts of domestic issues, also what is Russia going to arm them, and supply them with? They are perilously short as it is and can't simply mobilise 400k without the means to outfit them.

Russia raised an army of 32 million for WW2. But Russia can only raise a small force before NATO raise a larger force.

 

[rumple9]

That's why they are trying to buy arms from North Korea. They are also offering high salaries and citizenship to foreigners

 

[Rroff]

Don't disagree that the west needs to up their game, but Russia cant just keep mobilising and conscripting as eventually they will reach people who live in Moscow and St Petersburg and that will create all sorts of domestic issues, also what is Russia going to arm them, and supply them with? They are perilously short as it is and can't simply mobilise 400k without the means to outfit them.

They still have the means to ramp production up of basic equipment, though it all seems a mess and uncoordinated - they've put a redesigned AK-12 rifle into production for example to become the new service rifle but currently production is only about 12K units a year and those who've received the initial batches have pointed out a lot of quality issues - but they will likely improve on that with time.

China has recently succeeded in producing 7nm chips for production - albeit with a lot of limitations currently and so far needs hand re-tooling for each design using it - but it will likely enable Russia to work around Western sanctions and their own semi-conductor industry being many decades in the past and enable them to produce advanced munitions they otherwise would struggle with producing in numbers.

It is an unorganised mess but they are slowly making progress.

How people will take it when they start having to mobilise numbers from the richer regions is a huge wildcard and something Putin obviously has concerns about but so far the Russian public seem to have huge apathy towards kicking back against Putin even when the war touches their lives.

 

[jigger]

That's why they are trying to buy arms from North Korea. They are also offering high salaries and citizenship to foreigners

If the Russians throw in free testosterone and the Tate brothers I’m sure @Roar87 will join his comrade's

 

[Rroff]

From the analysis I posted up yesterday it seems the West needs to also get with what Ukraine need to fight to the best of their abilities.
Unless we are going to give them the tools for air supremacy then give them the best tools they need for trench and spec ops etc that they are doing well with.

I'd like to see us really ramp up those Supacat HMT based offerings - it is a great platform for medium range air-defences like the improvised AMRAAM launch platform for giving protection against helicopter threats, could be used as a platform for anti-drone systems like the CORTEX Typhon, etc. every Ukrainian armed forces grouping from company level upwards should be able to operate with coverage from these kind of offerings.

Far too much of the innovation Ukraine needs ends up like https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2...rone-system-says-about-us-aid-ukraine/389157/

EDIT: Obviously minefield clearing is a huge issue for them currently but that is far less of a problem if they have the ability to suppress Russian defences with artillery sophistication (i.e. lots more mobile rapid to deploy artillery and the ammo to back it up) or having air supremacy - but IMO that is a lot more complex than people think and won't be solved by just giving Ukraine an F-16 fleet.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

I'd like to see us really ramp up those Supacat HMT based offerings - it is a great platform for medium range air-defences like the improvised AMRAAM launch platform for giving protection against helicopter threats, could be used as a platform for anti-drone systems like the CORTEX Typhon, etc. every Ukrainian armed forces grouping from company level upwards should be able to operate with coverage from these kind of offerings.

Far too much of the innovation Ukraine needs ends up like https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2...rone-system-says-about-us-aid-ukraine/389157/

Yep thats very true.
We are all of course not in the "at war so forget any BS just do it" position ourselves.

 

[Sythe79]

Russia raised an army of 32 million for WW2. But Russia can only raise a small force before NATO raise a larger force.

it helps when you can forcibly enlist millions from occupied territories along the way

times have changed, do you think Germany could raise an army of 10 million now ? or Britain without utterly destroying the economy of the country for decades to come in record time.

Russia actually has a pretty small and declining population for the size of the country to actually function properly, and their actual loses of fighting age men is more like a couple of million if you include all the ones that have run away to be internet tough guys in free countries.

That's not to say they can't keep pumping numbers into Ukraine, but I think some people are overestimating just how many.

 

[Roar87]

Russia raised an army of 32 million for WW2. But Russia can only raise a small force before NATO raise a larger force.

NATO isn't going to do anything unless Russian troops start approaching our borders, and the Russian army is currently pretty static in Eastern Ukraine, what fantasy land are you living in?

 

[Roar87]

Problem is unless the West step things up it is a war of attrition Ukraine can't win. Russia might have lost a lot of stuff but they still have an available manpower pool far in excess of Ukraine, Russia can still grow far more into this war depending on how far they are prepared to mobilise and right now Putin looks like he'll go as far as it takes whatever the cost.

Yep. At least one poster in here is living on planet Earth.

 

[jigger]

NATO isn't going to do anything unless Russian troops start approaching our borders, and the Russian army is currently pretty static in Eastern Ukraine, what fantasy land are you living in?

If Russia start building a sizeable force in Ukraine NATO will change posture.

 

[ubersonic]

Russia raised an army of 32 million for WW2. But Russia can only raise a small force before NATO raise a larger force.

Slight correction: The USSR raised an army of 32 million for WW2.

I doubt Estonians, Latvians and even Belarusians will be too enthusiastic about joining the Russian army, and I'm not 100% but I don't think Ukrainians will be too interested either

 

[Roar87]

If Russia start building a sizeable force in Ukraine NATO will change posture.

Okay? What relevance does that have?

 

[bingham67]

Scary thing is if for example Russia was to take Ukraine your have nut jobs who Putin dont control shelling over the borders. He cant control his army of animals now so this would happen down the line for sure.

We really need to ramp up and give Ukraine all that they need we cant have Russia taking a country and it resources a very dangerous prospect.

 

[Mr Jack]

Problem is unless the West step things up it is a war of attrition Ukraine can't win. Russia might have lost a lot of stuff but they still have an available manpower pool far in excess of Ukraine, Russia can still grow far more into this war depending on how far they are prepared to mobilise and right now Putin looks like he'll go as far as it takes whatever the cost.

It seems to me that a war of attrition favours Ukraine not Russia. Ukraine is being backed by an industrial base so vastly superior to anything Russia has that it's just not in the same league, and Russia can do absolutely nothing to touch it. Meanwhile Russia started this war with a broken and dysfunctional economy and a worse military. Nothing that's happened since has made any of that better.

Ukraine is replacing destroyed Soviet era tanks with superior Western vehicles. Lost artillery is replaced with equipment that has a higher rate of fire and longer range. Russia is regressing further and further as the war goes on, bringing ever more antique equipment to the frontline to replace the heavy losses of its first choice equipment.

That could change as Russia very slowly manages to develop its production capabilities, and Ukraine remains totally depend on the goodwill of allies. But, as it stands, the war swings towards Ukraine with time.

 

[jigger]

it helps when you can forcibly enlist millions from occupied territories along the way

times have changed, do you think Germany could raise an army of 10 million now ? or Britain without utterly destroying the economy of the country for decades to come in record time.

Russia actually has a pretty small and declining population for the size of the country to actually function properly, and their actual loses of fighting age men is more like a couple of million if you include all the ones that have run away to be internet tough guys in free countries.

That's not to say they can't keep pumping numbers into Ukraine, but I think some people are overestimating just how many.

Putins position is perilous. The economics are already a lost cause for the Russian people.

 

[Rroff]

it helps when you can forcibly enlist millions from occupied territories along the way

times have changed, do you think Germany could raise an army of 10 million now ? or Britain without utterly destroying the economy of the country for decades to come in record time.

Russia actually has a pretty small and declining population for the size of the country to actually function properly, and their actual loses of fighting age men is more like a couple of million if you include all the ones that have run away to be internet tough guys in free countries.

That's not to say they can't keep pumping numbers into Ukraine, but I think some people are overestimating just how many.

Russia can still raise an army into the millions though - even with the losses and currently already deployed, numbers who've fled the country, they still have about 40 million men and women who are fit to fight, obviously they can't deploy all of those without crashing their economy and while still able to keep producing the supplies for the war, etc. but if they persist down this road then many of the normal ways of things so many posters in this thread seem to depend on will break down - you'd see them bringing a lot of retired women back into running industry, etc. etc. and if desperate enough Putin would have no problems with conscripting children into the army, despite putting on a public image of being horrified about it.

I don't think people can see it yet but Russia is quickly approaching a situation where they've less and less to lose by staying on a war footing and going all in win or die.

 

[jigger]

Scary thing is if for example Russia was to take Ukraine your have nut jobs who Putin dont control shelling over the borders. He cant control his army of animals now so this would happen down the line for sure.

We really need to ramp up and give Ukraine all that they need we cant have Russia taking a country and it resources a very dangerous prospect.

It has to be measured as nobody wants to see the Ukrainians doing onto the Russian population as the Russians have done onto them.

 

[Rroff]

It seems to me that a war of attrition favours Ukraine not Russia. Ukraine is being backed by an industrial base so vastly superior to anything Russia has that it's just not in the same league, and Russia can do absolutely nothing to touch it. Meanwhile Russia started this war with a broken and dysfunctional economy and a worse military. Nothing that's happened since has made any of that better.

Ukraine is replacing destroyed Soviet era tanks with superior Western vehicles. Lost artillery is replaced with equipment that has a higher rate of fire and longer range. Russia is regressing further and further as the war goes on, bringing ever more antique equipment to the frontline to replace the heavy losses of its first choice equipment.

That could change as Russia very slowly manages to develop its production capabilities, and Ukraine remains totally depend on the goodwill of allies. But, as it stands, the war swings towards Ukraine with time.

The problem is the balance of fit man power - the West just isn't stepping up enough to stem the bleed and/or Ukraine's ability to get people trained up to use sufficiently advanced equipment to offset Russias numbers with less advanced equipment - eventually more equipment would be available than people to use it.

Russia is slowly turning around, and still has the potential to do so, the broken and dysfunctional situation with their military equipment - for example they were still firing missiles, albeit in dwindling numbers, of a type everyone was claiming they'd exhausted for ~6 months after they were supposedly out of them, and production to replace them ramped up twice as fast and now four times as fast as thought they'd be able to - albeit still a long way from being able to carry out massive strikes with them.

 

[jigger]

Russia can still raise an army into the millions though - even with the losses and currently already deployed, numbers who've fled the country, they still have about 40 million men and women who are fit to fight, obviously they can't deploy all of those without crashing their economy and while still able to keep producing the supplies for the war, etc. but if they persist down this road then many of the normal ways of things so many posters in this thread seem to depend on will break down - you'd see them bringing a lot of retired women back into running industry, etc. etc. and if desperate enough Putin would have no problems with conscripting children into the army, despite putting on a public image of being horrified about it.

I don't think people can see it yet but Russia is quickly approaching a situation where they've less and less to lose by staying on a war footing and going all in win or die.

If Valdolf wants to take on the world then so be it.