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*** The AMD RDNA 4 Rumour Mill ***

The main problem with RX 9xxx series launch is lack of the reference card to ancher the price to msrp.
Because that's worked so well with the Nvidia 50 series.
Which begs the question: why have AMD chosen not to contract with the AIBs to produce reference cards? Assuming that the AIBs would be interested in producing them that is....
I've been wondering that too. If they planned to, then scrapped it, then that would've been a decision made months ago.

It may be to keep AIBs onside and not screw them like Nvidia does.
 
yeah I draw the line, I managed to get a Sapphire Pure at £635. I think it was £600 on overclockers? So a tiny bit more is ok.

Still hasn't come into stock though :-( I don't know how good the iriver store (seller was themselves not a third party) is on "waiting for stock"
I've got an order in there too, They usually do ship much earlier - I had the same with a monitor last Black Friday, ETA was end of Jan but it shipped end of Nov, my order was in for about a week.
 
I think it is important to also consider that neither Nvidia or AMD can simply ramp up supply at this stage. TSMC wafer priority is at a premium and AMD can’t simply say “make us more GPUs”. It could take months before we see any stability in the market, it at all.

The gaming market takes up wafers that can be allocated to more profitable markets. I suspect AMD will be better placed to capitalise on this, but that also means gamers accepting (not to be confused with approving) the reality.

In order to see cheaper prices we need stock constantly coming in to the channel. So £50 over MSRP might be the best you can get and if you are holding out for a sub £500 9070, or sub £600 9070 XT you may have a long wait.
 
The truth is even Gibbo said this was going to happen. So anyone who got lucky at MSRP, well done. Anyone who got one for £629, slightly less well done but still decent.

Obviously everyone has their limits and their principles.
It's a sellers market, unfortunately. I managed to pick up a 7900XT for my son on Black Friday for £550. it then shot up in price, far higher than the pre Black Friday price. The 9070XTs that went for £580 were a decent price. I couldn't get one, but bagged a Nitro+ for £730. I paid £30 over the recommended price, but I've seen that it's now £720 on OCUK, which makes me feel better in a weird sort of way. I needed a GPU and couldn't wait for the next stock delivery, where the price could rise again, so I'm happy with my purchase. My old PC has gone to my youngest son and I had dusted off a 1660 Super to get my new PC up and running. the 9070XT is getting 130 FPS in Cyberpunk at 2560x1440... amazing performance compared to the slide show I played before :)
 
I think it is important to also consider that neither Nvidia or AMD can simply ramp up supply at this stage. TSMC wafer priority is at a premium and AMD can’t simply say “make us more GPUs”. It could take months before we see any stability in the market, it at all.

The gaming market takes up wafers that can be allocated to more profitable markets. I suspect AMD will be better placed to capitalise on this, but that also means gamers accepting (not to be confused with approving) the reality.

In order to see cheaper prices we need stock constantly coming in to the channel. So £50 over MSRP might be the best you can get and if you are holding out for a sub £500 9070, or sub £600 9070 XT you may have a long wait.
Plus you also have to consider contracts AMD and NVIDIA already have in place with businesses and governments for AI chips, datacenter, etc. they can’t just sideline the wafer allocation dedicated for these contracts and make a few gaming GPUs. Our GPUs are made from the scraps of those contracts. That is the harsh reality and I don’t think it will improve anytime soon. It’s not like TSMC can magically increase their 4nm production. Unfortunately it’s a sellers market now.
 
In order to see cheaper prices we need stock constantly coming in to the channel.
And for that to happen we need to see a decline in demand in other markets, like AI, EPYC, and data-centres in the short term for AMD.

In the longer term a decline in demand for Nvidia workstation cards and apple products, essentially everything that makes use of TSMC's cutting edge nodes.

e: Damn it i basically just said what @Minimalistic23 said, i never seem to learn that i should read more posts before hitting reply. Silly me, sorry @Minimalistic23 :o
 
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The plus side though, is based on what Gibbo, and others in the industry have said, is that RDNA4 stock, unlike Nvidia, IS coming.
Gibbo said the other day they've got multiple deliveries due over the coming weeks; and I've heard other retailers and industry insiders mirror that. The stock was never going to mirror the pent up demand, but unlike Nvidia, stock's coming, and fairly frequently.
This should mean that prices will normalise, and sooner, rather than later, everyone who really wants one should be able to get a card. The fact stock keeps appearing will hopefully put scalpers off too, as it'll make it hard for them to make money beyond the initial run; and as stock becomes more prevalant, retailers and AIBs will start to compete more.

The Nvidia/COVID style situation only really continues when the stock never catches up, but it sounds like AMD genuinely have at least put a decent number of wafers to GPU dies, so they'll be coming; its very hard to say there's not stock, when the Day 1 sales of the 9070 series apparently eclipsed all the 5000 series stock seen total to date. Sell out, is very different to paper launch. I'd argue this has been a sell out; with OCUK alone selling over 5000, that's not no stock in the slightest.
 
The plus side though, is based on what Gibbo, and others in the industry have said, is that RDNA4 stock, unlike Nvidia, IS coming.
Gibbo said the other day they've got multiple deliveries due over the coming weeks; and I've heard other retailers and industry insiders mirror that. The stock was never going to mirror the pent up demand, but unlike Nvidia, stock's coming, and fairly frequently.
This should mean that prices will normalise, and sooner, rather than later, everyone who really wants one should be able to get a card. The fact stock keeps appearing will hopefully put scalpers off too, as it'll make it hard for them to make money beyond the initial run; and as stock becomes more prevalant, retailers and AIBs will start to compete more.

The Nvidia/COVID style situation only really continues when the stock never catches up, but it sounds like AMD genuinely have at least put a decent number of wafers to GPU dies, so they'll be coming; its very hard to say there's not stock, when the Day 1 sales of the 9070 series apparently eclipsed all the 5000 series stock seen total to date. Sell out, is very different to paper launch. I'd argue this has been a sell out; with OCUK alone selling over 5000, that's not no stock in the slightest.
Exactly this. There's a difference between having no stock to having stock, that simply sells out due to demand.
 
So what has happened to Global Foundries/Samsung Fabs? Could GPU's not be fabricated on the best that either of those 2 have? Are they really that monumentally behind TSMC on node tech?

Do consumer gaming GPU's really need the most cutting edge, extremely expensive TSMC node?
 
I think it is important to also consider that neither Nvidia or AMD can simply ramp up supply at this stage. TSMC wafer priority is at a premium and AMD can’t simply say “make us more GPUs”. It could take months before we see any stability in the market, it at all.

The gaming market takes up wafers that can be allocated to more profitable markets. I suspect AMD will be better placed to capitalise on this, but that also means gamers accepting (not to be confused with approving) the reality.

In order to see cheaper prices we need stock constantly coming in to the channel. So £50 over MSRP might be the best you can get and if you are holding out for a sub £500 9070, or sub £600 9070 XT you may have a long wait.

unfortunately the AI industry is the reason why the GPU gaming is in this sorry state. If you were nvidia would you rather sell a GPU for £2000 or slap some more VRAM on it and sell it for £80000 to some AI company just wasting electricity. Until the AI industry crashes we should expect things to get even worse, much worse. I cant prove it but its obvious Nvidia has allocated very very little to GPU for gaming.
 
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Do nvidia or AMD, as part of fiscal results, ever release info around no. of units sold? Would be interesting to see if the above is borne out in their own numbers (that's not me doubting/disputing the above)
 
So what has happened to Global Foundries/Samsung Fabs? Could GPU's not be fabricated on the best that either of those 2 have? Are they really that monumentally behind TSMC on node tech?

Do consumer gaming GPU's really need the most cutting edge, extremely expensive TSMC node?
Global Foundry's smallest node is 12LP+, Samsung's seems to be 3nm. Whether either would be desirable for GPU dies is another matter and relates to foundry capacity, wafer cost, expected yield, die size, expected power consumption, expected performance limits, etc.. Which is a roundabout way of saying "it depends" - although that AMD and NVidia have been going for successively smaller nodes at TSMC may tell us that they don't consider these foundries as viable alternatives.
 
unfortunately the AI industry is the reason why the GPU gaming is in this sorry state. If you were nvidia would you rather sell a GPU for £2000 or slap some more VRAM on it and sell it for £80000 to some AI company just wasting electricity. Until the AI industry crashes we should expect things to get even worse, much worse. I cant prove it but its obvious Nvidia has allocated very very little to GPU for gaming.
Indeed - it's like the Crypto bubble, except worse.
 
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