You mean the one where 25 of those points came in Baku because McLaren had a torrid weekend skewing the stats? Counting back Verstappen was +6 at Singapore, +25 as Baku, +10 at Monza so +41 over Piastri in 3 races. I think, given the rest of the season, we can ignore Baku as an outlier - so Verstappen made 16 points in 2 races. But go back 2 more races and Piatsri is +23 over Verstappen, so Verstappen is -7 (ignoring Baku still). Or do you mean the one where if Verstappen wins every race and sprint race* with Norris 2nd and Piastri 3rd, he'll win the championship by just 7 points over Norris and 9 over Piastri. Given the 7 point swing for a win, if either of the McLarens win a single (full) race with Verstappen 2nd, that McLaren drive would win the WDC.
Red Bull seem to have made gains recently but I can't see Verstappen having that level of dominance for the rest of the season. So he might get closer but without another Baku style fumbled weekend for McLaren his chance at the championship is mathematical rather than realistic.