Yes, but this assumes the EU want to make it nice and easy for us. Given that the EU divorce has the potential to turn sour and given how certain Brits tend to behave abroad, they might make visas necessary and a chore to obtain. Yes I'm being a bit melodramatic, but the point is this is all totally up in the air right now.
Brexit thread - what happens next
- Thread starter Gilly
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Yes, but this assumes the EU want to make it nice and easy for us. Given that the EU divorce has the potential to turn sour and given how certain Brits tend to behave abroad, they might make visas necessary and a chore to obtain. Yes I'm being a bit melodramatic, but the point is this is all totally up in the air right now.
either side has a huge impact on the rest of our lives, you don't get to hold a referendum then decide afterwards that because it was the 'wrong' result you'll change the rules and try again
Does anyone actually have any idea the timescales we are talking about when it comes to certain things? Lets say we are ejected and treated like a non-EU/EEA country - how long could it take to organise:
Im sure theres more to think about but it be good to get a ball park figure on those types of negotiations.
- Ability to move into/around the EU short term - both holidays and for business
- Ability to emigrate into the EU
- Import/export trade agreements with the EU for goods/services
- Any short/long-term immigration to non-EU that have been lost due to exiting the EU
- Trade agreements with the non-EU for goods/services that have been lost due to exiting the EU
ps3ud0
I'd hope that would be dealt with within the two year time, it's unlikely we would be any different to all the other countries outside the EU in travel/emigration respect. Same application process so I don't see it being prticularly hard to sort out. That's assuming we don't keep free movement.
As for trade deals, anything from 2-10 years depending on who you talk to.
I voted remain, but my reasons although biased I couldn't support Gove or Mad Boris. I am not upset... I am scared my employment relies on the EU, and I am feeling edgy.
But I agree like with the Scottish Independence I feel if the result is so close, Is it right to drag out half the voted population to placate the other side? I know the Scotland one was a little further but even 10% is too little. I do feel a side should win by a reasonable margin. What margin? I am not sure say 65%? I really don't know I am not going to pretend otherwise.
I am no political expert so forgive my amateurish opinion.
As a kid I dreamed of a world united and heading into space
... *Give me a break I was 8* 
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And that is why Tata share price in India plummeted 8% yesterday. People in India didn't do that because of remainders whinging in the uk. It's because tata is so heavily invested in the uk.
I'm not sure anyone has an appetite for an election right now. We probably should have one, but I'm not convinced it will happen.
Besides, if some parties choose to campaign on a pro-EU platform, the result could be highly contentious. Remain voters may flock to Labour and the Lib Dems in such a situation, resulting in a Labour/Lib Dem/SNP alliance that over-turns the result of the referendum. I'm not quite sure how the more passionate Leave campaigners would take that...
All it would take is one party to support exit and one to say it's going to be chucked in the bin anything else they feel like saying would be irrelevant.
A GE ASAP would focus peoples minds very clearly on the vote without it being a second referendum.
But if we stay in the trade bit like Norway won't we have the same amount of money to pay?
But shouldn't we have a democratically elected government with a manifesto who are actually in favour of Brexit if we plan to actually leave?
Currently all our major elected parties in the House Of Commons have manifestos committed to Remain. There is only one party in the House Of Commons with a manifesto for Brexit, that's UKIP and they have just one seat.
See the problem? Who is going to lead us out of the EU when our currently elected government have no manifesto commitment tr it?
The referendum was not a mandate, it was an advisory. It's an advisory to a House Of commons who are currently majorly in favour of Remain. That's somewhat of an impasse without a General Election.
I think with Cameron abruptly stepping down and both major parties in serious turmoil, we could well end up seeing this referendum effectively quashed.
If none of the politicians end up being particularly in favour of it, there's not much anyone can do about it.
Interesting times ahead.
If none of the politicians end up being particularly in favour of it, there's not much anyone can do about it.
Interesting times ahead.
Soldato
I'm just going to go right out and say it, that no one still really has any idea what will happen once we leave, but that maybe we should do things backwards here.
Have the negotiations as if we are leaving, with all of the details ironed out as to what will change, then have a referendum with actual facts! (based on these negotiations).
If the vote is then leave, then the negotiations would be done so the actual leave step could be done quite fast.
Have the negotiations as if we are leaving, with all of the details ironed out as to what will change, then have a referendum with actual facts! (based on these negotiations).
If the vote is then leave, then the negotiations would be done so the actual leave step could be done quite fast.
So what's the solution? Force all parties to create a manifesto based on leaving the EU? Or give them free reign to do as they please, and watch as normal turnout and the experience of a few months of economic uncertainty hands the victory to parties favouring staying in?
I'd expect riots if that happened TBH.
Yeah lots of the cheaper airlines will either fold or there will be no cheap flights anymore. A lot less planes flying too. Perhaps if the big financial companies move from London and there are less flights overall, we don't need another runway?
Man of Honour
I stuck my head out of a front window this morning, and it looked, smelled and sounded like another normal day. My shares dropped a bit on Friday, but no more than on a number of other volatile days since I bought them. Mortgage payment's still fixed until 2019, and my work brought in more wonga this month than last month despite all the 'uncertainty'. Bought four pints of milk in my local Sainsburys for a quid earlier, same price as before D-day.
On here, as in real life, a pack of people are whining about the current affairs they're unhappy with. The BBC acts as though the country's freefalling in to the pits of hell, whilst amusingly trying to pass themselves off as impartial. Unimaginative souls cry out 'what now?' instead of just getting on with their lives and travails. What now I hear you ask? Stop banging on about it perhaps, and get on with whatever you did with your lives before this drama.
What do you make of this weather we're having, sticky out there isn't it? It wants to rain tonight, but it can't. Oh well it is trying though, a bit like when you keep trying to cough up something but it won't dislodge.
On here, as in real life, a pack of people are whining about the current affairs they're unhappy with. The BBC acts as though the country's freefalling in to the pits of hell, whilst amusingly trying to pass themselves off as impartial. Unimaginative souls cry out 'what now?' instead of just getting on with their lives and travails. What now I hear you ask? Stop banging on about it perhaps, and get on with whatever you did with your lives before this drama.
What do you make of this weather we're having, sticky out there isn't it? It wants to rain tonight, but it can't. Oh well it is trying though, a bit like when you keep trying to cough up something but it won't dislodge.
A well thought out post from the comments section on the Guardian. Interesting read I thought.
"If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.
Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.
With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.
How?
Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.
And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.
The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.
The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?
Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?
Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.
If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.
The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.
When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.
All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign."
"If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.
Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.
With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.
How?
Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.
And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.
The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.
The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?
Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?
Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.
If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.
The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.
When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.
All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign."
Soldato
I have a stupid question
Why does the EU force movement of people as a mandatory inclusion if you want to trade with them? Why the fixation on movement? I can understand if you're a part of the EU but why if you're not part of the EU or are a part of the EEA.
America isn't forced to allow EU citizen to freely move to the US yet they trade with the EU single market, as well as many other countries that have trade agreements with the single market.
Seems like a racket scheme for the rest of Europe spearheaded by the Germans and French.
Why does the EU force movement of people as a mandatory inclusion if you want to trade with them? Why the fixation on movement? I can understand if you're a part of the EU but why if you're not part of the EU or are a part of the EEA.
America isn't forced to allow EU citizen to freely move to the US yet they trade with the EU single market, as well as many other countries that have trade agreements with the single market.
Seems like a racket scheme for the rest of Europe spearheaded by the Germans and French.
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Soldato
Because I think you can't do freedom of goods without freedom of movement of people (the people moving the goods!
).Please someone correct me if I'm wrong, but some time back we had freedom of labour (i.e. a company could say this guy works for me, he needs to be able to move with the goods) but that all changed when freedom of movement got bought in.
You have a General Election and yes all parties will need to have their stance on Brexit in their manifestos. Then if a pro Brexit party wins the election, they already have the will of the people from referendum and can proceed with Article 50 and take us out. If a pro Remain part wins, then they must assume people have changed their mind and we don't leave.
There might be unrest. But there's the possibility of unrest whichever way this rolls now, Pandora's Box has already been opened by a very messy, ugly and poorly debated referendum.
Caporegime
I'll have a £100 bet with anyone here that we do not leave the EU. The government will succumb to leftie pressure and it will be blocked in parliament or a second referendum will be called with a remain victory.
I never believed for a second that we would leave, despite the result.
I will pay up the minute article 50 is invoked.
I never believed for a second that we would leave, despite the result.
I will pay up the minute article 50 is invoked.
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