Sale of petrol and diesel cars to be banned by 2040

[adolf hamster]

The city centre thing will come petrol/diesel vehicles will be banned from central London within a decade and if automation is to really work you can't have manual cars sliding the system down do I would say the motorway ban is inevitable!

thing is the "transitional" period is going to require auto and manual cars on the road at the same time, so it's safe enough to assume by the time we get to full automation the systems for dealing with them will be pretty solid (and ironically at that point unnessecary).

 

[Nasher]

Or maybe we all buy motorbikes.

The health and safety wombles would have a fit! They spend 50 years trying to kill the fun of driving only for people to buy something more fun and dangerous

I can also see hacking public use, automated cars being a new passtime. Send all cars to central London, click.

 

[Hagar]

Petrol and diesel are so 20th century.

I would be 88 in 2040 so don't really think I would be driving, even if still alive.

But the era of ICE was in the days when emission control was unheard of and you could just buy a big engine car and tune it in your garage, they are dead. Ok you get better power outputs from small engines but with the added complexity of turbos, miles of plumbing, CAT's and computers etc. I know which I preferred.

 

[Puzzled]

Not sure about that. Maybe for a while until people realise they can force an automated van to stop and clean out the contents with practically no chance of being caught. Unlike a human driver, they won't just put their foot down when things look ugly.

No driver means no one to threaten, add some extra deadlocks and no-one is getting in to anything without causing a right mess.

The ultimate aim of automation has to be to remove all manually driven vehicles as all they do is add complications but as someone who enjoys driving that saddens me somewhat. I guess it will just be a hobby activity done on tracks / private land.

 

[Amp34]

I won't. No way

I think the government massively over-estimates the amount of people that actually WANT a self-driving car.

http://www.autotrader.co.uk/content/news/half-of-car-buyers-show-no-interest-in-driverless-cars

Taking into account the rather convoluted way the data is presented it seems to indicate just over half of people (51%) are interested in driverless cars, and around a quarter are not interested because they enjoy driving too much, with the other quarter not knowing enough to make a decision.

I'm not sure there's quite as big an overestimation as you may think.

 

[adolf hamster]

http://www.autotrader.co.uk/content/news/half-of-car-buyers-show-no-interest-in-driverless-cars

Taking into account the rather convoluted way the data is presented it seems to indicate just over half of people (51%) are interested in driverless cars, and around a quarter are not interested because they enjoy driving too much, with the other quarter not knowing enough to make a decision.

I'm not sure there's quite as big an overestimation as you may think.

problem there is the precise nature of the question, i think we can agree that there's going to be a lot more people interested in driverless tech as an option for things like commuting, but still have manual control as an option as well, as a completely autonomous vehicle that can't be driven manually.

 

[Amp34]

I'm struggling to see what problem this is solving.

The world and government will be vastly different in that timescale and there's no guarantee technology or opinion will be the same in that time.

I'm all for emissions targets and research into better infrastructure, but you can't just say "yeah, in twenty odd years we'll deffo have a solution and this is the reaction to that twenty odd years in advance". All it will do is cause problems now and send people barking up the wrong tree and we might not end up with the solution we wanted compared to letting things naturally progress.

It's just a daft proposal with a daft headline to benefit someone's cause today, not the future. I'm sure the next hand full of government outfits will change their mind on this before then anyway. to better suit their cause.

It's called kicking the can up the road while looking like they are doing something. It's 23 years into the future, so things can change massively between times. What it does do however is provide a faint target for the motor industry to aim towards and a warning for those in associated industries that things may well change in the future.

That means the industry can innovate as they aim for the target and it allows the associated industries time to work out how they will proceed after that date. No one can claim they weren't given enough warning (how one does it usually take to develop an engine/new vehicle for example? I'm guessing around a decade?)

I wouldn't be surprised if in 10 years that date is moved forwards significantly (worth noting the ban won't include hybrids for example) as the industry show that most of their new vehicles are way ahead of he curve. Alternatively I also wouldn't be surprised if it slips back or had various changes made as specific sections/types of vehicle are added/excluded.

As for larger vehicles in 20 years time I'm guessing you're unlikely to be able to buy a non hybrid/electric vehicle anyway as companies may not be interested to due to the associated costs.

 

[Amp34]

problem there is the precise nature of the question, i think we can agree that there's going to be a lot more people interested in driverless tech as an option for things like commuting, but still have manual control as an option as well, as a completely autonomous vehicle that can't be driven manually.

I agree. I'm certainly interested in driverless cars for example, but at the same time I'd like to have manual control for certain situations, much like most people.

Fully auto, non manual option cars are a long way into the future, but driverless cars with the option to drive manually will be pretty common in 25 years IMO. That commute to work/shops/holiday will be done on auto, but the trip down that lane you like or that dodgy gravel track will be manual (a sort of 95-5% scenario).

There may well be a question added on insurance quotes in the future. Instead of just being asked how many miles the car will be doing, you may well be asked what percentage you manually drive. As said by someone else earlier the higher the percentage the higher your insurance costs may/will be.

 

[adolf hamster]

I agree. I'm certainly interested in driverless cars for example, but at the same time I'd like to have manual control for certain situations, much like most people.

Fully auto, non manual option cars are a long way into the future, but driverless cars with the option to drive manually will be pretty common in 25 years IMO. That commute to work/shops/holiday will be done on auto, but the trip down that lane you like or that dodgy gravel track will be manual (a sort of 95-5% scenario).

There may well be a question added on insurance quotes in the future. Instead of just being asked how many miles the car will be doing, you may well be asked what percentage you manually drive. As said by someone else earlier the higher the percentage the higher your insurance costs may/will be.

yeah, there's always those times when you want to take over yourself, it'd certainly silence the "but i enjoy driving" argument as long as its an option.

wether or not it'll become auto only as a requirement is a matter of time, hopefully long enough so i don't have to deal with it, of course its an interesting question to ask if it has the ability to be driven manually it'll require a driving licence, which means one of the big advantages of driverless tech won't work- using them for people who couldn't otherwise drive eg: blind people, of course i suppose they could make exceptions.

 

[Mal X]

well if your still alive by then
just buy the last of the petrol V8s in the year 2038............but you might find that petrol engines have already vanished by then.
even so, a Big Block Crate Muscle motor is still going strong and available in loads of places and that's been around since 1965 !!!!!!!!!!

but my guess is by 2040 you wont be able to drive fast anyway, because there will either be far too many Speed Cameras, or cars will be automatically speed restricted by whatever road you're on

 

[Firestar_3x]

Will you have finally purchased a car by 2040 Mal X?

 

[Mal X]

Will you have finally purchased a car by 2040 Mal X?

 

[Amp34]

yeah, there's always those times when you want to take over yourself, it'd certainly silence the "but i enjoy driving" argument as long as its an option.

wether or not it'll become auto only as a requirement is a matter of time, hopefully long enough so i don't have to deal with it, of course its an interesting question to ask if it has the ability to be driven manually it'll require a driving licence, which means one of the big advantages of driverless tech won't work- using them for people who couldn't otherwise drive eg: blind people, of course i suppose they could make exceptions.

That could be fairly easy to solve, if it's really an issue at all. For starters they just don't choose to manually take over the vehicle. Even today a blind person (or someone with a suspended licence) could technically drive, there's nothing stopping them from just taking keys to a car and driving it. The car currently doesn't know who's driving and neither do the authorities unless they are pulled over.

If we really need a way of stopping people setting the vehicle to manual that don't have a driving licence then it would be simple enough, even with todays tech. Just implement a system where the vehicle checks for a driving licence. A simple RFID chip in new driving licences and an RFID reader in the vehicle could solve that issue. If you really wanted to go high tech then a camera facing the driver with face recognition tech to make sure the driver is the same as the licence holder. It's all available in phones and bank cards today so not an unrealistic option.

Edit: or less complex, have the system set so some keys allow the manual driver option. It would basically just be another line of code for the ECU to process. Just use the same smart key many cars come with now, the same ones that auto adjust seats and set speed limiters. That way the kid can go to and from school on their own without being able to turn the car off auto, but dad can manually drive if he so wants.

Or have it set as a dealer configuration so if someone without a licence buys a car manual mode is disabled and you have to take it back to the dealer to be enabled again.

Lots of easy, simple, cheap/free options for this.

 

[Raggs]

can't see the massive infrastructure needed being ready in 23 years time sounds along time but it isn't for such a huge project, we will end up like cuba old petrol cars being kept going for decades rather been chucked on the scrap heap after 15 years.

for those who live in flats how the hell will you be able to have a charging point ? a 70 meter heavy duty cable chucked out of the kitchen window perhaps and good luck getting the likes of china and India to sign up to this idea.

 

[jimjamuk]

Ignoring the car tech - that the government doesn't have to do anything with as its all on the car manufacturers. I can see what huge infrastructure changes will be needed 0 in 20 odd years if they have extended battery tech to last more than the 200 miles it can do now then there is on hope for us all. So take it batteries can last say double what they can do now in cars then charge you car at home and your'e good to go for the day. Maybe a smart lane on the motorway so the cars can join the lane and be put into auto.

 

[adolf hamster]

That could be fairly easy to solve, if it's really an issue at all. For starters they just don't choose to manually take over the vehicle. Even today a blind person (or someone with a suspended licence) could technically drive, there's nothing stopping them from just taking keys to a car and driving it. The car currently doesn't know who's driving and neither do the authorities unless they are pulled over.

If we really need a way of stopping people setting the vehicle to manual that don't have a driving licence then it would be simple enough, even with todays tech. Just implement a system where the vehicle checks for a driving licence. A simple RFID chip in new driving licences and an RFID reader in the vehicle could solve that issue. If you really wanted to go high tech then a camera facing the driver with face recognition tech to make sure the driver is the same as the licence holder. It's all available in phones and bank cards today so not an unrealistic option.

Edit: or less complex, have the system set so some keys allow the manual driver option. It would basically just be another line of code for the ECU to process. Just use the same smart key many cars come with now, the same ones that auto adjust seats and set speed limiters. That way the kid can go to and from school on their own without being able to turn the car off auto, but dad can manually drive if he so wants.

Or have it set as a dealer configuration so if someone without a licence buys a car manual mode is disabled and you have to take it back to the dealer to be enabled again.

Lots of easy, simple, cheap/free options for this.

pretty good point, the multiple keys one would work quite well for example for insurance, if they wanted to have discounts for only using auto mode you could post them the manual key or something.

some cars already do this for engine remaps so it can work.

 

[atpbx]

No charging infrastructure, millions of houses with no facility to charge their cars, millions more with no facility to charge their cars safely......

Tens of billions of pounds worth of investment needed in building said infrastructure, retooling factories etc.

Brilliant idea.

 

[atpbx]

Hardly call 4% of new car sales rare. Its extremely rare to go to the supermarket and not see a couple plugged in. There's a lot of infastructure out there and it's growing fast.
Its a lame target but what do you expect from this government. Set a deadline that is pretty meaningless as without it you would be hard pressed to buy a new ice by then anyway.

That's not the case, I won't be alone in saying outside of the M25 there will be people who have not seen an electric car at all, let alone seen a couple wired up at the supermarket when they go shopping.

I've never seen a electrical car space occupied.

In fact that is a LIE, I did see one occupied, by a Lamborghini Hurrican last week when I stopped off at the services on the A1 outside Peterborough.

 

[Vertigo]

The future

Is that McLaren's new engine partner?

 

[Glaucus]

That's not the case, I won't be alone in saying outside of the M25 there will be people who have not seen an electric car at all, let alone seen a couple wired up at the supermarket when they go shopping.

I've never seen a electrical car space occupied.

In fact that is a LIE, I did see one occupied, by a Lamborghini Hurrican last week when I stopped off at the services on the A1 outside Peterborough.

I don't live in London