Poll: Eu referendum prediction thread (poll please)

Mulder · 15 Jun 2016 at 06:46

BaronVonDuncs said:
Your mixing up two different things. The European Convention on Human Rights is from the Council of Europe not the EU. The UK joined it in the 50's long before we joined the EU. In fact it was a UK lawyer who wrote most of it so a lot of it was drawn from legal notions and concepts familiar to the UK.

The Human Rights Act was passed in 1998 by Parliament when we had a Labour Government. Essentially it allowed UK citizens to go to the UK courts to have the rights enumerated in the ECHR enforced directly by UK courts rather than needing to go to the European Court of Human Rights.

The examples you give sound suspiciously like Daily Fail drivel to me but I don't know the details of those cases. No system is perfect and sometimes individual cases can throw up frustrating results. Sometimes Jurors get it wrong, in fact around 40% of the time they don't convict maybe because of innocence maybe they got it wrong. It doesn't provide a sound argument for scrapping all jury trials though.

As it happens of the cases taken against the UK government to the European Court of Human Rights around 97% don't get accepted for an oral hearing, of those the Government wins around 2.5% of the 3% heard in oral hearings. So essentially the UK government loses 0.5% of cases taken to the ECHR. That doesn't sound too onerous to me.

We were talking about the Human Rights Act, not the ECHR. I'm aware of the difference.

Many people want to replace the HRA with something more sensible and fair, hence my prior quote that the HRA had led to "political correctness, costly litigation, feeble justice, and culture of compensation running riot in Britain today".

As you rightly point out the HRA enshrines the right of UK citizens to petition UK courts for their rights under the ECHR. Our current Government won a majority on a manifesto that included all the problems with the HRA and proposed a British Bill of Rights, here.

For the record, your= belonging to, you're = you are.

Errol · 15 Jun 2016 at 10:02

It beggars belief that so many people on this poll are apparently voting to be ruled by a largely unelected group of people in Brussels over whom we have virtually no control.

We need to take back our Sovereignty. Do you think The USA would vote to be governerned by a small group of people in Bolivia (or somewhere)? No. They fought the War of Independence to gain their freedom.

Sadly the people voting 'Remain' seem to hold freedom/sovereignty cheap. Some might call them traitors.

shiver · 15 Jun 2016 at 11:13

Errol said:
Sadly the people voting 'Remain' seem to hold freedom/sovereignty cheap. Some might call them traitors.

Just wow.

Six6siX · 15 Jun 2016 at 11:16

Errol, why have you posted the exact same thing in both threads? :/

Secret_Window · 15 Jun 2016 at 11:20

shiver said:
Just wow.

This the OcUK forum, anything you read regarding pro nationalist/right-wing views shouldn't be shocking to you by now.

platypus · 15 Jun 2016 at 11:22

Errol said:
Sadly the people voting 'Remain' seem to hold freedom/sovereignty cheap. Some might call them traitors.

You are pathetic.

shiver · 15 Jun 2016 at 11:28

Secret_Window said:
This the OcUK forum, anything you read regarding pro nationalist/right-wing views shouldn't be shocking to you by now.

True, i should change to :rolleyes:

Tunney · 15 Jun 2016 at 11:49

I've changed my mind. I think Leave will win.

Brookert · 15 Jun 2016 at 12:08

Tunney said:
I've changed my mind. I think Leave will win.

The thing you have to consider is. Leave are much more vocal. Remain are like Tory voters, they keep quiet but will probably turn out in their droves on the day.

However, leave voters will be much more determined to turn out.

Semple · 15 Jun 2016 at 12:42

Does anyone know much about the count? - haven't actually seen this anywhere.

I assume the decider is based wholly on the number of votes, rather than anything to do with votes per area (similar to general election).

On the 24th will they do a live counter based on polling stations returning their vote count, or will this all be kept under wraps until all stations have returned their vote count.

Also with pre-polls suggesting voting so far has been fairly 50/50 split, what sort of margins would there need to be for a recount. I.e. if one side has 1,000 more votes than the other, out of potentially 20+ million (assumption) votes, a 1k vote margin could easily have been miscounted.

Darujhistan · 15 Jun 2016 at 12:45

Brookert said:
The thing you have to consider is. Leave are much more vocal. Remain are like Tory voters, they keep quiet but will probably turn out in their droves on the day.

However, leave voters will be much more determined to turn out.

Agreed, remainers are definitely embarrassed to admit it.

[TFU] Thegoon84 · 15 Jun 2016 at 13:17

Secret_Window said:
This the OcUK forum, anything you read regarding pro nationalist/right-wing views shouldn't be shocking to you by now.

Hmmmm yess, I agree with this! Then again being from OCUK I'm sure you disagree with me agreeing with it!

Errol said:
Sadly the people voting 'Remain' seem to hold freedom/sovereignty cheap. Some might call them traitors.

https://pbs.][/QUOTE]

BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHAAHHA

Obvious troll is Obvious....I hold world freedom/Sovereignty higher than my own selfish narrow minded views.

Mr Jack · 15 Jun 2016 at 13:39

If you'd asked me a couple of weeks ago I would have said I expected Remain to win comfortably, but my impression is that the Remain side has failed to convince the public of their message while the Leave side plays ugly but effective politics, and the media has obsessively focused on the Tory squabble instead of trying to inform the public about the facts. I now expect a narrow Leave victory, probably with less than 51.5% of the vote.

Narj · 15 Jun 2016 at 13:43

Darujhistan said:
Agreed, remainers are definitely embarrassed to admit it.

I've found that getting some people to admit they are voting leave can be tricky. It's as if they are breaking some kind of taboo.

Tunney · 15 Jun 2016 at 14:08

Brookert said:
The thing you have to consider is. Leave are much more vocal. Remain are like Tory voters, they keep quiet but will probably turn out in their droves on the day.

However, leave voters will be much more determined to turn out.

The polls and the betting markets are only going in one direction.

Quartz · 15 Jun 2016 at 14:30

Tunney said:
The polls and the betting markets are only going in one direction.

I don't know about the betting markets but the polls got it comprehensively wrong with the Scottish referendum and the last General Election.

platypus · 15 Jun 2016 at 15:12

Darujhistan said:
Agreed, remainers are definitely embarrassed to admit it.

Utter nonsense.

Darujhistan · 15 Jun 2016 at 15:14

platypus said:
Utter nonsense.

Nope, same phenomenon in Gen Elec and Scots ref.

Caged · 15 Jun 2016 at 22:24

He says, whilst arguing with people proclaiming their support for remain.

Tefal · 15 Jun 2016 at 23:09

platypus said:
Utter nonsense.

I agree its not embarrassment its "not wanting to get ranted at".

Same with the Scottish referendum the side wanting change will ususaly be more vocal and kost people dont want somoen rabbiting on at them

Poll: Eu referendum prediction thread (poll please)

Which way will you vote and who do you think will win?

I am voting leave and i think leave will win

I am voting leave but i think remain will win

I am voting remain and i think remain will win

I am voting remain but i think leave will win.