I'll counter your silly argument by saying Leave voters will not know what date it is and probably be too drunk to to go anywhere.
Poll: Eu referendum prediction thread (poll please)
- Thread starter Tefal
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I'll counter your silly argument by saying Leave voters will not know what date it is and probably be too drunk to to go anywhere.
I'll counter your silly argument by saying Leave voters will not know what date it is and probably be too drunk to to go anywhere.
The Irish aren't voting in this referendum though
To be pedantic, the Irish - along with other commonwealth members - have the right to vote in this election if they are resident in the UK. Which is somewhat perverse when you consider British citizens using the rights granted to them by EU membership are denied the vote if they've used them too long and EU citizens who've lived, worked and paid tax for over a decade are unable to vote.
Our voting laws are odd.
And the remain camp are oh so clean cut ..... not.
To be honest, much like everything in politics, all any of them seem to do is bash the other side using as many dirty tricks as possible. It's rarely about the common good and winning based on actual policies. It's almost always about dragging your opponent through the dirt.
Remain have not been a shining example to us all but I think the politics of Leave - in particular some of the stuff said about Turkey, refugees and terrorism - is worse and the kind of ugly politics that will leave a stain on UK politics for a long time.
Let's face it, they're all a bunch of lieing scum who can't ba trusted any further than you can throw them.
I do however dislike the politics of George **** Osborne and his direct threats of increased taxes based on something he can't possibly guarantee is going to happen. Granted, that's just one thing, but he a David Cameron lost my vote immediately they started threatening us and doomsaying.
Basically, it looks like things currently aren't going remain's way so they're just throwing their teddy's out of the pram.
I do however dislike the politics of George **** Osborne and his direct threats of increased taxes based on something he can't possibly guarantee is going to happen. Granted, that's just one thing, but he a David Cameron lost my vote immediately they started threatening us and doomsaying.
Basically, it looks like things currently aren't going remain's way so they're just throwing their teddy's out of the pram.
Don
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This is exactly my line of thought.
I'm not so sure about "comfortably", though I suppose it depends on your definition. I was not expecting the 2 to 1 sort of vote we got in '75, but 55:45 for Remain wouldn't have shocked me.
I do agree about expecting a Remain win, until the last week or two.
Now, I have not the foggiest idea what to expect, other than that either way, it'll be pretty close.
I thunk there's several factors that make it hard to call.
Right now, polls have it at something like 52 to 53 Leave, 47 to 48 Remain, but there's often a last minute leaning towards the perceived risk-averse position which traditionally favours status quo. However, it's not entirely clear how that plays here, because it depends if you swallow the Remain camp's view of the risks being economic due to EU market access, or whether you swallow the Leave camp's view that the biggest risk is being on the hook for potential costs of EU bailouts if we get a collapse in an Italy/France size economy, or even Greece.
One thing that does amuse me is the contradiction I've heard from some senior German politicians that the UK will suffer from being outside the single market, while at the same time, apparently we'll trigger a collapse and breakup of the EU. If we trigger an EU breakup (which I don't believe), how can we suffer (which I also don't believe outside of short-term) by being outside a single market that will no longer exist?
Other factors will be whether the economy, and claimed damage to it, are even the criteria on which people vote. Do people belief the "Brexit budget" hysteria, or do they regard any damage, which they feel will be transitory, as an acceptable price for sovereignty, control of immigration policy, etc?
Also, will there be any defining events in the next week? And, how many votes are postal and have already been sent, so are immune to events in the next week?
What will the turnout be? Even lousy weather could impact on the vote.
Plenty of polling data suggests a much higher proportion of Leave voters believe in it passionately and have waited for years or decades, so will turn out through a deluge or an alien invasion to vote, whereas many Remain voters believe it, but aren't as passionate.
If it was a '75 style 65:35 vote, it'd probably survive all these and the result would be the same even if the ratio varied. But as it appears to be within a couple of points of 50:50, a fairly small variance could through it from one way to the other. And there's still a lot of undecideds.
As those declaring themselves undecided are way more than needed to give a conclusive win to either side, and even they don't know what they'll vote, or even if they will, it's hard to see how anyone else can predict what they'll do.
I do find it sad that the issue is likely to be decided by the last minute whim of those that can't make up their mind. We almost might have just tossed a coin and saved millions on the campaigns and the referendum itself.
You are speaking utter tripe.
I've toned down my participation in the GD threads on the subject because I'm sick to death of them, like Biohazards frequent meltdowns on the Scottish referendum, it's not really possible to have a good debate on here.
I could equally say of the innocent until proven guilty principle that 'this is the principle that allowed O.J.Simpson to walk free' and similar things. We can always pick some bad examples. I don't know the particulars of the things you quote. My first instinct to your schoolboy arsonist one, for example, is to question why a human right to an education and leaving a child in class are the only two options. Do we not have remand schools anymore? And were there no punishments for the arson?
As for TTIP - that's a European/US trade deal that has been met with fierce resistance across the whole of Europe, including the UK. When it suits remain it will take us 10 years to agree a deal with the US, when it doesn't remain say we would have already agreed a TTIP style deal with the US.
Oh I believe that one can be supported. Back when it first reached public awareness, I checked the three main parties positions on it and they were all explicitly in favour of it. Enthusiastically so. And there was very little awareness in the UK about it as it hadn't really hit UK public awareness yet.
Wow. I may not agree with Sixy but at least I took the time to understand their position and can see reasoning behind it. Your inability to understand it is unbelievable.
Someone can disagree that a bus should have been steered towards a cliff, yet still shout for which way they think it should turn as it speeds towards the edge. That's not hypocrisy.
