Big 4 now the Big 5?

Stag · 19 Jul 2007 at 23:05

In the past seasons 4 clubs have dominated the English Premiership, partly due to the huge amounts of cash that the Champions League provides. With the increased influx of domestic television revenue and rich investors many clubs are seeing a new dawn of financial muscle. The gulf in spending power will still be there but not to the same extent that it has been.

Before a mid table club could look forward to the end of the season where they banked on their manager to make one big signing to swing their clubs fortunes, now a mid table club can make many multiple million pound signings and it not cripple the club if they do not work out. Of course it is still a result business but now just surviving in the Premiership is now as lucrative as winning it was 10 years ago.

Mourinho has been quoted recently as saying he believes Spurs to have the potential to fight for the title. If a manager had uttered this line just 3 years ago everyone but the most deludedly optimistic Spurs fan would have laughed their arse off. Now for me this is quite a statement, if he is just trying to unhinge his rivals by making them look over their shoulders instead of up at Chelsea then we can give him his a scout badge for mind games (I'd suggest he was artifically inflating Spurs fans hopes but he would be wasting his breath).

Spurs have certainly been narrowing the gap for the past 3 years, with some highly astute signings and decisions. Most notably Michael Carrick and Dimitar Berbatov, and with difference in behaviour between the two emphasising the raising of expectancy and reputation just a year later.

When Carrick joined Spurs (£2.75m) they were a perenial midtable team, never having finished in the top6 or the bottom6 since the inception of the Premierleague. 2 seasons later and Spurs just missed out on a Champions league place after holding 4th from Christmas right till the last day. However the lure of Manchester United drew his eye and after a protracted transfer was sold for a fee of up to £18.6m (£14m upfront).

His loss from Spurs midfield was catastrophic being the lynchpin that held our midfield together. It took untill October for the club to get back to form, but still managed to finish 5th for a second season in row. Now the best of the rest after two 5th placed finishes Spurs are looking to progress to challenging the Champions League places. The only way that is going to happen is if Spurs keep Berbatov.

Berbatov the current gem in the crown but unlike Carrick looks like he will stay at Spurs and shun the overtures of bigger clubs, at least for the coming season. With Berbatov staying and the reinforcements payed for with the influx of TV revenue Spurs are in pole position to challenge the top4's dominance.

Is this finally the season when the top 4 is broken, another 5th placed finish for Spurs, a gap to open up between the top 5 or will the revenue influx boost the nearly boys and create a superleague filled with top teams and prove the Premiership is the best league in the world?

weringo · 19 Jul 2007 at 23:23

I would say its more of a "big 3" now rather than a "big 5". Spurs come improved over the last couple of seasons but at the same time Arsenal have gone backwards. Arsenal have now dropped to the same tier as Spurs imo.

BaZ87 · 19 Jul 2007 at 23:31

The gab in spending is still there, all this new tv deal has done is make the top EPL clubs more powerfull than there European rivals and has allowed the mid-table EPL clubs to challenge for players with the top clubs in europe (minus the big EPL sides).

Spurs and all the other 10th - 5th placed sides can't attract the top players even if they could afford them, as seen with Torres; Man City offered the full £27m for him but he point blank turned them down.

As for whether the EPL will have a big 5 rather than a big 4? I don't think so based on the signings Spurs have made, though they may be able to compete with Arsenal if they get injuries to the likes of RVP or Fabregas.

I still think Spurs are considerable weaker in all areas ,minus there strikers and Lennon, to the top 4. The money used to sign Bent, imo, could have been spent better to improve these other areas.

Chong Warrior · 19 Jul 2007 at 23:34

Spurs have the potential to challenge the Top 4 and arguably the talent, nothing more. We still lack the mentality and this is where Jol will be tested to the limit this coming season. He has a very young squad, without much experience really and it's going to be a huge test.

I still think it's too much. We lack a real leader on the field for those cold, rainy nights up north in places like Bolton and vital points will be dropped. It will take a poor season from Arsenal to finish below us as Spurs aren't yet strong enough to put 10+ game winning streaks together and streak ahead like Chelsea, Man U, Liverpool and Arsenal are.

BaZ87 · 19 Jul 2007 at 23:36

Chong Warrior said:
Spurs have the potential to challenge the Top 4 and arguably the talent, nothing more. We still lack the mentality and this is where Jol will be tested to the limit this coming season. He has a very young squad, without much experience really and it's going to be a huge test.

Do you really feel you have the strength in depth at cb and on the wings? Or even the first choice players in goal, cm or at full back, to compete? Regardless of experience, mentality etc.

Raymond Lin · 19 Jul 2007 at 23:51

Narh, Spurs are not in the same "league" as Man United or Chelsea. Even Liverpool isn't, no matter how much their fans claimed to be, their results in the league certainly hasn't shown it. Arsenal has fallen behind from 3 seasons ago when they were literally invincible.

It's not so much Big 5, just 2 at the moment. May be Big 3 if the Summer spending is to go by, then Liverpool could be considered one of the big 3. Thou I can still imagine Liverpool beating Man United on Saturday and then Lose to Bolton on Monday. It's just the way they are in the past decade, they have to stop doing that if they want to challenge the league.

Shamikebab · 19 Jul 2007 at 23:54

I still think its a big two, i dont think arsenal can compete, especially without henry. Liverpool after splashing cash might get better but it'll have to wait and see. Tottenham i've been quite a side fan of for the last couple of seasons, i like a lot of there players and i genuinely believe they have what it takes to finish above arsenal and maybe even liverpool this year.

BaZ87 · 19 Jul 2007 at 23:57

Raymond Lin said:
Thou I can still imagine Liverpool beating Man United on Saturday and then Lose to Bolton on Monday. It's just the way they are in the past decade, they have to stop doing that if they want to challenge the league.

You've got that the wrong way around. Our problem over the last 2 seasons has been our performances against the top sides not our form against the lesser sides. IIRC had we beaten Chelsea home and away 2 seasons back we would have won the league, last season we won 2 of the 6 "big 4" games and lost the rest and the previous season we won 1, drew 1 and lost the rest.

Chong Warrior · 20 Jul 2007 at 01:04

BaZ87 said:
Do you really feel you have the strength in depth at cb and on the wings? Or even the first choice players in goal, cm or at full back, to compete? Regardless of experience, mentality etc.

CB yes. King, Dawson, Rocha, Kaboul & Gardener are plenty enough, even if Gardener leaves. Chimbonda and Huddlestone can also play there as cover if needed. Kaboul looks like a real quality signing, watch out for this guy

Dawson should be worried about his place if King stays fit.

Wings no, not currently. Lennon, Malbranque, Taarabt, Tainio, Routledge, aren't enough. We're supposedly close to signing SWP, if this falls through then we have a back up plan for Petrov in place. SWP would be a good signing for us I reckon. Bale can also play LW.

CM is my biggest worry and is where we fall well short. This area we are well behind the Top 4 and I can't understand why Jol hasn't strengthened. :confused:

This will be our undoing and everyone but Jol & Co can see it!!

Full Backs yes, just. LB is still a worry but we'll see how Bale adapts to the Prem. Chimbonda, Salty, YP Lee, Bale, Ekotto with Rocha and Gardener as cover and ready to fill in aswell.

Is Robbo good enough? I believe so but he did have an iffy period last season. Took him a while to recover from that England goal but he came good towards the end of the season. I have faith in him.

I can see Spurs relying heavily on our forwards again this year. White Hart Lane will be a good place to be for goals and entertainment next season

Raymond Lin · 20 Jul 2007 at 01:11

If Torres doesn't deliver, or on the same level as Kuyt in terms of scoring (which wasn't bad but it's no Drogba) then it won't make much of a difference.

BaZ87 · 20 Jul 2007 at 01:36

Raymond Lin said:
If Torres doesn't deliver, or on the same level as Kuyt in terms of scoring (which wasn't bad but it's no Drogba) then it won't make much of a difference.

Torres isn't the the main factor to how well we do. If Pennant keeps improving (even though i can't stand him), which to be fair he got better and better towards the end of the season, Kewell stays fit and then Babel and Benayoun perform, then the goals will come. Our biggest problem has been creating the chances (not converting them), we're more than a match for any side in terms of our keeper, defence and central midfield.

Chong Warrior said:
snip

Im not sure of the stats but i can't see Spurs being able to keep enough clean sheets and edging the close games, nor do i think they have the midfield capable of controlling games and like you've said you seem to lack a real leader who will drag you through tough matches.

Completely agree with you about your cm and its strange why you haven't signed anybody there, considering you've spent big money. Would have you been willing to sacrafice (sp) Bent for a top CM?

red11 · 20 Jul 2007 at 02:23

Liverpool have improved their team this summer so I'd expect them to achieve a much higher points total next season. Comparing clean sheets I came across another interesting stat (according to the BBC stats)

Clean Sheets:

Chelsea 22
Liverpool 20
Man Utd 16
Arsenal 12
Spurs 6

Premiership games where team failed to score:

Liverpool 14
Spurs 10
Arsenal 7
Chelsea 4
Man Utd 4

weringo · 20 Jul 2007 at 02:35

Linoge said:
Premiership games where team failed to score:

Liverpool 14
Spurs 10
Arsenal 7
Chelsea 4
Man Utd 4

That was one of our big problems last year, when we played teams such as villa, portsmouth and middlesborough etc they just parked a bus in front of their goal and we lacked the creativity and flair to break them down. Similarly in games such as Chelsea (away) and Man Utd (home) we were the better team on the day and controlled the games but we just failed to score and ended up losing the game.

Next season we'll have better attacking options with Kewell, Torres, Benayoun, Voronin and Lucas, and Gerrard and Alonso hopefully will perform much nearer to their best so we should create more chances and score more goals.

Loki · 20 Jul 2007 at 07:44

Linoge said:
Liverpool have improved their team this summer so I'd expect them to achieve a much higher points total next season. Comparing clean sheets I came across another interesting stat (according to the BBC stats)

Clean Sheets:

Chelsea 22
Liverpool 20
Man Utd 16
Arsenal 12
Spurs 6

Premiership games where team failed to score:

Liverpool 14
Spurs 10
Arsenal 7
Chelsea 4
Man Utd 4

My mate whos a season ticket holder at Anfield showed me an interesting stat yesterday. Liverpewl had the most shots off target last season by far. So a lot is resting on Torres shoulders tohit the ground running. The interesting thing will be Voronin I think. If he gets a few then it may take a bit of heat off Torres

As for Spurs there biggest weakness is centre mid. Not necessarily someone in the hard man role. But they need a leader in the centre of midfield who can dictate the pace of the game. I suspect that Spurs will be a side everyone will enjoy watching with the players they have. I think they will take more points off the top 4 clubs as well. The key to theirs and anyones success for that matter is going to be consistency and I think the current squad maybe a season away from adding one or two absolute top draw signings to push and cement a position in the top 4. Maybe they will be like Newcastle in the 90's.

Mystic Loki predicts one maybe two cups for Spurs though

FrankJH · 20 Jul 2007 at 07:45

My view is that JM was trying to deflect some pressure he is already feeling onto Martin Jol (if Jose has another season like the last one - will he be at Stamford Bridge in 2008/09? The FA Cup isnt THAT good to appease RA)

The only way I think Spurs will get into the CL next year (and keep Berbatov) is if they concerntrate on the EPL this year and basically forget all of the cup competitions. Yes they have a great mix of strikers, but the rest of the team picks itself because while they have other players, the difference in quality is huge between 1st XI and anyone coming in as a sub / covering for injury.

If Arsenal have horrendous injury problems it could happen but I feel they were that unlucky last season its unlikely to happen again

wassap · 20 Jul 2007 at 08:15

Spurs have one real big weak link, and thats Robbo, his confidence is shot and he really isnt the keeper he was a few years ago.

Whether they can really challenge is an interesting one, Spurs,like us, have been 'back' for just about every close season i can remember

And yeah Liverpools problem last season was a combination of poor strikers and poor deliver, we had a lot of misfiring players, that said, take out our first 10 games of the season, we werent too far off the top two tbh.

JohnnyG · 20 Jul 2007 at 10:24

I love pre-season optimism, I'm gonna bookmark this thread and bump it in about late December

Tunney · 20 Jul 2007 at 10:29

wohoo said:
Spurs have one real big weak link, and thats Robbo, his confidence is shot and he really isnt the keeper he was a few years ago.

Highest scoring goalkeeper last season though.

I agree that Spurs need a really decent central midfielder in order to compete. If you look at the top four then they've got talent in the middle of the park in abundance - Scholes, Carrick, Essien, Lampard, Gerrard, Alonso, Fàbregas...

I don't think Jenas is as terrible as people make out but him and Zokora aren't top 4 quality at the moment.

Obviously our strikers are fantastic and I don't think we've got any problems in defence now that we've signed Kaboul. Chimbonda would be a big loss if he went though.

Oh, and some kind of left midfielder with an actual left foot would be nice.

I think next season will be a turning point. Either we'll hit the ground running and claim 4th or we'll start badly, get UEFA cup football again and watch our best talent leave. Arsenal look shaky at the moment and a couple of injuries to key players could leave them vulnerable.

Whatever happens, it's an exciting time to own a Spurs season ticket.

CliffyG · 20 Jul 2007 at 10:30

I think Spurs are a little way away still to be honest. Considering that Arsenal have had their worst 2 seasons for years (our terrible luck with injuries didn't help) and they still haven't catched us i think we'll be quite a ways ahead if we get some form back. I also think we have a good chance of finishing above Liverpool. I can see Man U and Chelsea being too consistent to make a proper challenge this season though.

Ripper · 20 Jul 2007 at 10:40

Spurs will be battling for 5th again I reckon. I think Everton/Newcastle/Spurs will all be tough to play against this season, but none of them will break into the top 4.