I think people can see AMD now have a path to follow and an upwards trajectory. They've got good products and more coming at a time when industries like Deep Learning are coming on line, and their main competitor Intel is struggling. As a company, AMD have a unique set of IP on both the GPU and CPU side that gives them opportunities that the like of Nvidia and Intel don't have.
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AMD on the road to recovery.
- Thread starter humbug
- Start date
The increases are the corrections. AMD is horribly undervalued.
While Intel stock hasn't really seen notable changes from all speculative code execution vulnerabilities, along with problems in manufacturing and lacking answer to core count scaling ability of AMD's modular design.
AI/deep learning and such computing is certainly major reason why Intel has renewed interest on GPUs.
I think Intel hired Jim Keller primarily to lead development on those areas.
Because that's where there's going to be major market growth, unlike in consumer PC CPUs.
I mean just imagine size of markets when self driving cars etc start appearing.
Oh they very much have. Down from $58 to $48 in the last 6 months, in the same period AMD are up from $15 to $28
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/INTC
I think there's an awareness that large scale data centres and cloud providers are looking at AMD's products much more favourably and are more willing than ever to expand/replace with AMD. That business is seeing Intel's price/performance drop like a stone when speculative code execution mitigations are in place because of the massive slowdown they cause that particularly effects them. They are potentially a huge source of income for AMD, and where else are they going to go after being stung by Intel?
Caporegime
- Joined
- 18 Oct 2002
- Posts
- 33,188
Yup, Intel went from $35 to $58 in about a year, mostly off massive increases in prices on server chips before EPYC was even available. The problem is in that time frame Intel didn't just delay their 10nm process 6 months like it had done literally what 4-5 times in the previous 2.5 years, they released a chip... it sucked and the result of releasing that chip was they made a huge statement delaying the process for 18 months.
Then you have AMD bringing 7nm EPYC out early next year while Intel can't get 10nm server chips till at least Q1 2020 in theory but it's likely later than that at a time when data centres are already buying more and more EPYC chips on 14nm. 14nm has made the entire industry interested in it, some so much they are buying in already, many more will when AMD double core count, improve IPC and basically double performance per watt.
Since all that became apparent Intel went from a $23 increase, to a $10 drop. So what started off as massive gains before EPYC became a real threat and while they were still saying they were going to be on 10nm at least a year before AMD got to a similar process has completely reverse, as that became a reality and specifically as AMD started sampling 7nm chips while Intel isn't doing the same with 10nm it became patently clear to the industry that AMD has a significant lead on the next process node and with EPYC/Ryzen, Threadripper it's also become patently clear that AMD has a competitive architecture, that AMD can execute improvements on these chips and that AMD will combine those with a process node way ahead of Intel.
Since that has become clear Intel has dropped some 20% while AMD has shot through the roof. They aren't over valued, the price has gone up because realistic expectation has improved significantly and depending on where AMD is even by the end fo 2019, $30 could be significantly undervalued.
Worth remembering, they fired a CEO for an old consensual relationship with a coworker.... after what 3/4 of a year in which the stock raised about 70%. You don't get fired over a nothing issue because everything is fantastic and you don't see the massive problem that guy led you into that will take a long while to fix. It just looks better to fire a guy for a relationship, than for leading them to a disastrous process node failure, a lack of forward momentum in their CPU architecture, a upcoming year long gap in which they can't be at all competitive with AMD in servers where most of their profit comes from.
Then you have AMD bringing 7nm EPYC out early next year while Intel can't get 10nm server chips till at least Q1 2020 in theory but it's likely later than that at a time when data centres are already buying more and more EPYC chips on 14nm. 14nm has made the entire industry interested in it, some so much they are buying in already, many more will when AMD double core count, improve IPC and basically double performance per watt.
Since all that became apparent Intel went from a $23 increase, to a $10 drop. So what started off as massive gains before EPYC became a real threat and while they were still saying they were going to be on 10nm at least a year before AMD got to a similar process has completely reverse, as that became a reality and specifically as AMD started sampling 7nm chips while Intel isn't doing the same with 10nm it became patently clear to the industry that AMD has a significant lead on the next process node and with EPYC/Ryzen, Threadripper it's also become patently clear that AMD has a competitive architecture, that AMD can execute improvements on these chips and that AMD will combine those with a process node way ahead of Intel.
Since that has become clear Intel has dropped some 20% while AMD has shot through the roof. They aren't over valued, the price has gone up because realistic expectation has improved significantly and depending on where AMD is even by the end fo 2019, $30 could be significantly undervalued.
Worth remembering, they fired a CEO for an old consensual relationship with a coworker.... after what 3/4 of a year in which the stock raised about 70%. You don't get fired over a nothing issue because everything is fantastic and you don't see the massive problem that guy led you into that will take a long while to fix. It just looks better to fire a guy for a relationship, than for leading them to a disastrous process node failure, a lack of forward momentum in their CPU architecture, a upcoming year long gap in which they can't be at all competitive with AMD in servers where most of their profit comes from.
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It's still at same level before Meltdown/Spectre.Oh they very much have. Down from $58 to $48 in the last 6 months, in the same period AMD are up from $15 to $28
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/INTC
So it was more like that Intel kept rising artificially high despite of what Intel's longer term situation had become.
Some already got their just deserts:Damn some people gunna get burned.your wallets not mine.
https://forums.overclockers.co.uk/threads/amd-short-sellers-pwned.18829568/#post-32074803
Ik people who short things are morons. Without inside knowledge, you are better off buying a lottery ticket
.I bought some amd shares at $14 last year and sold them at a loss of £800 as they started to go down to $12. If I had left them in it could have been much worse. I might have sold them at $10 or $9.
You're deluding yourself if you think none of this is having any effect on Intel's share price, explain the dramatic fall in their price.
So you call Intel's earlier stock price increase from winter as justified, despite of notable implications of Meltdown/Spectre to datacenter/server workload performance?
Current drop amounts to being only correction to that rise.
Soldato
- Joined
- 19 Oct 2008
- Posts
- 6,014
Nobody knows for sure. It could be either to be honest. Part of me thinks Intel will get a bigger kicking but I'm also aware how quickly they can bounce back in which case the current behaviour could indeed be a correction.
Place your bets now. Correction vs a continued downtrend
.Personally I'm on the side of a continued downtrend, but probably only like 60/40(ie, confidence not that high!). However, Intel are actually cheapest of the three NV, AMD and Intel, with AMD currently most expensive (vs earnings).
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AMD Is Negotiating A 7th Amendment To The WSA (Wafer Supply Agreement)
https://wccftech.com/amd-is-negotiating-a-7th-amendment-to-the-wsa-wafer-supply-agreement/
Since GlobalFoundries have abandoned 7nm, I think AMD will likely come out with a much better deal that will free up a good chunk of money for research and development
https://wccftech.com/amd-is-negotiating-a-7th-amendment-to-the-wsa-wafer-supply-agreement/
Since GlobalFoundries have abandoned 7nm, I think AMD will likely come out with a much better deal that will free up a good chunk of money for research and development
In this case GloFo are the ones not keeping their end of the deal, they are not supplying new processing nodes so why should AMD be tied to paying GloFo for something they are not getting?
Hopefully this is now the end of AMD being strapped to GloFo.
Soldato
Wrote few pages back that the freeze of 7nm by GloFo, AMD will cut ties with the last WSA.
In the mean time AMD announces Ryzen 2 based, Pro CPUs series.
https://www.guru3d.com/news-story/amd-announcing-new-athlon-consumer-and-ryzen-pro-processors.html
These are for workstations with extra security
In the mean time AMD announces Ryzen 2 based, Pro CPUs series.
https://www.guru3d.com/news-story/amd-announcing-new-athlon-consumer-and-ryzen-pro-processors.html
These are for workstations with extra security
Soldato
It makes me chuckle to see the likes of that Jamie fellow on the 9000 series thread banging on about "prove to me that AMD have the superior product" when all it takes is to look at these stock price increases and the technologies released that have fueled it.
Cutting edge process node, scalable chiplet design across their entire product stack, an interconnect system that can only improve over time, reduced costs and reliance on monolithic dies, an architecture devoid of most of the recently discovered vulnerabilities. All of the things that Intel does not have. Blue Team may have the advantage in pure grunt in their cores (which is why the 9900K is going to batter every 8 core out there for now), but that's it.
AMD stock price goes up, Intel stock price goes down. Surprising?
Cutting edge process node, scalable chiplet design across their entire product stack, an interconnect system that can only improve over time, reduced costs and reliance on monolithic dies, an architecture devoid of most of the recently discovered vulnerabilities. All of the things that Intel does not have. Blue Team may have the advantage in pure grunt in their cores (which is why the 9900K is going to batter every 8 core out there for now), but that's it.
AMD stock price goes up, Intel stock price goes down. Surprising?
Intel have better clock speed, but that really is it, for now... even the IPC is no better.
Ryzen 3000 will give Intel a real head ache.
Soldato
- Joined
- 19 Feb 2011
- Posts
- 5,849
Many people cannot see past "fastest gaming chip" and that is that, you have to remember the average consumer on these forums only cares about gaming, that is why they come to this site, to buy products to fulfil gaming ambitions.
Like Humbug says, once Intel loses its IPC lead, or should i really say, clock speed lead, those people will have no bullets left, its not like Intel has the better Archictecture, they definitely are not as good security wise as AMD currently, AMD is cheaper for now, so basically all they have is higher clocks which currently leads to better gaming performance.
If AMD can manage to get 5ghz out of Zen you will see who has the better Architecture then.
Soldato
We are in agreement, @humbug and @SiDeards73, like I said it just makes me chuckle that some people chow down so hard on Intel's big blue dingaling they're utterly blind to what's actually happening.
Not that I can be bothered to get involved in the "debate" any more with those people; even by the standards of these forums, that 9000 series thread is astoundingly petulant and toxic.
Not that I can be bothered to get involved in the "debate" any more with those people; even by the standards of these forums, that 9000 series thread is astoundingly petulant and toxic.