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AMD on the road to recovery.

KompuKare said:
Well @Grim5 reckons that 7nm TSMC wafers might be closer to $15k:
https://www.overclockers.co.uk/forums/posts/34608712/
Which changes things a bit. Also, it seems that my linked Ethercalc is down, so is an updated version:
https://ethercalc.net/php0rgyrm7ka
vIBC58b.png

Guess an online spreadsheet you don't have sign up to is too good to be true :(
Lots of guesswork about margins, selling prices, defects.
Click to expand...

If those margins are about right the have made 270 Million $ Profit on the consoles up to now, probably a bit more at this point at those figures are from Q4 last year.

225 Million $ Profit on Zen 3.

15 Million $ Profit on Navi 21.

If they had use the 67.000 wafers they used on consoles for the 5800X they would have made 9.7 Billion $ Profit, not that they could have sold 43 Million 5800X's :D but it does go to show how much more profit is in the Zen 3 CPU's vs Consoles and GPU's
 
They cost $30, maybe $40 or $50 to get them sales ready, they are not sold to board partners, a $450 5800X is probably sold to suppliers for $300 each minimum, $250 profit on each one.

This is how Intel make Billions, by selling millions of CPU's pocketing $250 on each one sold.
 
Its one supplier out of 100's, what's the ratio of Intel vs Ryzen for Dell? or HP? or IBM? Asus? Acer..... i could go on and on...
 
4K8KW10 said:
Why do you think that the picture above is not repeated amongst the others, too?
Click to expand...

Yes i know, but it shouldn't be ignored, AMD are doing well where they have that chance, and its pretty clear they couldn't replicate this across the board even without the vendor loyalty, AMD cannot supply 30 Million CPU's every quarter.
 
4K8KW10 said:
On the contrary, size is the most important detail in this context.
This company can be as large as all the others gathered...

There is a very significant difference between being the largest and being a local village shop !
Click to expand...

So like humbug has said and now you, IT'S ONE SUPPLIER!

Size is irrelevant to this statement
 
humbug said:
This is great but its only one supplier.


Sorry to go on... but just imagine that, if all AMD sold was Zen 3 CPU's and nothing else, and they sold every one they could make, AMD's income would match Intel's easily.

AMD GPU's and Consoles are a huge drain on their profitability.
Click to expand...
That's what I've been saying for a while now.
Obviously if they wanted to sell millions of 5800X they might have to reduce prices a bit.
I also keep saying Wall Street's obsession with margin is crazy short-termism.
Better to sell 50 million at @ $100 profit than 10 million at @ $200.
Marketshare also buys mindshare.

Plus going back, it was like certain GPUs they didn't want to push so that after the full sunken costs of the R&D, they'd rather sell a few.
Okay HBM might have been a production nightmare, but even with Hawaii, I though that making it so tightly packed (the last time AMD beat Nvidia decidedly on perf/area) whereas paying a bit more for each die (and saving some power via wider and slower) would have had a much better return on their R&D.
 
It's a great sign for AMD that their CPUs are selling more than Intel. Puget a great resource for workstations and benchmarks, in the past favoured Intel, but their benchmarks and I imagine their own customers favor AMD when looking for highest workstation performance and yes, stability. Single and Multicore AMD dominates. They also only sell stock machines, nullifying any Intel overlocking advantage.
 
Looks like AMD bought extra capacity:
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20210312PD203.html
60CfG0p.png

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1370335123078455297
GiLCYl4.png

Bidding war doesn't sound good for the end price though. Zen3 CCDs could easily absorb costlier wafers (as long as they don't start taking good CCDs and cut them down to 4 core Athlons), but GPUs not so much.
Q2 onwards and a follow-on tweet also mentioned the long lead times
AP1aK6c.png

So any extra supplies will take a while.
Wonder if there is any sign of console demand tapering off in 2021 as even 10-20% less console demand would do wonders for CPU and GPU supplies.
 
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