Armenia vs Azerbaijan

Dis86 said:
Been watching intently. What a total mess. Wonder who Russia will support.
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Russia will sell arms to both sides but they wont support one side over the other as in theory they will be opposite to Turkey which they would be incompatible with their wider interests afaik and USA is already an ally to Turkey minus Kim. Open conflict helps Isis not many others, I dont expect this to develop overall though Azibeijain might want progress
 
silversurfer said:
Russia will sell arms to both sides but they wont support one side over the other as in theory they will be opposite to Turkey which they would be incompatible with their wider interests afaik and USA is already an ally to Turkey minus Kim. Open conflict helps Isis not many others, I dont expect this to develop overall though Azibeijain might want progress
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Russia have a defensive pact in place with Armenia. If Armenia call it in then Russia are expected to come to their aid.
 
Armenia had a more pro-western leader in 2018,after the more pro-Russian leader who had been in for ages had to step down after protests. I don't know if that will affect how Russia responds in this regard.
 
CAT-THE-FIFTH said:
Armenia had a more pro-western leader in 2018,after the more pro-Russian leader who had been in for ages had to step down after protests. I don't know if that will affect how Russia responds in this regard.
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Well if Armenia uses the treaty and Russia declines, that puts everyone else who has such a treaty with Russia in a precarious position and it puts a spanner in their EEU project. Considering that Russia provided assistance to Syria, they clearly want to be seen as dependable allies.
 
StriderX said:
Well if Armenia uses the treaty and Russia declines, that puts everyone else who has such a treaty with Russia in a precarious position and it puts a spanner in their EEU project. Considering that Russia provided assistance to Syria, they clearly want to be seen as dependable allies.
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I meant more that Russia would be less proactive in helping until officially asked. Even in Syria they quietly helped the government for years beforehand the official request. This is why Azerbaijan and Turkey might have felt emboldened to act. Also Armenia can only ask for help as part of that agreement if they get physically invaded on internationally recognised boundaries.

Russia also does not want to see Armenia move away from its sphere of influence,so they might be wanting things to fester,to show that it's in Armenia's own interest to stay close.

This is what is happening in Belarus. The leader started denouncing Russia,so when problems started happening, Russia just kept quiet. They only offered help when the leader went to them and asked them publically for help.
 
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LeMson said:
Who are the goodies and baddies or Whose side are we on?
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It's a bit all over the place to be honest! The terrain being fought over is internationally recognised as being "owned" by Azerbaijan but the people who live there are 85%+ Armenian and in the early 90's, as the USSR fell, they declared their "territory" to be independent of Azerbaijan and fought a small conflict which saw Azerbaijan leave the area and the pro-Armenia population believe they'd won their independence.

However in reality they hadn't and the claim of independence was never internationally recognised and "peace talks" were still on-going to resolve the issue.

The two big issues break down to "land vs people", where the international community are being asked which is more important, the claim to the land by the owners or the wishes of the people who live on the land? As we saw in the Falklands, the UK falls inline with the right of population to self determine which country they want to be attached to, but in this case the land is still attached to another country which makes it similar to the Crimea which is "owned" by the Ukraine but populated by Russians, and therefore this situation is extremely similar to Russia's Crimea grab where Russia said "the majority of the people here are ethnically Russian and want independence, so we're annexing the land away from the Ukraine and giving it to the people".

When it comes to which nations are allies to each country, Azerbaijan is allied with Turkey, has a mostly Muslim population and is fairly authoritarian (inline with current Turkey) whilst Armenia is kind of allied with Russia through a defence pact (unlikely to be activated unless Turkey gets more involved), is mostly Christian and more liberal in outlook and giving more Freedoms to it's population all the time but its still got a way to go to ditch it's Soviet inspired outlook TBH.

For myself, I see this recent flare-up to be yet more Turkish world-stage "interference" vs Russian interests, following the Turkish invasion of Northern Syria (against Russian interests as a by-product) and involvement in Libya (again against Russian interests) yet this constant Erdogan vs Putin infighting is at odds with the many Russian deals Turkey received in the 2010's alongside a period of extremely cordial relations between Putin and Erdogan, so I wonder if Erdogan has found some kind of Russian involvement in the attempted 2016 Coup and that is why he is specifically sending his military against areas of Russian influence over the past few years, to extract punishment on Russia but without leading to direct Russia vs Turkey warfare?
 
Nasher said:
Naa we will stay out of this one. We don't have any interests in that part of the world.
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We don't really have any interests in this fight but there are a number of players involved by proxy where it could be a leveraged as a thorn in their side to press on when it comes to other matters.
 
Turkey has been bad for Europe for a long time, I hope we keep our noses out and wallets closed. The whole Bosnian Serb thing and annoying Albanians today is all because of thier history that gets no where near the spotlight that the slave trade does yet was essentially worse. They went into the Balkans attacking people there and when defeated, imposed taxes and one was the eldest son would be taken, Forcefully given a Muslim name and converted to Islam. They would be given a gold coin and sent in large groups every tax year to Istanbul. Once there they were given a Muslim and military education.


The funny and bad part was, They used these men as frontline assault troops instead of bleeding Turkic blood they used white converts against other whites. Ironically these troops turned out to be the elite of the entire army.


Even today, They deny things like the Armenian Genocide and they use migrant threats to blackmail the EU. And here again you see thier ugly head rearing up again. No one will admit that they are much worse than the Arabs in danger levels to any non Muslim country. I mean ask Greece about the constant air space violations on a daily basis or the recent exploration drilling they are doing in internatonal waters. I would for once, Like to see some asses kicked and Turkey put in place. It has been too long and they are getting very bold.
 
LeMson said:
We have had no wars since trump came in, one of the most peaceful president ever?

And theres oil there or near there.......
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They've just had smaller wars on their own streets. Azerbaijan is the birthplace of oil! Although I don't see any involvement coming from the west in this and hopefully shouldn't require it from elsewhere.
 
Rofflay said:
Turkey has been bad for Europe for a long time, I hope we keep our noses out and wallets closed. The whole Bosnian Serb thing and annoying Albanians today is all because of thier history that gets no where near the spotlight that the slave trade does yet was essentially worse. They went into the Balkans attacking people there and when defeated, imposed taxes and one was the eldest son would be taken, Forcefully given a Muslim name and converted to Islam. They would be given a gold coin and sent in large groups every tax year to Istanbul. Once there they were given a Muslim and military education.


The funny and bad part was, They used these men as frontline assault troops instead of bleeding Turkic blood they used white converts against other whites. Ironically these troops turned out to be the elite of the entire army.


Even today, They deny things like the Armenian Genocide and they use migrant threats to blackmail the EU. And here again you see thier ugly head rearing up again. No one will admit that they are much worse than the Arabs in danger levels to any non Muslim country. I mean ask Greece about the constant air space violations on a daily basis or the recent exploration drilling they are doing in internatonal waters. I would for once, Like to see some asses kicked and Turkey put in place. It has been too long and they are getting very bold.
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Oh my the racism and xenophobia in this post. Unbelievable.

Islam is the religion of peace!
 
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