Autonomous Vehicles

[Glaucus]

economics for a start, the rest of the world will implement AV and will have a massive cost saving over those that dont. its a huge cost as everything has to be transported.
That's the strongest reason for why its unsustainable but not the only reason.

and no it won't just be replacing one issue with another. IT IS SAFER. meaning you're replacing lots of accidents with few but maybe new reasons for accidents.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

It won't solve all the safety issues, just replace them with new ones.

It certainly won't make it any cheaper, they will make sure of that. In fact it might get more expensive. Look how people who have no choice but to use trains get shafted every year, there's no alternative to many so they can charge what they like.

Evidence shows that it will significantly improve safety though, and unless we suddenly some evolution within humans we are pretty much at our peak ability to drive.
Computers are continuing to get more powerful, and AI is fledgling right now. So whilst we do not see nor potentially want AI in vehicular transport its not impossible that that would not become reality at some point.

 

[Joe T]

This has been the same for the past 100 years. Why is it such a problem now? All those things have gotten better over time so again why is it not sustainable if we can sustain it now and everything is getting better?

None of these things have remained the same for 100 years. More people, more journeys, more cars on the road, more trucks on the road, etc, have made them much much worse.

Any things that have improved (e.g. deaths per mile driven, rather than deaths overall) have been as a result of technology. Now you're saying we shouldn't use technology to make a further significant improvement?

It's the visionaries that have changed the world for the better. Not the people who have said that the status quo is fine.

 

[Nasher]

Evidence shows that it will significantly improve safety though, and unless we suddenly some evolution within humans we are pretty much at our peak ability to drive.
Computers are continuing to get more powerful, and AI is fledgling right now. So whilst we do not see nor potentially want AI in vehicular transport its not impossible that that would not become reality at some point.

But looking at the stats. The self driving cars have a worse record than I do for accidents and near misses :/

Also it's not really AI.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

This has been the same for the past 100 years. Why is it such a problem now? All those things have gotten better over time so again why is it not sustainable if we can sustain it now and everything is getting better?

Cost of motoring is not going to get any cheaper with Autonomous cars either. Government will not allow it to happen. My current cost of motoring is more taxation than anything else. Infact my VED is more expensive than insurance now.

Pollution doesn't even have anything too do with autonomous cars either!

Its like arguing we should have stuck with wooden sail boats, I mean they improved for hundreds of years as well. They kept getting better, it didn't stop them being superceded by something better.

Motoring may get cheaper it may not, the two are not related. Whilst there is significant tax involved thats because its an easy way to collect the tax needed. If we were twice as productive, we could in fact tax at a lower rate.

Pollution would be improved, again its proven, driving vehicles very closely together improves the joint efficiency, this isnt going to happen without AV, some sales reps on the M25 are trying hard to emulate it now though

 

[Joe T]

But looking at the stats. The self driving cars have a worse record than I do for accidents and near misses :/

You really dont know how to use statistics.

 

[adam cool dude]

economics for a start, the rest of the world will implement AV and will have a massive cost saving over those that dont. its a huge cost as everything has to be transported.
That's the strongest reason for why its unsustainable but not the only reason.

and no it won't just be replacing one issue with another. IT IS SAFER. meaning you're replacing lots of accidents with few but maybe new reasons for accidents.

Where are we going to put all those people that now do not have a job? You are talking 600,000 jobs wiped out in the UK alone. Place them in the cab and you are not really gaining anything.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

But looking at the stats. The self driving cars have a worse record than I do for accidents and near misses :/

Also it's not really AI.

Pointless, who cares about you. You are an utterly insignificant statistic. We have to look at the whole, and the current non AI, that was my point, vehicles are statistically safer, so if we replaced every car this moment with one of them (assuming we could) accidents (really incidents, accidents indicates they weren't avoidable which most of the time better driving would have avoided) rates would drop noticeably.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Where are we going to put all those people that now do not have a job? You are talking 600,000 jobs wiped out in the UK alone. Place them in the cab and you are not really gaining anything.

Are you an actual luddite?

Its been the age old scream of people not willing/wanting to change.

As spreadsheet Phil said on marr last week, what happened to the million typists when the PC took over? Are they sitting on the unemployed market today, no of course not

 

[Nasher]

Pointless, who cares about you. You are an utterly insignificant statistic. We have to look at the whole, and the current non AI, that was my point, vehicles are statistically safer, so if we replaced every car this moment with one of them (assuming we could) accidents (really incidents, accidents indicates they weren't avoidable which most of the time better driving would have avoided) rates would drop noticeably.

But then one software bug means they all crash when in that same situation. As happened to Tesla autopilot. That was a pretty small sample, times it by a few 10s of millions of cars and you have a lot of deaths.

 

[Glaucus]

Where are we going to put all those people that now do not have a job? You are talking 600,000 jobs wiped out in the UK alone. Place them in the cab and you are not really gaining anything.

it'll be way more than 600,00 jobs. automation in many secors is coming.
which is why we need to start thinking about and slowly implement universal basic income.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

But then one software bug means they all crash when in that same situation. As happened to Tesla autopilot.

Yep, so that means one simple fix and it won't happen again, where as with humans even vastly experienced drivers can make a mistake on something they have done plenty of times before.

 

[Glaucus]

But then one software bug means they all crash when in that same situation. As happened to Tesla autopilot. That was a pretty small sample, times it by a few 10s of millions of cars and you have a lot of deaths.

it caused one crash not thousands and it was fixed.

 

[Nasher]

it caused one crash not thousands and it was fixed.

It happened to a few people afaik, but only one death. Plus all the other incidents, like the google car that drove in to a bus.

Humans won't all make the same mistakes when presented with the same situation. A computer script can't learn or think for itself (which is all current "AI" really is). That's why real AI is the missing piece to make it all work, but it could be a very long way off yet. They will struggle with it until we're there.

 

[Glaucus]

It happened to a few people afaik, but only one death.

Humans won't all make the same mistakes when presented with the same situation. A computer script can't learn or think for itself. That's why real AI is the missing piece to make it all work, but it could be a very long way off yet. They will struggle with it until we're there.

no, it happened once.
and secondly nor will a AV as it has many sensors and you dont get teh exact same scenario every time.
for instance, the tesla crash happened once but was encountered thousands of times. It just so happened that the sun was and the truck was in the exact spot, it mistook it for a sign. This now cannot happen.
where one human mess up you can not prevent every other human messing up in similar ways.

Actually, computers can and do learn.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_learning

your arguments are based on ignorance, laziness and ideological position.

 

[Nasher]

Well, when the story broke there were other people saying they had to take back control in similar situations.

It's still all basically a script. The I in AI means intelligence. No one has made a real computer intelligence yet.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

It happened to a few people afaik, but only one death.

Humans won't all make the same mistakes when presented with the same situation. A computer script can't learn or think for itself. That's why real AI is the missing piece to make it all work, but it could be a very long way off yet. They will struggle with it until we're there.

Humans wont all make the same mistake no, but they are unpredictable, so they will maybe not make that mistake today, then make it tomorrow. You can fix a driver, you can try, but he may make that mistake in 20 years.

Your really confused on AI. full blown AI in a car would be terrible, the point is it learns, so it could for example learn bad behaviour such as driving down the wrong side of the road. We don't want 2,000,000 cars all learning their own bit, we want a system where all 2,000,000 cars do exactly the same, then when an improvement can be spotted and delivered we can update all 2,000,000 immediately.

 

[Nasher]

Yes but they are calling it AI, it's not AI by the scientific definition of it.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Well, when the story broke there were other people saying they had to take back control in similar situations.

It's still all basically a script. The I in AI means intelligence. No one has made a real computer intelligence yet.

I believe they were supposed to be actively monitoring the system because they are not allowed to offer full driverless right now, thats the point, driver supervision you could call it.
The guy who died wasn't, he was not paying attention, if he had of been he would have seen the truck and been able to stop.

 

[Glaucus]

Yes but they are calling it AI, it's not AI by the scientific definition of it.

another ignorance part, there are many different levels and forms of ai.