Autonomous Vehicles

[sesevans]

Just reading an article published last onto about automated lorries and came across this.



Now, in that situation what would you do?

Split second decision as you career towards them... what’s your answer. Especially pertinent to those who believe automated vehicles can’t make this sort of decision.

TBH I’d be pretty relieved to not have to make that decision and offload it to a computer if I actually came across a situation like that!

Too hypothetical to get my head around it.

You might not know that by the time AVs are operating at scale, they will probably have redundant brakes...ie the ability to over-ride primary brakes. There is a reason why today Waymo's AVs being ordered from Fiat Chrysler cost $ 250,000 on the road rather than $ 50,000 for the same non-AV Chrysler Pacifica SUV. And why they cost $ 100,000 per annum to maintain. And I suggest it is not simply the LIDAR, additional cameras and sensors that add up to the $ 200,000 up front cost difference.

Without trying to over-analyse your scenario, the human driver today has a split second to react to your scenario. The AV will have seen the exact simulation you describe and know to activate the redundant braking system or figure out how to swerve in less time than the human driver can react.

 

[sesevans]

In California in 2017, Waymo reports its total autonomously driven miles at 352,000 with a minor number of disengagements.....63. But because it has moved its fleet of AVs to two dozen cities in the US, esp in Phoenix, its total number of California miles is down from the previous year.

GM Cruise comes in second but with 22 "fender benders".

https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/31/16956902/california-dmv-self-driving-car-disengagement-2017

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Just reading an article published last onto about automated lorries and came across this.



Now, in that situation what would you do?

Split second decision as you career towards them... what’s your answer. Especially pertinent to those who believe automated vehicles can’t make this sort of decision.

TBH I’d be pretty relieved to not have to make that decision and offload it to a computer if I actually came across a situation like that!

Ah, see I see option 1 as least impact, woman dont want to kill, baby really dont want to kill, criminal and cat unimportant, option 2 girl dont want to kill, baby really dont want to kill, pregnant really don't want to kill, dog unimportant

So its quite clear which ones will "get it" for me

But in the split second would that decision be made, I suspect not. In reality I bet if you were about to crash in group 1 you would take evasive action and go "oh sheet avoiding that now I am going to kill this lot instead"

 

[sesevans]

I am still prepared to give Tesla the benefit of the doubt about their future growth but it is getting a little harder when they keep delaying delivery dates and performance metrics. For example, I recall they first said they would have their AV travel across the US by mid 2017, then by end 2017 and now, sometime in 2018. Considering how much data you say they have their on-road vehicles reporting, you would have thought they were well ahead of where they seem to be on AVs.

Meanwhile you have to appreciate the approach taken by Waymo, almost the complete opposite to Tesla. Waymo is not and does not want to be an vehicle manufacturer. Instead, like say Apple in smartphones, they select a manufacturer to take Apple's fully designed product and fabricate it according to Apple's specs. So Waymo/Fiat Chrysler seems a lot like Apple/Foxconn. Also Waymo has lined up other partners to help them deliver an on-road experience: Autonation for parts and repairs, Avis for maintenance, Lyft for additional options on ride sharing, etc.

Waymo appears to be moving towards launching a ride-hailing service in at least 25 US cities in 2018 having recently ordered thousands of AVs from Fiat. Each AV must carry a list price of $ 250,000 and an annual maintenace cost of $ 100,000. Hence Waymo is making a huge financial commitment to its ride hailing service. Clearly they believe their technology in their Level 4 vehicle is ready for prime time.

It is probably worth noting that the markets value Fiat Chrysler as more valuable a franchise now than Ford yet Ford has paid huge sums to buy autonomous technology to vertically integrate both manufacturing and software/AI. It will be interesting if they continue this approach. A big reorganisation plan is expected to be announced by Ford soon.

Further thoughts on where Tesla ranks in AVs v Waymo or GM/Cruise:

I assume that Tesla is using its existing fleet in "shadow mode": running the autonomous code in parallel with the actual software, and tracking deviations between the two modes and the driver actions. This is more difficult to do than Waymo's approach. I am not yet convinced that Tesla having data on millions of miles driven with their sensor technology is enough to catch up to Waymo's package of radar, LIDAR, cameras and sensors. Tesla is not using an HD map or highly accurate GPS, nor LIDAR.

 

[Entai]

Just out of curiosity @sesevans , are you employed by Waymo or an associate company of Google or Waymo ?

Like I say just curious as you often appear to be expounding the virtues of Waymo and doubting or slightly dissing other manufacturers.

Not meant in a rude way, nor being negative towards you or your opinions/ideas, purely as I say curious due to the way some of your posts come across.

 

[sesevans]

Just out of curiosity @sesevans , are you employed by Waymo or an associate company of Google or Waymo ?

Like I say just curious as you often appear to be expounding the virtues of Waymo and doubting or slightly dissing other manufacturers.

Not meant in a rude way, nor being negative towards you or your opinions/ideas, purely as I say curious due to the way some of your posts come across.

No and no.

Just a very interested bystander on AVs. You will note that most of my comments are fully supported by links to some of the major tech blog sites that provide coverage of trends in the field of AVs.

 

[sesevans]

The trial is set to begin tomorrow in San Francisco between Waymo and Uber. The 10 person jury has been selected. It is expected to last three weeks. Waymo is seeking up to $ 1.8 billion from Uber accusing them of stealing trade secrets.

https://patch.com/california/mounta...laims-uber-stole-driverless-car-trade-secrets

 

[McPhee]

Just reading an article published last onto about automated lorries and came across this.

Now, in that situation what would you do?

Split second decision as you career towards them... what’s your answer. Especially pertinent to those who believe automated vehicles can’t make this sort of decision.

TBH I’d be pretty relieved to not have to make that decision and offload it to a computer if I actually came across a situation like that!

Not every short person is a child. Not every child is short.

Not every convict is guilty. Not every liberate person is innocent.

Being pregnant doesn't always result in an obvious "baby bump". Having a "baby bump" doesn't mean you're pregnant; you could just be fat.

Let's avoid this lady with the pushchair and kill this bloke with the rucksack instead. Oh. The pushchair had a dog in it. And that wasn't a rucksack. It was a baby sling. ****.

It's better that such systems don't discriminate, focussing on overall lowest loss of life. There's no other fair way to act. It's too easy to deliberately kill the wrong person.

Besides, if this actually happened, I doubt I'd be the only bloke walking to work clean-shaven, wearing a blonde wig, and with a pillow stuffed up my jumper

Driver clearly not monitoring the situation constantly as it clearly says in the Tesla owners manual they should be, so purely the driver at fault and not the vehicle.


The issue here is that the Tesla is not really (in that manner) a true AV, as most of it's systems need constant monitoring, as it clearly says in the manual.

A true level 4 or level 5 AV, does not need to rely on constant monitoring by a human, so can adapt and can deal with situations like a parked vehicle easily.

Viral marketing is something of a problem for Autopilot safety. People over-estimating the capabilities of the system, despite Tesla warning and informing drivers of the capability of the system. YouTube is full of people trying to pass off cars with Autopilot as something they're not; fully autonomous cars. For reference, see the "Orange Trick" and people claiming they took a nap/watched a movie/played a videogame while the car drove for hours, unaided. It's all fine until someone parks a fire engine in the outside lane of a motorway.

 

[sesevans]

Day 1 of Waymo vs Uber trial. Memorable quote: "Mr. Kalanick, the CEO at the time at Uber, made a decision that winning was more important than obeying the law."

https://gizmodo.com/waymo-attorney-says-uber-s-travis-kalanick-cheated-to-w-1822730462

 

[sesevans]

Days 2 and 3 of the trial. Seems Waymo is slowly building its case but since the alleged theft of 8 trade secrets by Uber of Waymo LIDAR technology is largely hidden from public view, it is not yet possible to call a conclusion. However the approach that Uber is taking of trying to be seen as an underdog is not working according to this link by The Verge:

https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/7/1...i-super-unpumped-cheat-codes-corpse-dropkicks

 

[sesevans]

Waymo and Uber have agreed to settle their trade secret thefts dispute with Uber paying Wayo $ 244 million, expressing regret and agreeing not to use Waymo trade secrets in future.

 

[sesevans]

Medium: 73 mind blowing features of our driverless cars and trucks:

https://medium.com/hult-business-sc...lications-of-a-driverless-future-58d23d1f338d

 

[sesevans]

According to a NY Times article today entitled "Google Makes its Special AI chips available to others", Google has shared its so-called TPU chip already with Lyft, its partner in autonomous vehicles.

According to the article:

"At the end of last year, hoping to accelerate its work on driverless cars, Lyft began testing Google’s new chips.

Using the chips, Lyft wanted to accelerate the development of systems that allow driverless cars to, say, identify street signs or pedestrians. “Training” these systems can take days, but with the new chips, the hope is that this will be reduced to hours.

“There is huge potential here,” said Anantha Kancherla, who oversees software for the Lyft driverless car project."

Interesting to understand that Google's efforts in building a driverless system involves them making their own chips for advancing their AI efforts.

 

[sesevans]

Bloomberg: "
Self-Driving Cars Will Kill Things You Love (And A Few You Hate)"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-will-kill-things-you-love-and-a-few-you-hate

 

[sesevans]

"In the debate on who will own Autonomous cars, Hyundai picks Uber".

Says that in the near future, the owner of self driving vehicles will not be individuals but owners of mobility-service providers.

http://www.ttnews.com/articles/debate-who-will-own-autonomous-cars-hyundai-picks-uber

 

[sesevans]

Report says London not ready for Autonomous Vehicles before the 2030s.

While the British Government has predicted that connected autonomous vehicles will be on British roads by 2021, infrastructure and connectivity issues will likely mean that London will not be ready for them until a decade later.

Do you agree?

http://www.ttnews.com/articles/london-not-ready-driverless-cars-2030s-report-says

 

[Nasher]

I think 2030s is optimistic for old cities like London, some parts may never be suitable for AVs. They would be better off re-installing the tram system.

 

[sesevans]

Exciting news: first driverless commercial ride hailing service approved for Waymo in Arizona. Waymo has ordered thousands of its vehicles and plans to launch an app for users of this service. Should be highly competitive priced service. Service to start in 2018.

How long will it be before Waze users in Phoenix start to see the Waymo driverless taxi service compare the cost of your ride to theirs??

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...or-commercial-driverless-ride-hailing-service

 

[sesevans]

duplicate

 

[sesevans]

I sometimes wonder why this Community, which is a very forward thinking Community when it comes to the topic of future "Motors", spends so little time on the topic of autonomous vehicles. Any rational person knows that this technology is coming to the US first but surely the UK cannot be too much later? With Waymo launching is self driving commercial taxi service in Phoenix Arizona this year, I expect the tempo to pick up here when people see that AVs are a reality, not something from science fiction.