There are surely other means if your goal is safer roads.
For one - legally mandated vehicle performance tracking. Your vehicle records its location, speed, acceleration and various other parameters like an aeroplane's black box. This data is automatically periodically sent for analysis - like when you recharge.
Yes you would still face the prospect of criminals et al removing/hacking/disabling the devices. But you could also reduce the need for police manning mobile speed cameras. Maybe couple it with monitoring technology embedded in the roads themselves, street lights, etc. Every street light could be turned into an average speed monitoring device, communicating with something embedded in each vehicle. Etc, etc.
For me I see this as a more tolerable form of technology impacting my driving experience (mostly because it won't). I can still hop in the car and go where I please, how I please. So long as I drive legally and safely I have nothing to worry about from the systems monitoring my performance. And perhaps idiots will get caught out/grassed up by their own cars...
For me, personally, the interesting thing about AVs isn't their safety. It's the idea that we might not need to own a car but could summon one. I'd just personally like to be able to summon one and then drive it manually. That would be pretty cool.
The goal isn't just safer roads. That's almost more of a byproduct than anything else. For me, the interest in AV is so I can do something else rather than have to drive.
That 5am two hour journey I need to regularly take? I can snooze until my destination... Driving long distances, I can sit reading a book or browsing the internet or play a game rather than stare in front for hours on end... Being able to stick the "kids" into the car and get it to drop them off at school or their club... The aim being having what is essentially a personal chauffeur without the cost.
That doesn't mean I don't want to drive at all, but there are a lot of journeys and situations I would prefer not to have to. Perhaps I'm feeling tired after a hard days skiing, I can snooze while it drives me back as another example.
It also benefits those that can't drive at the moment, the disabled, the elderly, those that never got their driving licence/nervous, children etc etc.
Realistically it's unlikely that "manual" driving will be banned in our lifetimes. Sure, it may be restricted. Perhaps to only one lane on the motorway, outside of towns etc, but that's not exactly unique. We already have plenty of roads where certain types of transportation are banned. Whether that be scooters, bikes, tractors etc on some dual carriageways and motorways, whether that be cars in town centrest, or other examples.
OK. 30-40 years is a lot more realistic a timescale than some expectations I've heard lately
There are a lot of people who think this technology is just around the corner, but I think 30+ years is much more realistic.
As others have discussed, realistically 30-40 years will be the timeframe where most vehicles sold are likely to be level 4/5. Previous milestones will probably include (some already happened, some from company announcements and some hypothesised):
2017: Level 3 autonomous lorries are on the road (there's a person in the cab, but they don't have to be at the wheel), level 4 cars are driving around as "taxis" (a "driver" sits in the back seat for now, expected to change this year with rule changes), picking up real customers in select cities to prove proof of concept.
2019: GM are hoping to have level 4 ride hailing service in a limited number of cities, with no "operators" - legislation depending.
2021: Ford aim to have it's own ride hailing service up and running.
https://media.ford.com/content/ford...onomous-vehicle-for-ride-sharing-in-2021.html
2022: ~5 years - from now the first level 4 lorries will be doing test runs on real roads without drivers/operators in the cab. There may well be the first level 4 consumer vehicle available from someone like Tesla, allowing fully autonomous running in select locations.
2027: ~10 years - the first commercial runs of level 4 lorries will start appearing. Probably about the time when several vehicles will be available to the public that are level 4/5 and become more mainstream.
2050 ~ most vehicles will have an AV options package for people to choose and vehicles become truly level 5, able to travel virtually anywhere (excluding some random mountain track covered in deep snow, for example). Most lorries and almost all taxis will be autonomous vehicles with no operator in the vehicle (but perhaps a connection to a central depot to take over if required in exceptional circumstances).
